Live NBA Basketball Odds & Lines

A point spread creates a margin between the favorite and underdog so there’s more parity between them. You decide which team will cover its spread, and here’s an example:

• Atlanta Hawks +5.5 – Hawks can lose by up to five points and still win your bet.
• New York Knicks – 5.5 – Knicks have to win by at least six points to cover their spread.

Point spreads are exciting because 5–6 points here or there is merely a small run in the NBA. They get even more interesting when you consider the blowout factor.

Unlike with other major sports, teams can rapidly stretch their leads. A game can be close for three quarters, only for it to quickly turn into an 18-point blowout due to foul trouble, bench mismatches, starter fatigue, and today’s 3-point barrages.

Those -12.5 spreads suddenly don’t seem so difficult for favorites to cover when considering all these factors. Late-game strategies further this idea since teams don’t just give up when they’re losing late in the fourth. They foul and extend the game, which can easily flip a spread in the closing seconds.

Coaches matter too because some empty their benches early, while others keep their starters on the floor. So if a Nick Nurse-coached team is favored big, the blowout factor might come into play since he doesn’t pull starters until late.

Factors you want to remember before placing a spread bet include bench depth, 3-point shooting percentages, coaching tendencies, travel schedules, and back-to-back games. These aspects really add up in fourth quarters, when most spread bets are decided.

Totals are the combined score of both teams. You decide whether those teams will go over or under the total, as seen below:

• Miami Heat over 229.5 (-110) – Both teams need to score 230+ points for a winning bet.
• Cleveland Cavaliers under 229.5 (-110) – These teams must score 229 or less.

The first thing you’re guessing here is the game pace. Most NBA teams play fast, but a few possessions one way or the other mean everything with totals bets. Stats you’ll want to look at include offensive rating, defensive rating, and pace metrics (i.e. possessions per 48 minutes).

Other points to consider include if key defenders are out, how well teams do in transition, and how good they are at defending 3’s. Two teams with poor perimeter defense but great transition offense can blitz the over.

Rest between games is another crucial factor to include in your strategy. Two tired teams meeting on a back-to-back will have heavy legs that lead to flat jumpers. Meanwhile, squads with 1–2 days rest are more likely to hit on all cylinders and push towards the over.