College Football Picks Week 10: 4 Best Bets, Odds & Predictions

The first College Football Playoff rankings are out, and while they may leave everyone outside the selection committee scratching their heads, there’s still a month of football left to sort everything out.

From a betting perspective, disagreements over the rankings can create valuable opportunities. Rather than joining the mainstream media in questioning the committee’s decisions, bettors should focus on identifying potential edges and capitalizing on differences between public perception and the betting markets.

With several high-profile matchups on the schedule, this week’s slate offers intriguing opportunities across point spreads, totals, and player props. Bettors can also monitor the latest college football odds to compare lines as the markets move.

Here are four of my favorite college football bets for the week.

No. 7 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 18 Missouri Tigers: Odds & Prediction

Saturday, November 7 – 12:00 p.m. ET

  • Moneyline: Texas -142; Missouri +122
  • Point Spread: Texas -2.5
  • Over/Under: 43
  • Odds Source: Bovada

No. 7 Texas (6-2) hits the road for the first time in a month to face a dangerous Missouri team.

The Tigers have been dominant at home, posting a 4-0 straight-up record with an average scoring differential of +24.75 points. They’ve also held every home opponent to 17 points or fewer this season.

Those numbers make it difficult to find a clear edge on either the spread or the game total. Instead, I believe the best betting value lies in the player prop market, specifically with Texas quarterback Arch Manning.

Manning has faced immense pressure this season and shouldered much of the blame for both Texas losses. However, this matchup presents an excellent opportunity for him to produce through the air.

Missouri boasts one of the nation’s strongest rushing defenses, ranking 16th nationally while allowing just 99.6 rushing yards per game. Its pass defense, however, has been considerably more vulnerable, ranking 99th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (243.7).

That disparity should force Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian to lean heavily on Manning’s passing ability to move the chains.

Whether the Longhorns establish an early lead or find themselves throwing late in a close contest, Manning should see plenty of passing opportunities.

With his passing yards prop sitting at just 207.5, I believe the line is too low.

Best Bet: Arch Manning Over 207.5 Passing Yards (Bovada)

Although Manning has finished below his passing yards prop in each of his last three games, he threw for more than 260 yards in his previous road game against Oklahoma.

His passing yards line for that matchup was 210.5, making this week’s number even more attractive. In fact, the current line is reportedly his lowest of the season by approximately 20 yards.

Against Missouri’s elite rushing defense, Texas will likely need to attack through the air.

I expect Manning to receive enough passing opportunities to clear 207.5 yards.

With Manning continuing to attract national attention, bettors can also follow the latest Heisman Trophy odds to see how his performances influence the award market.

No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 14 LSU Tigers: Odds & Prediction

Saturday, November 7 – 3:30 p.m. ET

  • Moneyline: Alabama +195; LSU -230
  • Point Spread: LSU -5
  • Over/Under:5
  • Odds Source: BetUS

Alabama entering the first College Football Playoff rankings at No. 5 despite already having two losses was arguably the committee’s biggest surprise.

The Crimson Tide’s most concerning defeat came in a 26-10 loss at Tennessee, a team ranked 13th with an identical 6-2 record.

After a bye week, Alabama now has an opportunity to either validate the committee’s confidence or reinforce the argument that the Crimson Tide are significantly overrated.

Alabama enters this matchup as a five-point road underdog against rival LSU, which also holds a 6-2 record.

However, the Tigers have been particularly impressive at home, where they remain undefeated at 5-0.

LSU has accumulated a remarkable +181 scoring differential in those five home games, an average winning margin of 36.2 points.

That stretch includes convincing victories over Clemson (+41), Texas A&M (+29), and Mississippi State (+31).

The Mississippi State result is particularly interesting. Alabama received considerable credit for defeating the Bulldogs earlier this season, yet LSU delivered an even more emphatic performance, shutting them out 31-0.

Offensively, LSU is every bit as capable as Alabama.

Although this matchup won’t take place under the lights in Death Valley, LSU’s status as nearly a touchdown favorite tells a much different story than the College Football Playoff rankings.

Best Bet: LSU -5

I expect Lane Kiffin and LSU to make a strong statement against an Alabama team that appears overrated relative to its actual performance.

The Tigers have been exceptional at home, and their offensive firepower should create significant problems for the Crimson Tide.

I’m backing LSU to continue its home dominance and win by multiple scores.

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels: Odds & Prediction

Saturday, November 7 – 7:30 p.m. ET

  • Moneyline: Georgia -180; Ole Miss +155
  • Point Spread: Georgia -3.5
  • Over/Under:5
  • Odds Source: LuckyRebel

Two of college football’s most explosive offenses meet in this highly anticipated SEC showdown.

Georgia ranks second nationally in points per play (0.600), while Ole Miss sits 11th (0.511).

Both teams also rank among the nation’s top 10 in yards per point and points per game. Regardless of the opponent, each offense has consistently found ways to move the football and put points on the scoreboard.

I don’t expect that to change this week.

Ole Miss averages 37.1 points per game, while Georgia is slightly higher at 37.9.

Given that level of offensive production, a game total of 56.5 appears surprisingly low.

Both defenses delivered strong performances last week, with Georgia allowing just eight points and Ole Miss surrendering 15. However, neither defense faced an offense comparable to the one it will encounter in this matchup.

Recent history also supports the possibility of another high-scoring contest.

The teams met twice last season, combining for 78 and 73 points, respectively. Both offenses scored at least 34 points in each meeting.

Georgia won the regular-season matchup, while Ole Miss took the playoff encounter. Even in defeat, the losing team generated at least 343 yards of total offense in both games.

If these offenses can produce similar yardage totals again, I believe they’ll have an excellent chance of pushing the combined score beyond 56.5.

Best Bet: Over 56.5 Points

I’m not overcomplicating this selection.

Both teams have consistently demonstrated the ability to score against quality competition, and their recent head-to-head meetings have produced plenty of offense.

I expect both coaching staffs to approach this game knowing that scoring 30 points or more may be necessary to win.

With Georgia and Ole Miss capable of reaching that mark, I’m backing the over.

For bettors evaluating other SEC matchups or comparing available markets, our college football betting guide provides additional resources and sportsbook information.

No. 1 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Odds & Prediction

Saturday, November 7 – 7:30 p.m. ET

  • Moneyline: Miami +185; Notre Dame -225
  • Point Spread: Notre Dame -5.5
  • Over/Under:5
  • Odds Source: Bovada

Miami and Notre Dame have been looking forward to this matchup all season, knowing it could have major College Football Playoff implications.

For Notre Dame, the stakes are particularly high.

Miami enters the game undefeated and ranked No. 1, giving the Hurricanes considerably more room for error in the playoff race.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, faces a much less forgiving situation. Another loss could effectively eliminate the Fighting Irish from playoff contention, even if they win their remaining games.

That should create a playoff-like atmosphere, with both teams understanding the importance of every possession.

While these programs boast two of the nation’s most productive offenses, I believe their defenses will ultimately determine the outcome.

Miami leads the country in scoring at 43.4 points per game, while Notre Dame ranks third at 40.4.

Those impressive offensive numbers naturally attract attention to the over, but the defensive statistics suggest a different approach.

Neither team allows more than 19.3 points per game.

Although Miami’s numbers have benefited somewhat from a relatively manageable ACC schedule, the Hurricanes still rank second nationally in opponent yards per rush (2.4) and first in rushing yards allowed per game (64.1).

Notre Dame’s defense has been equally impressive, leading the country in total yards allowed per game (236.3).

Both offenses will face some of the toughest defensive resistance they’ve encountered all season.

With so much attention focused on their scoring averages, I believe the market may be overvaluing offensive production and underestimating the defensive matchup.

Best Bet: Under 57.5 Points

Despite the impressive offensive statistics, this matchup has the potential to become a physical, defensive battle.

The playoff implications should encourage both teams to prioritize ball security, field position, and limiting costly mistakes.

With two elite defenses capable of disrupting even the most productive offenses, I believe 57.5 points is too high.

I’m taking the under.

Bettors considering this wager can review the markets at Bovada Sportsbook and compare the available totals before placing a bet.

College Football Best Bets Recap

Matchup Best Bet
Texas vs. Missouri Arch Manning Over 207.5 Passing Yards
Alabama vs. LSU LSU -5
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Over 56.5 Points
Miami vs. Notre Dame Under 57.5 Points

The first College Football Playoff rankings have created plenty of debate, but for bettors, the most important question isn’t whether the committee got the rankings right. It’s whether the betting markets have accurately priced each matchup.

This week’s selections focus on exploiting potential mismatches, identifying value in player props, and recognizing situations where public perception may not align with the underlying statistics.

As always, compare the latest odds before placing your wagers, since lines can change significantly leading up to kickoff.

James Murphy
James Murphy

Years of Experience: 24+
Specialties & Areas of Focus: NFL, Betting

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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