NFL Comeback Player of the Year Futures 2026-27

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds Movement

Patrick Mahomes’ odds opened at +185, shortened to -250, then drifted to -170 as the calendar turned toward November. Malik Nabers’ odds shortened from +1400 to +550, George Kittle’s from +2500 to +1100, and Travis Hunter’s from +2500 to +1900.

Fred Warner also gained ground, with his odds shortening from +2500 to +1000, while Michael Penix Jr.’s improved from +5000 to +1900 and Deshaun Watson’s from +4000 to +2700. J.J. McCarthy’s odds opened at +5000 and shortened to +2200.

Kyler Murray (+600 to +3000) and Jayden Daniels (+450 to +4000) have moved in the opposite direction.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Favorites and Contenders

The leading CPOY contenders have overcome significant injuries, but their award cases depend on how closely they’ve returned to their previous form and whether they can sustain their production throughout the season. Unlike the MVP race, the comeback award also asks voters to consider the setback a player has overcome.

Key Factors Influencing the 2026 NFL CPOY Market

Several factors could shift the 2026 CPOY futures market, from the severity of each player’s injury and return to form to continued availability, team success and the AP’s voting criteria.

Updated AP Comeback Player of the Year Criteria

Since June 2024, the AP has emphasized players returning from injuries, illnesses or other circumstances that caused missed playing time the previous season. This favors candidates such as Mahomes, Nabers and Warner over players simply rebounding from disappointing performances. There is no specified minimum number of games a player must have missed.

The Significance of the Previous Setback

The severity of a player’s injury and the challenges of returning can carry as much weight in CPOY voting as statistical production, as Alex Smith’s remarkable 2020 comeback demonstrated.

After suffering a compound leg fracture and life-threatening infection that required 17 surgeries, Smith returned following nearly two years away from football. Although he threw just six touchdowns and eight interceptions, he went 5-1 as Washington’s starter and earned 49 of 50 AP votes.

Returning to Pre-Injury Performance Levels

Both the severity of an injury and the player’s return to form carry weight in the CPOY market. Nabers and Warner have surpassed their pre-injury production averages, while Kittle, Mahomes and Watson remain below theirs. Penix has shown considerable improvement, although his limited NFL experience makes comparisons less reliable.

Playing Time and Availability

Staying healthy throughout the season provides stronger evidence of a sustained comeback. Nabers, Warner and Kittle have returned to regular roles, while additional missed games have weakened the cases of Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray.

Late-Season Performance and CPOY Futures Odds

With AP voting taking place before the playoffs, the remaining regular-season games are each contender’s final opportunities to strengthen his award case. Strong finishes from Nabers, Warner, McCarthy, Penix or Kittle could shorten their odds, while a slump or injury to Mahomes could cause his price to lengthen.

Patrick Mahomes and Michael Penix Jr. Meet in Atlanta

Kansas City visits Atlanta on November 15 in a matchup between two quarterbacks recovering from ACL injuries. A strong performance from Penix against Mahomes could help narrow the gap in the CPOY futures market.

Kyler Murray Faces Fred Warner and George Kittle in Mexico City

Minnesota faces San Francisco on November 22, with Murray looking to improve his CPOY standing against a 49ers team featuring Warner and Kittle. The matchup also gives San Francisco’s contenders a chance to impress against one of the NFC’s top teams.

Four CPOY Contenders Meet in Giants vs. 49ers

The December 6 matchup between the 49ers and Giants features McCarthy and Nabers against Warner and Kittle. A victory over San Francisco could strengthen McCarthy’s comeback narrative while helping the Giants maintain their NFC East lead.

J.J. McCarthy and the Giants’ NFC East Title Push

New York closes the regular season at Dallas on January 3 and at home against Philadelphia in Week 18. With the NFC East futures market tracking expectations for that title race, leading the Giants to their first division crown since 2011 would give McCarthy a compelling late-season CPOY argument, especially after his injury setbacks and September trade.

Deshaun Watson and Cleveland’s AFC North Title Chase

The Browns enter Week 9 leading the AFC North at 5-2, with crucial divisional games against Cincinnati on December 6, Baltimore on December 27 and Cincinnati again in Week 18. Cleveland also visits McCarthy’s Giants on December 20. Guiding the Browns to a division title after missing all of 2025 could significantly improve Watson’s CPOY standing.

Mahomes, Warner and Kittle Meet in Late December

Kansas City hosts San Francisco on December 27, giving Mahomes, Warner and Kittle a high-profile opportunity to strengthen their CPOY cases before the regular season concludes.

NFL CPOY Winners and Historical Trends

The historical CPOY data below covers past winners, positional trends and recent voting results, showing how the award has been decided and what those patterns could mean for the 2026 futures market.

Recent NFL Comeback Player of the Year Winners

Quarterbacks Have Won Seven of the Last 10 Awards

Quarterbacks have won the AP Comeback Player of the Year award in 17 of 25 seasons (68%) since 2001, including seven of the past 10 awards and seven consecutive victories from 2018 through 2024.

However, that dominance does not guarantee an advantage in the 2026 futures market. Previous winners such as Geno Smith (2022) and Joe Flacco (2023) benefited from career revivals, while the AP’s revised 2024 criteria place greater emphasis on overcoming injuries or other circumstances that caused missed playing time.

Defensive Players Have Rarely Won the Award

Only five defensive players have won AP Comeback Player of the Year across 32 award seasons (15.6%) since 1963. Bryant Young (1999), Joe Johnson (2000), Tedy Bruschi (2005), Greg Ellis (2007) and Eric Berry (2015) account for those victories. Defenders have won just three of the 25 awards this century (12%), with none since Berry.

Multiple NFL Comeback Player of the Year Winners

Only two players have won the AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award multiple times across 32 award seasons since 1963. Chad Pennington won in 2006 (Jets) and 2008 (Dolphins), while Joe Burrow earned the honor in 2021 and 2024 (Bengals).

Repeat victories account for just 2 of 32 award seasons (6.3%) all-time, including 2 of 25 (8%) this century and 1 of the past 10 (10%). Neither player won in consecutive seasons, highlighting how uncommon repeat CPOY winners have been.

Playoff Success and CPOY Voting Trends

Playoff teams have produced 22 of the last 25 AP Comeback Player of the Year winners (88%), including eight of the past 10 (80%). Only 12 winners played for division champions during that 25-year span, including three in the last decade. Although Super Bowl futures reflect expectations for postseason success, the comeback award is decided on regular-season performances.

Jon Kitna (2003), Keenan Allen (2017) and Joe Burrow (2024) are the only winners since 2001 whose teams missed the postseason.

Late-Season CPOY Futures Trends

Four of the last six CPOY races (66.7%) were wide open entering the final regular-season week: 2021 (Joe Burrow vs. Dak Prescott), 2022 (Geno Smith vs. Christian McCaffrey), 2023 (Joe Flacco vs. Damar Hamlin) and 2024 (Joe Burrow vs. Sam Darnold). Only 2020 (Alex Smith) and 2025 (Christian McCaffrey) featured overwhelming favorites.

This trend suggests that late-season performances can still influence CPOY odds, giving challengers opportunities to close the gap on established favorites before the regular season and AP voting end.

Injury Absences Among CPOY Winners

Eight of the past 10 AP Comeback Player of the Year winners (80%) missed at least five games due to injury the previous season. Geno Smith (2022) and Joe Flacco (2023) were the exceptions, winning primarily for career revivals.

Preseason CPOY Favorites Have Struggled

None of the past three preseason CPOY favorites won the award. Damar Hamlin (2023), Aaron Rodgers (2024) and Aidan Hutchinson (2025) all entered their respective seasons atop opening futures markets but lost.

Most CPOY Winners Started at Least 10 Games

Eight of the past 10 AP Comeback Player of the Year winners (80%) started at least 10 regular-season games during their award-winning seasons. This trend emphasizes the importance of sustained playing time and production.