Packers vs. Jets Prediction Week 2 NFL
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. New York Jets: Total set at 44.5
The Green Bay Packers look to rebound this week following a disastrous fourth-quarter collapse against the Minnesota Vikings. Initially, Green Bay played a solid game, holding a 22-17 lead into the 4th quarter, but the momentum completely shifted after a critical decision by head coach Matt LaFleur.
With 13 minutes remaining, Green Bay kicked a field goal on fourth-and-6 that would have put the Packers up 25-17. Instead, an offside penalty on Minnesota during the play tempted LaFleur to take the points off the board and attempt a fourth-and-1 conversion. The choice backfired when Jordan Love was stopped short on a subpar quarterback sneak.
From that moment on, everything went south for Green Bay. Assisted by three crucial third-down defensive penalties on the following drive, Minnesota marched downfield to claim the lead.
Green Bay’s next two drives ended with a fumble and a Jordan Love INT, respectively, as Minnesota capitalized on both turnovers to transform a tight game into a devastating 39-22 Vikings victory.
Now the Packers are staring a 0-2 SU start straight in the face if they don’t find a way to rebound this week, and they’ll have to do so as road favorites against a nonconference foe in the New York Jets.
Should we be backing the Packers to do just that, or do the football gods still have some misery lined up for this squad?
Green Bay vs. NY Jets Breakdown
Green Bay Offense vs. NY Jets Defense
Green Bay Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.181 | -0.059 | -0.438 | 38.2% | 41.3% | 31.8% |
| Season | -0.181 | -0.059 | -0.438 | 38.2% | 41.3% | 31.8% |
NY Jets on Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.141 | -0.152 | -0.096 | 44% | 45% | 40% |
| Season | -0.141 | -0.152 | -0.096 | 44% | 45% | 40% |
Every single one of those advanced stat numbers in the chart for Green Bay’s offense ranked in the bottom third of the league in Week 1, although those disastrous drives late in the fourth quarter do skew them a bit.
Honestly, looking at a -0.438 Rush EPA (31st in the NFL) and just a 31.8% success rate on the ground (24th), Green Bay’s run game was practically nonexistent. It forced them into obvious passing situations, and it showed. Unless Green Bay establishes the run early, bettors will need to downgrade their rating on this offense, as it appears they desperately need RB Josh Jacobs back on the field.
That brings us to the Jets defense, which looks like a nightmare matchup for an efficient passing attack right now. Last week, New York completely shut down the air game, posting a dropback EPA of -0.152. They locked up receivers on the outside, forced the quarterback to hold on to the ball, and essentially eliminated any serious threats.
That did come against second-year starter Cam Ward and not a more proven commodity like Jordan Love, but if these numbers hold up for both sides in Week 2, Love is not going to have it easy.
Any overreliance on the passing game—similar to what we saw in Week 1—will likely make that winless start a reality.
NY Jets Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
NY Jets Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.126 | 0.338 | -0.038 | 48.4% | 50% | 47.2% |
| Season | 0.126 | 0.338 | -0.038 | 48.4% | 50% | 47.2% |
Green Bay Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.055 | 0.208 | -0.125 | 37.7% | 42.4% | 32.1% |
| Season | 0.055 | 0.208 | -0.125 | 37.7% | 42.4% | 32.1% |
Meanwhile, the Jets offense had a highly efficient performance in Week 1. QB Geno Smith’s return to New York finished with 215 passing yards on 19-of-24 passing in the 23-10 win, good enough for a 104 QB rating. The 0.126 EPA/play for New York also ranked 10th best in the league.
If Green Bay’s defense continues to manage a solid 40% pressure rate, as it did last week—even though it had to blitz 30% of the time to do so—Smith and the Jets receivers should find the end zone through the air. Carson Wentz was able to pick apart the struggling Packers secondary when he had time, and another experienced vet like Geno Smith should be able to do the same.
Injuries and Roster Notes
Green Bay Packers
- Warren Brinson – Defensive Tackle | Doubtful
- Zach Bako-Bewele – Offensive Lineman | Questionable
- Aaron Banks – Guard | Questionable
- Javon Hargrave – Defensive Tackle | Questionable
- Ty’Ron Hopper – Linebacker | Questionable
- Barryn Sorrell – Edge | Questionable
- Lukas Van Ness – Edge | Questionable
- Devonte Wyatt – Defensive Tackle | Questionable
- Brandon Cisse – Cornerback | Probable
New York Jets
- Omar Cooper Jr. – Wide Receiver | Doubtful
- Minkah Fitzpatrick – Safety | Doubtful
- Jamien Sherwood – Linebacker | Questionable
- Jarvis Brownlee Jr. – Cornerback | Questionable
- D’Angelo Ponds – Cornerback | Questionable
Four Week 1 starters are injured, but Minkah Fitzpatrick’s groin injury is the most troubling for the Jets. Fitzpatrick is currently listed as week-to-week, and because groin injuries heal slowly, bettors should expect him to miss time.
That’s a big loss against this Packers aerial attack, which had four different receivers catch at least one 30-plus-yard pass a week ago, as QB Jordan Love finished with 387 passing yards in the collapse.
For Green Bay to take full advantage, Love still has to be protected, and having RT Zack Backo-Bewele on the O-line is a big part of that. Backo-Bewele played every snap last week through this lingering knee injury, and you should expect him to be in there, even if he isn’t at 100%.
Trends
- Green Bay is 8-4-1 straight up as road favorites since 2023
- Green Bay is 3-10 ATS as road favorites since 2023
- Green Bay is 7-14 ATS off a loss since 2023
- Green Bay is 20-10 O/U on the road since 2023
- Green Bay is 9-4 O/U as road favorites since 2023
- New York is 3-11-1 ATS in non-conference games since 2023
- New York is 10-6 O/U at home since 2024
Green Bay vs. NY Jets Best Bet
Best Bet: Green Bay Team Total Over 23.5 (-135)
Given how Week 1 ended for both franchises, this line has felt like a great buy-low (Green Bay), sell-high (NYJ) opportunity for most of this week. We’ve already seen an opener of Green Bay -5.5 bet down to -3.5 as some big bets have gone New York’s way, and it’s easy to understand why. The Jets may not be great, but how can you trust this Packers team after what happened in the fourth quarter last week?
That’s the question I’ve struggled with all week, and it’s why I’ve pivoted to the Packers team total over as the best bet.
I believe Love and the Packers will quickly move past last week’s debacle and come out with the victory. However, with the spread still over a field goal and Green Bay 8-4-1 SU as road favorites since 2023 but just 3-10 ATS in those games, I do not want to get “hooked” by a three-point Packers win.
I’m not concerned about the strong defensive numbers the Jets currently own because they came in a season-opening game against a second-year QB on a team expected to finish last in its division this year. Green Bay’s attack is a much stiffer test for New York, and with Minkah Fitzpatrick on the sidelines, some regression for New York’s secondary is on the horizon.
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