NFL Defensive Player of the Year Futures 2026-27

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds Movement

Will Anderson Jr.’s DPOY odds have shortened from +525 in the preseason to +230, driven by his league-leading sack total. Myles Garrett opened as the favorite at +400, but a knee injury requiring surgery has significantly diminished his chances of repeating as Defensive Player of the Year.

T.J. Watt’s DPOY odds have shortened from +2000 to +1100, although his sack production has slowed following a strong start to the season. Aidan Hutchinson’s odds have slipped slightly from +700 to +750 despite recording five sacks through six games.

Maxx Crosby’s odds have lengthened from +1600 to +2500, while Nik Bonitto’s have drifted from +1800 to +2700. Neither has matched the sack production of the leading contenders.

Fred Warner’s DPOY odds have shortened from +4500 in the preseason to +650, driven by his tackling and turnover production. Dallas Turner has also emerged from a preseason long shot at +12000 to a leading contender at +750 after a strong start to the season. When comparing those prices across sportsbooks, readers can use our BetUS review to assess that operator alongside the quoted market.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Favorites and Contenders

The leading DPOY contenders have made their mark in different ways. Anderson and Turner have generated sacks and quarterback pressure, while Warner has stood out for his tackling and ability to force turnovers.

Factors Influencing NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds reflect more than sacks and tackles. A defender’s overall impact, consistency, playing time and ability to create turnovers can all influence the futures market.

Sacks, Pressures and Defensive Production

Sacks are among the most important statistics for DPOY contenders, particularly edge rushers and defensive linemen. However, quarterback pressures, hits and tackles for loss provide a more complete picture of their impact.

Anderson leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks, but Turner has recorded more quarterback hits despite playing one fewer game. Hutchinson has also generated consistent pressure without matching Anderson’s sack total.

Pass-Rush Efficiency and Double-Team Attention

Pass-rush win rate and pressure rate help measure how consistently defenders disrupt quarterbacks relative to their opportunities. These statistics can reveal strong performances that aren’t reflected in sack totals.

Anderson, Turner and Hutchinson also face blocking schemes designed to limit their effectiveness. Drawing double teams or additional blockers can create opportunities for teammates, making a defender’s impact greater than his individual statistics suggest.

Defensive Snap Counts and Playing Time

Defensive snap counts affect how many opportunities players have to accumulate sacks, tackles and turnovers. Every-down starters generally have more opportunities than situational pass rushers, while injuries and defensive rotations can limit production. A defender producing consistent pressure on fewer snaps may be performing more effectively than one accumulating similar numbers through greater playing time.

Tackles and Turnovers

Defensive responsibilities vary by position, making direct statistical comparisons difficult. Edge rushers are primarily judged by their disruption of opposing passing games, while linebackers and defensive backs contribute through tackling, coverage and turnovers. The same principle applies to the Offensive Player of the Year race: candidates at different positions build their cases through different measures of production.

Warner’s 71 tackles and four forced fumbles demonstrate how an off-ball linebacker can build a DPOY case without producing significant sack totals.

Defensive Scheme and Supporting Cast

A team’s defensive scheme and surrounding talent can significantly influence a DPOY contender’s production. Strong coverage can give pass rushers more time to pressure quarterbacks, while effective defensive fronts create opportunities for linebackers to make tackles and force turnovers.

Injuries to DPOY Contenders

Injuries can quickly change DPOY odds, especially when leading candidates miss multiple games and fall behind in season-long production. Garrett’s knee injury has already reshaped the 2026 race, taking the reigning winner out of the leading group. Additional injuries could create opportunities for other players to move up the betting board.

DPOY Voting Deadline and Late-Season Performances

The 2026 NFL regular season ends January 10, 2027, marking the cutoff for performances considered in AP Defensive Player of the Year voting. Ballots are submitted before the playoffs, so postseason performances don’t count.

Strong performances in the final weeks can carry additional weight in a close race. Multi-sack games, forced turnovers and standout showings in high-profile matchups could help contenders strengthen their cases before voters submit their ballots.

Key Matchups That Could Shape the NFL DPOY Race

Several remaining NFL games could influence the DPOY market, particularly matchups involving leading contenders and offenses with established playmakers.

Minnesota and Detroit’s NFC North Matchups

Dallas Turner and Aidan Hutchinson have two important opportunities to strengthen their award cases when Minnesota visits Detroit on November 1 and hosts the rematch on December 20.

Turner faces a Detroit offensive line anchored by Penei Sewell, while Hutchinson will attempt to pressure Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray. Minnesota has allowed 18 sacks through six games, creating opportunities for Detroit’s defensive front.

Strong performances in either divisional matchup could help Turner or Hutchinson close the gap on Anderson. With both teams competing in the NFC North, the results could also affect expectations in the NFC championship futures market.

San Francisco’s Remaining NFC Tests

Fred Warner and the 49ers face a challenging stretch that includes undefeated Minnesota on November 22 in Mexico City, Seattle on November 29 and Dallas later in the season.

The Minnesota matchup will be particularly interesting because the Vikings feature fellow DPOY contender Dallas Turner on defense. Warner will have opportunities to demonstrate his tackling, coverage and run-defense contributions against one of the NFC’s best teams.

Houston and Pittsburgh’s December Matchup

Will Anderson Jr. and T.J. Watt will both have an opportunity to strengthen their DPOY candidacies when Houston visits Pittsburgh on December 6.

The Steelers have allowed 22 sacks through seven games, compared with 15 allowed by Houston. That difference could provide Anderson with additional opportunities to pressure Pittsburgh’s passing attack, although Watt remains capable of producing game-changing plays against the Texans.

A standout performance by either defender could influence the futures market, particularly if their sack totals remain close entering December.

Greg Rousseau and Buffalo’s High-Profile Matchups

Greg Rousseau has several opportunities to strengthen his DPOY candidacy, beginning with Buffalo’s November 1 matchup against Baltimore and a Monday Night Football showdown with undefeated Minnesota on November 9.

The Bills also host Kansas City on Thanksgiving before facing Green Bay on December 13, Chicago on December 19 and Denver on Christmas Day. These nationally televised games give Rousseau opportunities to showcase his pass-rushing ability against several playoff contenders.

NFL DPOY Winners and Historical Trends

Defensive linemen and edge rushers have dominated recent DPOY voting, although occasional winners from the secondary demonstrate that the award isn’t exclusively determined by sacks and pass rushing.

Recent NFL Defensive Player of the Year Winners

Pass Rushers Dominate Recent DPOY Awards

Defensive linemen and edge rushers have won 15 of the 25 AP Defensive Player of the Year awards since 2001, including eight of the last 10. The only exceptions over the past decade were cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore in 2019 and Patrick Surtain II in 2024.

Leading the NFL in Sacks Does Not Guarantee DPOY

From 2013 through 2025, the NFL sack leader won AP Defensive Player of the Year in only five of 13 seasons. Those winners were J.J. Watt (2015), Aaron Donald (2018), T.J. Watt (2021), Nick Bosa (2022) and Myles Garrett (2025).

There were also notable exceptions. T.J. Watt led the NFL with 19 sacks in 2023, but Garrett received the award. Trey Hendrickson led with 17.5 sacks in 2024, while cornerback Patrick Surtain II won DPOY.

Linebackers and Defensive Backs Have Fewer Wins

Off-ball linebackers have won just four DPOY awards since 2001 (16%), with three of those winners recording at least four interceptions. None has won since Luke Kuechly in 2013.

Defensive backs have claimed six awards (24%) over that span, split evenly between cornerbacks and safeties. Those six winners combined for 37 interceptions, averaging 6.2 per season. No safety has won since 2010, while cornerbacks have captured two of the last seven awards, emphasizing the importance of elite coverage and turnover production.

Repeat DPOY Winners

Since the AP Defensive Player of the Year award began in 1971, only three players have won in consecutive seasons, representing a repeat rate of just 5.6%: Lawrence Taylor (1981-1982), J.J. Watt (2014-2015) and Aaron Donald (2017-2018). No player has repeated since Donald.

From Finalist to DPOY

Over the last 10 seasons, 70% of DPOY winners did not finish among the top three in voting the previous year. Only Aaron Donald (2018), T.J. Watt (2021) and Myles Garrett (2025) moved from a top-three finish to winning the award the following season.

However, 70% of those seasons featured at least one returning top-three finalist. The trend suggests that previous finalists frequently remain competitive, but most DPOY winners emerge from outside the previous year’s top three.

Avoid Rookie Defenders

Only one rookie has won AP Defensive Player of the Year since the award began in 1971. Lawrence Taylor accomplished the feat with the New York Giants in 1981, winning both DPOY and Defensive Rookie of the Year. No rookie has won DPOY in the 44 seasons since, including the last 25 years.

Team Success and Playoff Contention

Nine of the last 10 DPOY winners (90%) played on teams with winning records that reached the playoffs. Myles Garrett was the lone exception, winning in 2025 despite Cleveland finishing 5-12. Team results can provide context when comparing the DPOY market with Super Bowl odds, although the award recognizes an individual defender’s regular-season performance.