NBA Rookie of the Year Odds Movement: What's Changed This Season?
Boozer remains the favorite, with his odds shortening slightly to +200 following a strong start with Memphis. His rebounding, playmaking and contributions to the Grizzlies’ early success have helped him maintain that position.
Lendeborg has experienced the most dramatic shift among the leading contenders. The Golden State forward opened at +2000, drifted to +2500 in the summer, and has since shortened to +275. His rise follows several impressive performances early in the season.
Wilson has also gained considerable ground, shortening from +950 to +380. The Chicago forward now ranks third in the market after averaging more than 21 points per game while making significant defensive contributions.
Acuff’s odds have followed a less straightforward path. He opened at +450, lengthened to +900 in the summer, and currently sits at +500. Despite leading all rookies in scoring, the Sacramento guard remains fourth in the betting market.
Dybantsa and Peterson have moved in the opposite direction. Dybantsa’s odds have lengthened from +400 to +1100 after an ankle injury delayed his NBA debut. Peterson has drifted from +400 to +2500 following a slower statistical start. Keaton Wagler has also seen his price lengthen from +3500 to +5000.
NBA Rookie of the Year Favorites and Leading Contenders
The leading Rookie of the Year contenders are building their cases through different strengths, from Boozer’s all-around production and Lendeborg’s scoring to Wilson’s two-way impact and Acuff’s offensive output. Here’s how the top candidates compare through the first part of the season.
Cameron Boozer — Memphis Grizzlies
Cameron Boozer (+200) is averaging 17.4 points, 10.3 rebounds and 5.6 assists through seven games. His all-around production has helped Memphis get off to a fast start and maintain one of the NBA’s best early records. Boozer leads all rookies in rebounding, although his 37.5% field-goal shooting leaves room for improvement.
Yaxel Lendeborg — Golden State Warriors
Yaxel Lendeborg (+275) has emerged as one of the NBA’s most productive rookies, averaging 21.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists through eight games.
The 11th overall pick has delivered multiple 30-point performances, including a career-high 37 points. Lendeborg’s scoring versatility, rebounding and playmaking have established him as one of the leading Rookie of the Year contenders.
Caleb Wilson — Chicago Bulls
Caleb Wilson (+380) has established himself as a strong two-way Rookie of the Year contender, averaging 21.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists through seven games. He’s also contributing approximately two steals and more than one block per contest.
Darius Acuff Jr. — Sacramento Kings
Darius Acuff Jr. (+500) leads all NBA rookies in scoring, averaging 26.1 points, 6.3 assists and 3.9 rebounds through seven games. Acuff has emerged as Sacramento’s primary offensive contributor, averaging more than 23 field-goal attempts per game. However, his 40.6% field-goal shooting and 31.3% three-point shooting highlight areas for improvement. Greater efficiency would strengthen his case against the other leading contenders. His production is being judged against first-year peers rather than the established stars in the NBA MVP race.
AJ Dybantsa — Washington Wizards
AJ Dybantsa (+1100) is averaging 19.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists through his first NBA games after an ankle injury delayed his regular-season debut.
The No. 1 overall draft pick has shown promising scoring ability despite missing time early in the season. His offensive potential keeps him in the Rookie of the Year conversation, although he’ll need consistent production to close the gap on the leading contenders.
Darryn Peterson — Utah Jazz
Darryn Peterson (+2500) is averaging 13.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game with Utah. The second overall draft pick has shown flashes of his offensive potential, including encouraging perimeter shooting.
Factors Influencing NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
The 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year race will be shaped by individual production, playing time, and injuries. Consistency and strong late-season performances can also influence both voting and futures odds.
Playing Time and Starting Opportunities
Consistent playing time gives rookies more opportunities to build their statistical resumes. Darius Acuff Jr. has benefited from a prominent offensive role in Sacramento, while Cameron Boozer and Yaxel Lendeborg have established themselves as important contributors.
Rookie Statistics and Offensive Efficiency
Scoring, rebounding, assists and defensive contributions all influence Rookie of the Year voting. Acuff leads rookies in scoring, while Boozer’s rebounding and playmaking strengthen his case. Shooting efficiency also matters, particularly when comparing high-volume scorers with more versatile players.
Consistency and the Rookie Wall
Rookies can struggle with fatigue and defensive adjustments as the 82-game season progresses. Maintaining strong production throughout the season, rather than relying on an impressive start, can strengthen a player’s Rookie of the Year candidacy.
Defensive Impact
Steals, blocks and defensive versatility can separate rookies with similar offensive production. Caleb Wilson’s ability to contribute on both ends of the floor strengthens his case, especially against contenders who rely more heavily on scoring. The Defensive Player of the Year market, by comparison, evaluates defensive impact across the entire league.
Injuries and Missed Games
Injuries can affect a rookie’s market by limiting playing time and statistical production. AJ Dybantsa’s delayed debut illustrates this challenge. Although Rookie of the Year has no 65-game eligibility requirement, extended absences can make it harder to compete against healthy contenders.
Key Matchups That Could Shape the NBA ROTY Race
The Rookie of the Year race should intensify during the second half of the season as leading candidates strengthen their award cases. Key head-to-head matchups could help separate contenders and influence the futures market.
| Date |
Matchup |
Why It Matters |
| Jan. 12 |
Kings at Warriors |
Acuff and Lendeborg meet in a nationally televised game |
| Jan. 30 |
Grizzlies at Jazz |
Boozer faces Peterson, one of the preseason favorites |
| Feb. 27 |
Kings at Grizzlies |
Acuff challenges Boozer in a late-season scoring and all-around production comparison |
| March 13 |
Grizzlies at Bulls |
Boozer and Wilson showcase their different strengths |
| March 17 |
Grizzlies at Warriors |
Boozer and Lendeborg meet in a potential showdown between leading ROY contenders |
| March 22 |
Kings at Bulls |
Acuff’s scoring faces Wilson’s two-way production |
| March 27 |
Warriors at Wizards |
Lendeborg and Dybantsa look to build late-season momentum |
| March 31 |
Bulls at Wizards |
Wilson and Dybantsa meet during the final weeks of the regular season |
March 17: Cameron Boozer vs. Yaxel Lendeborg
Boozer and Lendeborg meet in Golden State with less than a month remaining in the regular season. Their contrasting strengths in rebounding, playmaking and scoring could make this one of the more important head-to-head comparisons in the Rookie of the Year race. While conference futures focus on each team’s playoff prospects, this award matchup puts the two rookies’ individual contributions in the spotlight.
March 22: Darius Acuff Jr. vs. Caleb Wilson
Acuff and the Kings visit Wilson and the Bulls in a matchup featuring two of the NBA’s leading rookie scorers. Acuff’s offensive production and Wilson’s two-way contributions could make this an important late-season opportunity for either player to strengthen his award candidacy.
March 27: Yaxel Lendeborg vs. AJ Dybantsa
Lendeborg and the Warriors visit Dybantsa and the Wizards as the regular season approaches its final weeks. Both rookies could use a standout performance to strengthen their Rookie of the Year cases and build momentum heading into April.
Previous NBA Rookie of the Year Winners and Historical Trends
Previous NBA Rookie of the Year winners provide valuable historical context through draft positions, individual performances, preseason expectations and voting trends.
Recent NBA Rookie of the Year Winners
| Season |
Winner |
Team |
Draft Position |
| 2025-26 |
Cooper Flagg |
Dallas Mavericks |
No. 1 |
| 2024-25 |
Stephon Castle |
San Antonio Spurs |
No. 4 |
| 2023-24 |
Victor Wembanyama |
San Antonio Spurs |
No. 1 |
| 2022-23 |
Paolo Banchero |
Orlando Magic |
No. 1 |
| 2021-22 |
Scottie Barnes |
Toronto Raptors |
No. 4 |
| 2020-21 |
LaMelo Ball |
Charlotte Hornets |
No. 3 |
| 2019-20 |
Ja Morant |
Memphis Grizzlies |
No. 2 |
| 2018-19 |
Luka Doncic |
Dallas Mavericks |
No. 3 |
| 2017-18 |
Ben Simmons |
Philadelphia 76ers |
No. 1 |
| 2016-17 |
Malcolm Brogdon |
Milwaukee Bucks |
No. 36 |
Top-Five Draft Picks Dominate the ROTY Award
Top-five draft picks have dominated NBA Rookie of the Year voting, winning nine of the last 10 awards (90%) and 20 of the last 25 (80%). Top-three selections accounted for 70% and 64% of winners during those periods, respectively, while No. 1 overall picks won 40% of the awards in both samples.
Second-Round Draft Picks Rarely Win the ROTY Award
First-round draft picks have won 24 of the last 25 NBA Rookie of the Year awards (96%), including nine of the last 10 (90%). Malcolm Brogdon is the lone exception, winning the 2016–17 award with the Milwaukee Bucks after being selected 36th overall in the second round.
He remains the only second-round pick to win Rookie of the Year since Willis Reed in 1964–65. In total, only four second-round picks have ever won this award.
Does Team Success Equal ROTY Wins?
Only four of the last 25 NBA Rookie of the Year winners (16%) played for teams with winning records, including three of the last 10 (30%). Malcolm Brogdon (2017), Ben Simmons (2018) and Scottie Barnes (2022) are the only winners from winning teams over the past decade.
Of the previous 25 winners, 20 played for teams with losing records, while Derrick Rose’s 2008-09 Bulls finished at .500. These results demonstrate that individual performance carries considerably more weight than team success in the Rookie of the Year race.
Do NBA Rookie of the Year Winners Make the Playoffs?
Just five of the last 25 NBA Rookie of the Year winners (20%) played for playoff teams, including three of the last 10 (30%). Scottie Barnes, Ben Simmons, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick Rose and Amar’e Stoudemire were the only winners to reach the postseason during that span.
With 80% of winners missing the playoffs over the past 25 seasons, postseason qualification is a non-factor in Rookie of the Year markets.
Limited College Experience Has Led to More ROTY Wins
Players with one college season or prior professional basketball experience have won eight of the last 10 NBA Rookie of the Year awards (80%) and 15 of the last 25 (60%).
Only Ja Morant and Malcolm Brogdon spent multiple seasons in college among the past 10 winners. Over the last 25 years, eight winners played multiple college seasons, while two entered the NBA directly from high school.
How Accurate Are Preseason Rookie of the Year Odds?
Six of the last 10 NBA Rookie of the Year winners (60%) entered the regular season as betting favorites or co-favorites. Cooper Flagg, Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, LaMelo Ball and Luka Doncic were outright favorites, while Ja Morant shared the shortest preseason odds with Zion Williamson. When comparing operators through sportsbook reviews, check the available price as well as the market rules.
