Week 1 NFL Best Bets – Totals
Point spreads aren’t the only Week 1 NFL odds that have seen action all summer; totals bettors have also been using their bankrolls to move numbers across the board. However, just like the point spread markets, much of the opening value on these totals has already been scooped up now that game week is finally here.
Thankfully, the very nature of totals brings more volatility to game outcomes than point spreads do, meaning missing out on the absolute best of the number isn’t as bad. Don’t get me wrong: bettors always want the best possible line on any wager, and key numbers still matter for totals. But while point spreads frequently land right around the closing line, totals are far more erratic. This volatility gives you a bit more wiggle room to work with, even in a highly efficient market like NFL betting.
Here’s hoping the following Week 1 NFL totals best bets make the absolute most of that extra wiggle room.
Game #1: Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Total set at 40.5
NFL Week 1 Totals Best Bet: Cleveland Browns Team Total Under 14.5 (-110)
If you read my Week 1 Best Bets piece for point spreads, you’ll know I had no problem going against teams with new coaching staffs. A complete overhaul of the head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator is my favorite scenario of the bunch, and Baltimore isn’t the only franchise in that spot this season. They aren’t even the only franchise in their division in that role.
The Cleveland Browns also went about replacing those top three coaching positions this offseason, trusting former Ravens OC Todd Monken to be the captain of the ship now, as he put together a staff of first-time coordinators behind him.
Three new coaching faces beginning their career on the road always scream “fade spot” to me, and backing the Jaguars on the point spread this week is still a strong consideration. But I’m never excited about laying more than a touchdown with any NFL team in Week 1, just because of the uncertainty in current data.
Instead, if we stay along that same line of thought and believe Jacksonville is likely to win easily, going ‘under’ the Cleveland Browns team total makes just as much sense. Being in that heavy underdog role further supports the Under.
Over the last three NFL seasons, there have been nine different teams that closed as at least a six-point underdog in Week 1. In those games, only three teams managed to score 20+ points, and only five of them would have surpassed this 14.5 total (55.5%).
Last year, it applied to four Week 1 games, and the team totals by those squads were 20, 6, 13, and 12 points. So I’ll take my chances that this regime change in Cleveland, combined with QB Deshaun Watson starting a football game for the first time since Oct 2024, brings a similar point total for the Browns’ first game in 2026.
Game #2: New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions – Total set at 50
NFL Week 1 Totals Best Bet: Detroit Lions Team Total Over 28.5
The Saints/Lions game is another contest where we have a favorite of at least six points, and I did consider adding the New Orleans team total Under 20.5 to this preview for all the same reasons the Cleveland team total ‘under’ made the card.
However, Detroit’s defense still has plenty of questions I need to see answered this year before I can begin to seriously trust them. With the 13.7 Opponent Yards per Point the Lions defense allowed a season ago, only marginally better than the Saints at 13.3, it’s quite easy to envision this game turning into one of those highly entertaining, indoor shootouts we’ve seen for years in Detroit (and New Orleans) home games.
In fact, both teams being highly comfortable playing indoors made the full game ‘over’ the first consideration for this game, but those conflicting numbers suggesting Week 1 underdogs of 6+ struggle to score forced this pivot.
Trusting the Lions to score is much easier to do, especially since they finished last season with the most points per game at home (32.5). They scored at least 24 points in all eight of their home games last year as well, and the Lions’ first home game of the season has seen them score 52, 26, 31, and 35 points in the past four seasons.
If Detroit can come anywhere near that average of 36 points per home opener that those past results equal, this best bet will be an easy winner.
Game #3: Arizona Cardinals vs LA Chargers – Total set at 47.5
NFL Week 1 Totals Best Bet: Arizona/LA Chargers Under 47.5
The Arizona Cardinals are the third and final team catching at least six points this week, and with a team total of 17.5 for the game, going ‘under’ that number based on the data I’ve already shared here makes sense too.
But it’s the full game ‘under’ that I’ve settled on for this contest, in part because of those low point totals for 6+ point Week 1 underdogs, but AFC/NFC Week 1 games have also been on quite the low-scoring run as well.
Overall, Week 1 non-conference games are 4-8 O/U the past three years, going 0-2 O/U a season ago. Neither of last year’s games saw more than 36 total points scored (Jax/Car and Hou/LAR), and if you graded all 10 contests against this 47.5 number, the overall O/U record goes up one more in favor of the ‘under’ at 3-9 O/U.
We are talking about final scores of 36, 23, 62, 28, 41, 46, 50, 51, 41, 31, 37, and 45 points, good enough for an average of just 40.9 points per game. A full touchdown below the current number for this game. That’s a big enough margin for error in the handicap that still allows so many likely game scripts to find a way to land below this total (33-14, 30-17, 27-20).
And that average drops even further if you include the 23 total points we saw from New England and Seattle on Opening Night.
The situational spot for Arizona- a 6+ point underdog with a rookie head coach making his debut on the road – already suggests the Cardinals are going to have trouble scoring, and that’s before even mentioning the limited offensive upside QB Jacoby Brissett brings or a Chargers defense that was one of only eight teams to allow less than 20 points per game (19.8) and was among the best against the pass specifically.
If this game plays out like the point spread suggests – an easy Chargers victory – there is going to be plenty of opportunity for LAC head coach Jim Harbaugh to do what he loves to do: run the football to salt away victories.
He did it for years at Michigan. In his two seasons with the Chargers, LA is 2-8 O/U during the first five games of a season, going 1-4 O/U each time.
Let’s hope that the run of early-season ‘unders’ continues for this Chargers franchise this week.
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