NFL MVP Futures 2026-27

NFL MVP Odds Movement: What's Changed This Season?

The NFL MVP futures market has shifted considerably since the start of the regular season, with Josh Allen and Brock Purdy making the biggest gains among the leading contenders.

Allen’s odds have shortened from +600 to +140. Purdy’s have shortened from +2200 to +375 behind San Francisco’s 6-1 start and his strong passing efficiency. Joe Burrow’s odds have improved from +925 to +575 following his four-touchdown performance against Baltimore, while Trevor Lawrence’s have moved from +2200 to +1000.

Other early-season contenders have lost ground. Patrick Mahomes has drifted from +1200 to +1600, while Caleb Williams has moved from +1400 to +2500 despite strong performances since returning from injury. Drake Maye remains unchanged at +1100.

Lamar Jackson has suffered the steepest decline in market standing, with his odds lengthening from +750 to +10000 after he missed three games with an ankle injury. Matthew Stafford has also lost considerable ground, moving from +1000 to +8000.

NFL MVP Favorites & Contenders

The leading NFL MVP contenders have taken different paths through the futures market. Allen and Purdy have made substantial gains since the season began, while Burrow and Lawrence have improved their positions. Other quarterbacks have strong statistical cases but remain at longer odds.

Factors Influencing NFL MVP Odds

NFL MVP futures prices can shift considerably throughout the season. Injuries, team success, individual performances, weather conditions and other factors can all affect how sportsbooks price the leading contenders.

Injuries to MVP Contenders

Injuries can significantly affect MVP odds, especially when quarterbacks miss multiple games. Lamar Jackson’s three-game absence has contributed to a steep decline in his MVP odds, while Caleb Williams has yet to recover his preseason price despite his impressive play since returning.

Injuries to key offensive players can also hurt a quarterback’s production. For example, Brock Purdy has maintained impressive efficiency despite San Francisco’s depleted receiving corps.

Team Success and Playoff Positioning

Players on winning teams generally have stronger MVP cases, especially when their performances contribute directly to playoff positioning.

Allen, Purdy and Lawrence have benefited from their teams’ strong starts and divisional leads, while Burrow and Goff face pressure to help their teams gain ground in their respective division races. The division futures market offers another way to track expectations for those races.

Late-season divisional games and matchups between playoff contenders could significantly influence futures prices, particularly if a quarterback delivers a standout performance in a high-profile victory.

How Supporting Casts Influence MVP Odds

An MVP contender’s supporting cast can influence both his production and how MVP voters assess his individual value.

Goff benefits from playmakers like Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, while Burrow has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Lawrence has several talented receiving options, and Williams is surrounded by promising young playmakers in Chicago. Emerging contributors can also feature in the Rookie of the Year race, although that award is limited to first-year players.

Allen, meanwhile, arguably has the least talented supporting cast among these contenders. Although Buffalo has James Cook and added DJ Moore, Allen remains heavily responsible for generating offense through both passing and rushing.

That distinction matters in the MVP market. Players surrounded by elite talent may produce better statistics, but a player who consistently carries a larger share of his team’s offense can make an equally compelling MVP case.

Late-Season Weather

Weather becomes increasingly important during November, December and January, particularly for MVP contenders playing outdoors in colder climates.

Snow, strong winds and heavy precipitation can reduce passing efficiency, limit deep throws and encourage teams to rely more heavily on their running games.

That could affect the statistical production of candidates such as Allen, Burrow and Williams, especially compared with quarterbacks who play indoors or in more favorable conditions, such as Goff and Lawrence. Conversely, strong performances in difficult weather can also strengthen a contender’s MVP case.

AP MVP Voting Window and Criteria

The NFL MVP is selected by 50 Associated Press voters, who rank their top five candidates based on regular-season performance. Voting takes place before the playoffs, so postseason performances do not count toward the regular-season MVP.

This makes the final weeks of the regular season especially important. Strong finishes, division-clinching victories and standout performances in late-season nationally televised games can influence voter perceptions and cause movements in the futures market.

Key Matchups That Could Shape the NFL MVP Race

The remaining NFL schedule features several important games that could influence MVP odds. Divisional rivalries, matchups between playoff contenders and nationally televised games will give MVP candidates opportunities to strengthen their cases.

Buffalo’s Challenging Schedule

Josh Allen and the Bills face a difficult stretch that includes Baltimore (November 1), undefeated Minnesota (November 9) and Kansas City on Thanksgiving. Buffalo also visits New England (December 6) and Green Bay (December 13) before hosting Chicago (December 19). That final matchup could put Allen directly against fellow MVP contender Caleb Williams.

Strong performances against these opponents could reinforce Allen’s position as the betting favorite, while losses or declining production could open the door for his challengers.

San Francisco’s Remaining NFC Tests

Brock Purdy and the 49ers return from their bye week against Las Vegas (November 8), followed by a road game against Dallas (November 15). The bigger challenges come against undefeated Minnesota in Mexico City (November 22), Seattle (November 29) and the Los Angeles Rams (December 13).

These matchups could significantly influence San Francisco’s NFC playoff positioning and expectations in the conference futures market. For Purdy, maintaining his efficiency against tougher competition would strengthen his MVP case and potentially shorten his futures odds.

Cincinnati’s Opportunity to Build Momentum

Joe Burrow and the Bengals have opportunities to improve their position in the AFC, beginning with Tennessee (November 1), Atlanta in Madrid (November 8) and Pittsburgh (November 15). Other key remaining matchups include Kansas City (December 13) and Baltimore (December 31), both of which could have major playoff implications.

Strong performances against these AFC rivals would help Burrow build on his recent momentum and potentially close the gap on Allen and Purdy in the MVP market.

Jared Goff, Caleb Williams and the NFC North Race

The NFC North race could have a significant impact on the MVP futures market, especially for Jared Goff and Caleb Williams. Both quarterbacks have produced impressive numbers, but their odds remain considerably longer than the leading contenders.

Detroit (4-2) faces undefeated Minnesota on November 1, with a rematch scheduled for December 20. The Lions also face Williams and Chicago (5-2) on Thanksgiving and January 3, giving both quarterbacks two important head-to-head opportunities.

Chicago faces Buffalo on December 19, Green Bay on Christmas Day and Minnesota in Week 18. Strong performances in these high-profile matchups, particularly the two Lions-Bears games, could help Goff or Williams close the gap on the MVP favorites.

Previous NFL MVP Winners and Historical Trends

Quarterbacks have dominated NFL MVP voting for more than a decade, with several players winning the award multiple times. Recent results also highlight how individual performance and team success have helped separate MVP winners from the rest of the field.

Recent NFL MVP Winners

Quarterbacks Dominate Recent NFL MVP Wins

Quarterbacks have dominated NFL MVP voting throughout the 21st century, winning the award in 22 of the 25 seasons since 2001. That dominance has become even more pronounced in recent years, with quarterbacks winning 13 consecutive MVP awards since 2013.

Can Non-Quarterbacks Win NFL MVP?

Yes, but history shows how difficult it has become. Since the Associated Press began recognizing the NFL’s top player in 1957, non-quarterbacks have won or shared the honor in just 21 of 69 seasons. That total includes 18 running backs, two defensive players and one kicker.

Only three non-quarterbacks have won since 2001: Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012). Peterson remains the last non-quarterback winner after rushing for 2,097 yards.

With quarterbacks winning every MVP award since 2013, a player at another position would likely need an extraordinary season to overcome their dominance in voting and the futures market.

Does Team Success Matter in NFL MVP Voting?

Team success has played a major role in NFL MVP voting. From 2016 through 2025, nine of the 10 winners played for division champions, seven earned their conference’s No. 1 playoff seed, and all 10 reached the postseason.

That playoff trend extends throughout the 21st century. Every AP NFL MVP winner since 2001 has played for a playoff team. In fact, only two winners in the award’s history have missed the postseason: Johnny Unitas (1967) and O.J. Simpson (1973).

For MVP futures markets, these historical trends highlight the importance of team success. Division standings, playoff positioning and the race for the conference’s top seed are important factors to monitor when evaluating candidates during the final weeks of the season.

Repeat MVP Winners

Repeat winners have been a significant trend throughout the 21st century. Since 2001, five quarterbacks have won multiple MVP awards, combining for 16 awards across 25 seasons.

Peyton Manning leads with five MVPs, followed by Aaron Rodgers with four and Tom Brady with three. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have each won twice.

More recently, Mahomes, Jackson and Rodgers accounted for six consecutive MVP awards from 2018 through 2023. That dominance highlights how established quarterbacks can remain leading MVP contenders across multiple seasons.

Late-Season NFL MVP Favorites Have Won 8 of the Last 10 Awards

From 2016 through 2025, the NFL MVP betting favorite entering the final two weeks of the regular season went on to win the award eight times (80%). The only exceptions came in 2016, when Matt Ryan overtook Ezekiel Elliott, and 2020, when Aaron Rodgers surpassed Patrick Mahomes.

This trend shows that the futures market has correctly identified the eventual NFL MVP winner by the final two weeks in most seasons over the last decade.