Giants vs. Rams Prediction – Over 48.5 in NFL Week 2
New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7.5): Total set at 48.5
After treating a 17-hour flight to Australia like a regular road trip, the LA Rams landed just a day before the game, and the decision backfired. The Rams hope extra rest afterward yields better results this week.
The idea behind that travel approach was that it would pay off on the back end, and the betting market is expecting it to. The Rams are laying a touchdown at home on MNF against a New York Giants team that many didn’t expect to be 1-0 SU coming into this one, but Game 1 of the John Harbaugh era in New York featured a strong performance on both sides of the ball for the G-Men.
The idea behind going that travel route was that it would pay off on the back end, and the betting market is expecting it to. The Rams are laying a touchdown at home on MNF against a New York Giants team that many didn’t expect to be 1-0 SU coming into this one, but a strong performance in Game 1 of the John Harbaugh era in New York was a great one on both sides of the ball for the G-Men.
Can they keep it up on the road against this Rams team that can’t possibly be 0-2 SU after entering the year as Super Bowl favorites, right?
Can they keep it up on the road against this Rams team who can’t possibly be 0-2 SU after entering the year as Super Bowl favorites, right?
Here’s my breakdown of this game:
NY Giants vs. LA Rams Breakdown
New York Offense vs. Los Angeles Defense
NYG Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.363 | 0.667 | 0.059 | 59.1% | 69.7% | 48.5% |
| Season | 0.363 | 0.667 | 0.059 | 59.1% | 69.7% | 48.5% |
LAR Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.190 | 0.227 | 0.142 | 56.9% | 59.5% | 53.6% |
| Season | 0.190 | 0.227 | 0.142 | 56.9% | 59.5% | 53.6% |
These numbers from Week 1 for the Giants offense and Rams defense are astonishing in more ways than one.
To start, the QB Jaxson Dart-led Giants attack was the league’s best in EPA/play and Dropback Success Rate, finishing second in Dropback EPA and overall Success Rate as well. For a team with the Giants’ talent to do so is surprising, but to do so in Week 1 after a full coaching regime change is even more impressive.
Secondly, if I erased the team names from those charts and only told you that one of those teams entered the season as the Super Bowl favorite, almost no one would believe it was the Rams’ vaunted defense that put up those awful statistics.
I mean, the Giants finished 2nd in overall Success Rate at 59.1%, but right behind them in 3rd was the Rams’ opponent in Week 1: San Francisco.
Whether it was because of the travel or not, the 49ers offense pretty much got whatever it wanted against the Rams in Week 1. It was an awful look from start to finish for this defense that everyone was supposed to fear coming into the year, and now it has DE Myles Garrett going under the knife and missing multiple games. LA’s defense needs some good news, and it needs it rather soon.
Now, we should expect a big improvement in those defensive stats from LA this week, as the Rams are back at home on US soil and are facing a team that doesn’t know their intricacies as well as the 49ers probably do.
But that’s not to suggest those Week 1 numbers from the Giants offense should be ignored either. You can’t help but think the Giants will find enough success moving the ball on offense based on those Week 1 numbers alone that this might be one of those spots where the current spread of a touchdown is as fair and tough as it gets.
LA Rams Offense vs. NY Giants Defense
LAR Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.226 | -0.270 | -0.171 | 43.3% | 39.4% | 48.1% |
| Season | -0.226 | -0.270 | -0.171 | 43.3% | 39.4% | 48.1% |
NYG Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.271 | 0.425 | -0.100 | 48.3% | 51.2 | 41.2 |
| Season | 0.271 | 0.425 | -0.100 | 48.3% | 51.2 | 41.2 |
It wasn’t just the Rams defense that put up awful advanced stats in the Week 1 trip to Australia; LA’s offense couldn’t do much of anything either.
LA’s EPA/play of -0.226 ranked 28th in the league a week ago, and to have a Dropback EPA of -0.270, ranked 29th, when you’ve got Matthew Stafford for the full 60 minutes is just unacceptable.
The fact that all three phases of this Rams football team laid an egg in Week 1 makes it easy, and likely correct, to lay much of the blame on their travel choices. That does create the notion of the Rams being in a “buy-low” spot to a degree, especially when you see that, despite the win, the Giants’ defense was quite awful in those same particular stats.
New York’s defense ranked 28th in both Dropback EPA and EPA/play, meaning that this could be the ultimate bounce-back spot for Stafford and the offense. You can’t expect that side of the ball to go anywhere but way up in those statistics, and there is a good chance that journey starts in earnest this week.
LA is back at home, has had plenty of recovery time, and is in need of a win after dropping the opener to a division rival. In fact, the Super Bowl-favorite LA Rams were the only NFC West team not to win in Week 1.
Offensive cohesion should be the order of the day for Stafford and Co., as this is still the same squad that finished the year ranked second in the NFL in EPA/play (0.149) and was the only team to finish the season with a Success Rate above 50% (52.2%).
Injuries and Roster Notes
New York Giants
- Paulson Adebo – Cornerback | DNP
- Deonte Banks – Cornerback | Questionable
- Greg Newsome II – Cornerback | Questionable
- Andrew Thomas – Offensive Lineman | Questionable
- Francis Mauigoa – Offensive Lineman | Questionable
- Micah McFadden – Linebacker | Questionable
- Chauncey Golston – Defensive Lineman | Questionable
LA Rams
- Myles Garrett – Linebacker | IR
- Kamren Kinchens – Safety | Doubtful
- Kamren Curl – Safety | Questionable
- Nate Landman – Linebacker | Questionable
- Omar Speights – Linebacker | Questionable
The biggest injury news for this game concerned Myles Garrett acknowledging that he did need arthroscopic knee surgery, which will keep him out of at least the next four Rams games. Garrett wasn’t all that effective on his bum leg in Week 1, but neither were any of the Rams, really, so his loss is more big-picture for LA rather than anything specific to this week.
Trends
- LA is 8-4 ATS off a loss since the start of 2024 and 16-11-3 ATS since 2022
- Since 2024, LA is 15-15 ATS in conference games and 6-6 ATS as a home favorite
- New York is 9-4 ATS O/U since the start of 2025 (Dart era)
- New York was 5-2 O/U as a road underdog in the Dart era with a +7.9 average total margin
- Since 2021 (Stafford era), the Rams are 11-22 O/U as a home favorite; 3-9 since 2024
New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams Best Bet
Best Bet: NYG/LA Rams Over 48.5
It is hard to weigh Week 1 data, given that it’s still just one game of football and we have a rare Australia travel scenario to consider, but the only conclusion I consistently came to after looking at those numbers and diving deeper into them was that I expect to see points.
I expect the Rams to come away with the outright victory as well, as I think we’ll see a far crisper version of this team back at home, but I want to see them at or near their best this year before considering laying a full touchdown with them.
Preseason Super Bowl markets are notoriously inaccurate in a variety of ways, and often the names that look great on paper need some time to reach their full potential.
That’s how I view the 2026 LA Rams at this point, as I do expect them to score and ultimately win this game.
But winning by 8+? I’m not sure. There are definitely better side bets to make on the Week 2 board.
So, the “over” makes more sense to me, as I think the Giants offense will do enough to move the ball and score at least 20 points. I don’t think they’ll lead the league in EPA/play again, but the 49ers almost did against this Rams defense, so it’s not like there aren’t gaps available for the Giants to find.
Jaxson Dart’s dual-threat capabilities should also translate well against this Rams defense that still allowed 5.8 yards per carry to Brock Purdy a week ago.
Whether the Giants’ point total is enough to stay within this point spread, I’m not sure, but a 28-21 game is good enough to cash an “over” bet here.
With the Rams team total at 27.5 in the -120 range and a 20.5 team total for the Giants around +100, I believe a 28-21 score is more likely to be on the lower end of the range of total points we ultimately get in this game.
Take the over.
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