Week 1 NFL Best Bets – Sides
Nothing quite compares to the energy of Week 1 in the NFL for football bettors. All those summer hours spent handicapping the upcoming season finally pay off with action on the field, as thoughts and opinions on teams quickly turn into black-and-white results.
Welcome back to another year of the grind.
As exciting as opening week is, it’s a great reminder that the NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. Oddsmakers and sharp bettors have been shaping these Week 1 point spreads for months, sucking the obvious value out of the board.
While that makes finding an edge a bit tougher, games aren’t played on paper. When the dust settles, 16 teams will cover the spread this week, and the goal is to make sure we’re on the right side of them.
With that in mind, let’s dive into my favorite NFL point spread picks for Week 1.
Game #1: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore vs Indy Week 1 Point Spread Best Bet: Indianapolis +3.5 (-120)
NFL teams go through a lot of coaching changes each offseason, and while those changes bring plenty of hope to fans, it can be an exploitable scenario for NFL bettors in Week 1.
It’s the first time in almost two decades that Baltimore doesn’t have HC John Harbaugh at the helm, and a change was needed. New HC Jesse Minter brought in an overhauled staff—21 of 25 coaches are new, including both the OC and DC. The hope is that this new regime can unlock that next step for Lamar Jackson and this Ravens core.
That very well could happen this year, but it’s far more likely that it’s going to take some time before the Ravens hit their stride. And yet, season-long optimism for Baltimore is baked too heavily into this Week 1 spread.
Rookie head coaches are always a good outright fade in Week 1, going 2-5 SU in 2025 and 3-5 SU in 2024, respectively. Furthermore, the last time an NFL head coach won a debut game as a road favorite was with Brandon Staley and the LA Chargers back in 2021. The 20-16 win as a 1.5-point road favorite was good enough for the cover, but winning by 4+ is the expectation for Baltimore this week.
I just don’t see it happening.
Indy returns all three key coaching spots (HC, OC, DC), and that continuity should provide a huge edge for this home dog. Returning QB Daniel Jones aims to prove his mid-season resurgence before getting injured wasn’t a fluke. Notably, the only home game Indy lost with Jones under center last year was a 20-16 divisional battle against Houston.
If a four-point Baltimore win is where this game lands, then so be it, but I believe it’s far more likely the Ravens start the year out 0-1 SU. Rookie staffs laying points on the road in Week 1 is a spot I’m happy to bet against every year, and that includes dabbling on the moneyline as well.
Game #2: Buffalo Bills (pick) vs Houston Texans
Buffalo vs Houston Week 1 Point Spread Best Bet: Houston Pick
Here we have another home team catching points against a Buffalo squad undergoing a similar regime change. Much like Baltimore, the market views Buffalo as a team that needed a coaching swap to elevate its MVP quarterback.
Whether that happens in 2026 remains to be seen, but the situational spot is virtually identical to the Baltimore/Indianapolis game. Those same struggling numbers for rookie head coaches in Week 1 apply to new Buffalo HC Joe Brady, who now has to worry about managing the whole team, not just leading QB Josh Allen and the offense as the OC.
Brady being Buffalo’s OC last year makes the spot a little less valuable than the Ravens/Colts game from a betting perspective, as Brady’s already built a rapport with the players and is just moving up the corporate ladder within the same company. That should help the Bills hit the ground running in 2026 more than, say, Baltimore, but Josh Allen is still 0-2 SU and ATS in Houston during the last two regular seasons, and 0-4 SU in this building in his career.
Allen has been ambushed by the Texans defense in seemingly every visit to this stadium (eight sacks in the 2025 game), and Houston’s defense is expected to be ferocious again this year. And this is after they finished first in total yards allowed per game (277.2) and total defensive EPA (-0.16) a season ago.
Combine that idea of having a top defense with plenty of continuity, with the new coaching staff and it makes backing Houston at home an easy second choice for best bets this week.
Game #3: Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs New York Giants
Dallas vs New York Week 1 Point Spread Best Bet: New York +3 (-115)
My third best bet of NFL Week 1 is on another home underdog, albeit one with a new head coach themselves.
I’m backing this new head coach in Week 1 because it is 18-year vet John Harbaugh, a guy who was unemployed for about five minutes after he left Baltimore last spring. It was the Giants who scooped him up, and the hope is he brings some stability and results to this organization that hasn’t seen much of either for years.
Starting his Giants tenure with a divisional matchup on SNF probably isn’t ideal from Harbaugh’s perspective, but what it does do is allow him to change the national/market perception of the Giants in 2026 right out of the gate. Harbaugh might be new, but he’s opening up against a team his players are quite familiar with, having just beaten them for the first time in 10 tries the last time they took the field (34-17 NYG in Week 18).
New York played Dallas tough in both meetings last year (OT loss @ Dallas). After the organization and its fans have spent Week 1 in each of the last three seasons seeing their team fail to score a single touchdown (40-0 loss in 2023, 28-6 loss in 2024 and 21-6 loss in 2025), it’s safe to assume that top brass has told Harbaugh that starting fast is a must.
A trip to face the LA Rams on MNF next week makes it hard to see the Giants losing anything by “emptying the tank” this week, especially against a division foe. A loss might be expected in LA, but 1-1 SU still feels a lot better to a young team when it includes 1-0 inside the division.
That’s precisely what I see New York doing in Week 1, but I’ll take the points just to be safe. Have a look at the NFL betting sites if you are looking to choose a sportsbook.
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