Best NBA Basketball Betting Sites & Odds

A point spread creates a margin between the favorite and underdog so there’s more parity between them. You decide which team will cover its spread, and here’s an example:

• Atlanta Hawks +5.5 – Hawks can lose by up to five points and still win your bet.
• New York Knicks – 5.5 – Knicks have to win by at least six points to cover their spread.

Point spreads are exciting because 5–6 points here or there is merely a small run in the NBA. They get even more interesting when you consider the blowout factor.

Unlike with other major sports, teams can rapidly stretch their leads. A game can be close for three quarters, only for it to quickly turn into an 18-point blowout due to foul trouble, bench mismatches, starter fatigue, and today’s 3-point barrages.

Those -12.5 spreads suddenly don’t seem so difficult for favorites to cover when considering all these factors. Late-game strategies further this idea since teams don’t just give up when they’re losing late in the fourth. They foul and extend the game, which can easily flip a spread in the closing seconds.

Coaches matter too because some empty their benches early, while others keep their starters on the floor. So if a Nick Nurse-coached team is favored big, the blowout factor might come into play since he doesn’t pull starters until late.

Factors you want to remember before placing a spread bet include bench depth, 3-point shooting percentages, coaching tendencies, travel schedules, and back-to-back games. These aspects really add up in fourth quarters, when most spread bets are decided.

Totals are the combined score of both teams. You decide whether those teams will go over or under the total, as seen below:

• Miami Heat over 229.5 (-110) – Both teams need to score 230+ points for a winning bet.
• Cleveland Cavaliers under 229.5 (-110) – These teams must score 229 or less.

The first thing you’re guessing here is the game pace. Most NBA teams play fast, but a few possessions one way or the other mean everything with totals bets. Stats you’ll want to look at include offensive rating, defensive rating, and pace metrics (i.e. possessions per 48 minutes).

Other points to consider include if key defenders are out, how well teams do in transition, and how good they are at defending 3’s. Two teams with poor perimeter defense but great transition offense can blitz the over.

Rest between games is another crucial factor to include in your strategy. Two tired teams meeting on a back-to-back will have heavy legs that lead to flat jumpers. Meanwhile, squads with 1–2 days rest are more likely to hit on all cylinders and push towards the over.

While sportsbooks can get creative with player props, the most common ones include:

• Player points over/under
• Player rebounds over/under
• Player assists over/under
• Combo stats, usually pts+reb+ast or pts+reb
• 3-pointers made over/under

Depending on how big the game is, you may see others like player X to get a double-double, triple-double, or 20+ points. Whatever the case, the same general stats and concepts apply to your odds of winning NBA player props:

• Minutes projections: More court time means more chances to hit the over.
• Usage rate: Highly relevant to points and assist props.
• Totals: A higher over/under boosts the odds of players hitting the over on stats.
• Blowout risk: Look at a game’s point spread and the factors we covered under the spread section, then determine the risk of a player sitting late during a blowout.
• Game pace: Use this stat to figure out how many possessions your player’s team will get.
• Opponent’s defensive strengths & weaknesses: E.g. Think under on a point guard’s assists if they’re playing a team that defends the pick-and-roll well.

Always think about player props in terms of both pure stats and opportunities. For example, a high usage rate, minutes projection, and limited blowout risk creates a stronger over opportunity.

Some teams start off hot, others need a few dozen shots and a halftime speech to warm up. First quarter and first half bets focus on these trends and include moneylines, spreads, and totals.

You might like first quarter and half wagers if you’re tired of late-game volatility. These bets aren’t as vulnerable to backdoor covers through meaningless three-pointers and foul-clogged fourth quarters.

First quarter/half wagers are also appealing because they stick to the script better. You have less chance of losing due to a fluke injury or coaches making dramatic strategy changes later in the game.

The Zig-Zag Theory involves betting on a team that lost their previous game, or even failed to cover its spread. The logic is that the losing squad will make adjustments and come out with more fire next time.

It makes sense considering that teams see each other at least four straight times in a best-of-seven. The only issue is that oddsmakers are well aware of the Zig-Zag strategy and how many people believe in it.

We recommend asking the deeper questions. Was the loss due to a poor shooting night? Did a key player get into early foul trouble? Was one side’s bench just not able to keep up with the other?

A losing team is more likely to zag the next game when the loss was due to variance rather than personnel. They can come out and shoot better the next time, for example, but they can’t replace their bench mid-series.

Load management became a factor in NBA betting during the mid-2010s when a few teams started doing it. Now, you have to account for stars possibly sitting out for rest purposes. Otherwise, you risk seeing your carefully-research bet swing dramatically after the announcement comes.

Keys that will help you predict load management scenarios include:

• Second night of a back-to-back
• End of a 4–5 game stretch in a week’s time
• Injury reports for questionable or rest designations
• A player’s age, especially those in their 30s.
• Tailend of long road trips
• Nagging injuries that a star is dealing with

Besides knowing the factors to look for, you should also pay close attention to local beat reporters on X. They break news the quickest and have the most insight into a team’s locker room.

Keep in mind that load management doesn’t always have a dramatic impact. If only one star among a Big 3 sits out, the line may not swing much, especially against a weaker team.

The rate at which teams shoot the 3-ball has increased from 38.4% to 42.1% in the last five years. GMs, coaches, and analytics agree that 3’s are important, but this trend also creates more betting variance.

A team might hit 42% from beyond the arc one game, only to drop off to 29% the next night. You can’t always predict when this will happen, but you can at least make educated guesses.

For example, a team that shot 7–30 from three the previous game but consistently got quality looks could very well come out hot the following contest. This is where you find value, while the market overreacts and sees the team as slumping.