2026 Heisman Trophy Odds & Futures

Heisman Trophy Odds Movement: What's Changed This Season?

The Heisman Trophy futures market has changed considerably since the preseason, with Jeremiah Smith, Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney emerging as the leading contenders.

Smith’s odds have shortened from +1600 to +115, while Mensah’s have shortened from +1000 to +325. Toney has made the biggest move, from +3500 to +350. Meanwhile, CJ Carr (+700 to +2000) and Trinidad Chambliss (+1500 to +2800) have lost ground. Oregon State receiver Jesse Legree remains in contention at +2200, a longer price than his opening odds of +1600.

Several prominent preseason favorites have also fallen out of the leading group. Texas quarterback Arch Manning opened at +850 but has drifted to +40000 following inconsistent performances and multiple losses. Injuries have derailed Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Oregon’s Dante Moore, both of whom opened at +1500, with Moore unlikely to return this season. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has also faded, with his odds lengthening from +2800 to +8000.

Heisman Trophy Favorites and Contenders

The leading Heisman contenders have separated themselves through individual production, team success and standout performances. Here’s how their statistics and recent results have influenced the Heisman Trophy futures market.

Factors Influencing Heisman Trophy Odds

Heisman Trophy futures odds can shift considerably during the final weeks of the season as injuries, team success, strength of schedule and individual performances influence the race. With several high-profile matchups ahead, the leading contenders have opportunities to improve their standing, while quarterback changes, competing teammates and late-season results could reshape the market before voting closes.

Key Remaining Games and Matchups

Several key matchups remain on the schedule, giving the leading Heisman contenders opportunities to strengthen their candidacies before voting closes. The college football game odds provide context for the challenges each player faces in those contests.

Injuries and Offensive Changes

Ohio State’s quarterback situation is one of the biggest uncertainties affecting the Heisman futures market. With Julian Sayin sidelined, coach Ryan Day is evaluating Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, and both could see playing time against USC on October 31.

The concern isn’t simply who starts at quarterback, but how Ohio State adjusts its offense. A more conservative passing attack, fewer downfield attempts or increased reliance on the running game could limit Jeremiah Smith’s receiving opportunities and touchdown production.

The USC matchup will provide the first meaningful indication of how Smith performs with a backup quarterback. Maintaining his high level of production against USC, Oregon and Michigan could restore bettors’ confidence in his Heisman candidacy.

Injuries will remain a concern throughout the rest of the season for each of the Heisman contenders.

Team Success and Competition Between Candidates

Miami’s undefeated record has helped elevate both Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney into the Heisman race, but their success presents an interesting challenge for voters and sportsbooks.

Their performances against Pittsburgh illustrate the connection. Mensah threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns, with three scoring passes going to Toney, who finished with 16 receptions for 194 yards. Both strengthened their Heisman cases during the same game.

That shared production doesn’t automatically divide their votes, but it raises an important question: which player will voters consider most responsible for Miami’s success?

The November 7 matchup against Notre Dame could help distinguish the two candidates. Another dominant passing performance could strengthen Mensah’s standing as the leading quarterback contender, while a standout individual showing from Toney could help him gain ground among receivers.

Conference Championship Games

Conference championship weekend (December 4–5) offers Heisman contenders one final opportunity to strengthen their candidacies. With voting closing December 7, a standout performance against a top opponent could prove decisive in a close race.

Ohio State remains firmly in the Big Ten title race at 4-0 in conference play, trailing only UCLA (5-0). Miami leads the ACC at 5-0, putting Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney in a strong position to reach the championship game.

Oregon State is also well positioned, sharing the Pac-12 lead with Boise State at 3-0. That gives Jesse Legree a realistic opportunity for another high-profile performance.

Ole Miss remains in SEC contention at 3-2, although the Rebels trail Kentucky (5-1), Georgia (4-1) and several other challengers. Trinidad Chambliss faces a more difficult route to championship weekend.

Notre Dame is an independent program and does not compete in a conference championship game. That puts added importance on the Fighting Irish’s November 7 matchup against Miami, giving CJ Carr a major opportunity to strengthen his Heisman candidacy against fellow contenders Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney.

Carr would also benefit from No. 19 SMU continuing its climb in the rankings and potentially reaching the Top 10 before visiting Notre Dame on November 21. That would give him another marquee matchup to strengthen his Heisman candidacy before voting begins.

Heisman Voting Window and Deadline

Heisman ballots are distributed December 3, with online voting opening December 5 at 5 p.m. ET and closing December 7 at 5 p.m. ET.

The voting window overlaps with conference championship weekend, allowing voters to consider those performances before submitting their ballots. College Football Playoff games begin after voting closes and cannot influence the award’s outcome.

Previous Heisman Trophy Winners and Historical Trends

Recent Heisman Trophy winners reflect a strong preference for quarterbacks, although exceptional performances at other positions have occasionally broken that trend. With three wide receivers among the leading contenders in 2026, this year’s race could challenge that trend once again.

Recent Heisman Trophy Winners

Quarterbacks Dominate Heisman Voting

Quarterbacks have won 20 of the past 25 Heisman Trophies (80%), including eight of the last 10. The only non-quarterback winners since 2001 were running backs Reggie Bush (2005), Mark Ingram (2009) and Derrick Henry (2015), wide receiver DeVonta Smith (2020), and two-way receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter (2024).

That historical advantage favors quarterbacks such as Darian Mensah, although the presence of three wide receivers among the 2026 favorites could challenge the trend.

Wide Receivers’ Chances of Winning the Heisman

Wide receivers have rarely finished among the top three in Heisman voting over the past decade. Aside from DeVonta Smith’s victory in 2020 and two-way star Travis Hunter’s win in 2024, the highest finishes came from Oklahoma’s Dede Westbrook in 2016 and Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2023, both placing fourth.

Alabama’s Amari Cooper was the last receiver to finish in the top three without winning, placing third in 2014.

Does Team Success Matter in Heisman Voting?

Team success can strengthen a Heisman candidacy, but an undefeated record is far from necessary. Three winners over the past decade captured the award despite their teams finishing the regular season with three losses.

Lamar Jackson won in 2016 with Louisville at 9-3, Jayden Daniels claimed the 2023 award after LSU finished 9-3, and Travis Hunter won in 2024 despite Colorado’s 9-3 record.

Those results demonstrate that exceptional individual production can outweigh team losses, although a strong record and conference championship appearance can provide additional opportunities to impress voters.

Can Teammates Compete for the Heisman Trophy?

Multiple players from the same team can attract significant Heisman support, making Miami’s Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney an interesting combination in 2026.

As recently as 2025, Ohio State placed three players in the Top 10: quarterback Julian Sayin (fourth), receiver Jeremiah Smith (sixth) and safety Caleb Downs (ninth).

The clearest recent example of teammates finishing near the top came in 2020, when Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith won the Heisman, while quarterback Mac Jones finished third. Running back Najee Harris also placed fifth.

Power Four Conferences Dominate Heisman Winners

All 25 Heisman winners from 2001 through 2025 attended schools that now compete in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC. The trend is equally strong over the last decade, with all 10 winners from 2016 through 2025 coming from current Power Four programs.

These figures reflect current conference affiliations. For example, Oregon’s Marcus Mariota (2014) and USC’s Caleb Williams (2022) won the Heisman while playing in the Pac-12, then one of the Power Five conferences, before their schools joined the Big Ten.

Players outside the Power Four have come close. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty finished second to Travis Hunter in 2024, demonstrating that non-Power Four candidates can attract substantial Heisman support even if recent winners have come exclusively from the major conferences.