Ole Miss vs Florida – Why the Gators Have the Edge

Mississippi Rebels vs. Florida Gators (-3.5): Total set at 58.5

After an emotional victory over Lane Kiffin and LSU, the Mississippi Rebels are looking to build on their 3-0 SU start. It won’t be easy, as they travel to the Swamp for their first road game to face a blazing Florida Gators offense that has scored 40+ points in every game this year.

The Rebels’ defense has given up yards but few points, though maintaining that energy after such a draining week will be a massive challenge. Thankfully, Ole Miss has Heisman favorite Trinidad Chambliss leading the offense. If he needs to go blow-for-blow with Florida to boost his Heisman resume, he will.

Can Mississippi avoid a letdown and win as underdogs again, or will Florida’s dominant home-field advantage (the Gators have outscored opponents 118-24 through two home games) be too much for an emotionally drained team?

Here is what the numbers say:

Mississippi vs. Florida Breakdown

Mississippi Offense vs. Florida Defense

Mississippi on Offense

Florida on Defense

On offense, the Rebels have been absolute killers inside the 20-yard line. Before they met LSU, Ole Miss had been flawless in the red zone. They kept that dominance rolling, going 4-for-5 against the Tigers and maintaining a stellar 91.67% season red-zone TD rate. This offense has been so efficient all season, as their 0.538 points per play also suggest, that it’s hard not to like what QB Trinidad Chambliss and this offense do.

Chambliss went 33-for-48 for two TDs and 363 passing yards against LSU last week, and he threw in a rushing TD for good measure. The performance catapulted him back atop the Heisman odds board (+290 range) at the top college football betting sites, and now he hopes to keep it going against a Florida defense that has some glaring vulnerabilities.

The Gators rank 89th in opponent yards per point and a staggering 109th in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 48.57% of the time. Those numbers have been bad largely because the Gators also rank dead last in the country in opponent plays per game. Their defense is forced to grind through a grueling 82.5 plays per contest. If they give Chambliss and this Ole Miss attack that many opportunities with the ball in their hands, it probably won’t be a good afternoon for Gators fans.

It’s not all doom and gloom for this Gators defense, as their 54.55% opponent red-zone TD rate shows they can bend without breaking. However, in the long term, no unit can survive that kind of snap count without wearing down.

But here’s the twist: I also don’t think this massive defensive workload means Florida is a bad football team. It’s actually the direct byproduct of the Gators’ lightning-fast counterpunch. I’m sure a little more ball control on offense would be helpful, but the Gators’ offense scores in an absolute flash and has put up 40+ in all three games.

Florida Offense vs. Mississippi Defense

Florida on Offense

Mississippi on Defense

Speaking of that Florida offense, here’s a look at all 19 of their offensive TDs this year and how quickly they put up points.

It doesn’t take long to notice that only one of those TD scoring drives has lasted longer than five minutes, as this Florida team runs plays and moves the football in a hurry. Those quick drives have put Florida 3rd in the country in points per play (0.753), and that’s after going 2-for-5 on red-zone touchdown opportunities last week.

Yet, despite that inefficient effort from inside the 20-yard line, Florida still scored 44 points against that talented Auburn defense. On the road, no less.

This week, they get to face a defense going through that same situation—the first road game of the year—and that Rebels unit has also been great at bending but not breaking.

Having in-depth knowledge of what Lane Kiffin might do in the red zone likely helped the Ole Miss defense hold LSU to a paltry 1-for-4 mark on red-zone TD opportunities a week ago, but Pete Golding’s squad has been forcing all their opponents into field goal tries when they get down there. Ole Miss has held opponents to a red-zone TD rate of just 33%, with only three total TDs allowed all year.

That number will get tested against this explosive Florida attack, and with the Rebels’ defense still struggling to get off the field on 3rd down (both last week and all year), as the numbers suggest, this game could easily be decided by who wins those critical 3rd-down battles when the Gators have the ball.

Injuries to be aware of

Mississippi Rebels

• Kewan Lacy – Running Back | Questionable

Florida Gators

• Eric Singleton Jr. – Wide Receiver | Questionable

Singleton is out of his walking boot right now, and after suiting up against Auburn, he was ruled out just before kickoff. Florida’s offense has gotten along fine without him these last two weeks, and while it would always be better to have him in there, a limited version of Singleton likely doesn’t do him or the Gators’ offense any favors.

Lacy injured his shoulder in the second half of the LSU game, and although the MRI showed no significant damage, HC Pete Golding still figures Lacy will be a game-time decision. The Rebels had only 20 rushing yards vs. LSU after Lacy left the game, and his absence makes the Rebels’ offense more one-dimensional and reliant on Chambliss’s arm. That’s not necessarily a good thing against this Gators defense.

Trends

• Ole Miss is 10-3 SU on the 1H ML in its last 13 games
• Ole Miss is 2-1 ATS as an underdog with Pete Golding as HC
• Florida is 6-4 SU on the 1H ML in its last 10 games

Mississippi vs. Florida Best Bet

Best Bet: Florida -3.5

On paper, the numbers suggest that Ole Miss is a live underdog in this spot, as they have the Heisman favorite going up against a Florida defense that has faced more plays than any other college football team this season. Typically, that’s a recipe for success for the Heisman favorite.

But even with the spectacular Trinidad Chambliss under center, the chance of an Ole Miss letdown is too great after everything that went into last week’s LSU game—physically, mentally, and emotionally. Florida’s quick-strike attack is never out of it, even if the Rebels play from ahead most of the time, and I believe that no matter what style of game this turns out to be, the mental, physical, and emotional fatigue from a week ago will prevent Mississippi from keeping pace.

This is still a Gators team that ranks 3rd in the country in points per play, and with this also being the first road game for the Rebels this year, there is just too much situational negativity on the Ole Miss side.

I’ve got to fade them in this spot.

James Murphy

Years of Experience: 24+
Specialties & Areas of Focus: NFL, Betting

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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