LSU vs. Ole Miss Best Bet – Week 3

LSU Tigers (-2) vs. Mississippi Rebels: Total set at 57.5

Lane Kiffin’s return to Mississippi this week is easily the most anticipated game we’ve had this season, and there is no shortage of storylines and narratives for the contest. Kiffin leaving Ole Miss before their first playoff game last year was one of the most shocking coaching exits in college football history. With College GameDay in Oxford, Mississippi, this week, I’m sure many of the stories on how it all went down will get plenty of airtime.

But bettors are tasked with looking at this game from a much different perspective, focusing more on what we’ve seen from these two programs on the field already this year and how that will project to this Week 3 game.

There is no question about it: The manner of Kiffin’s exit from Ole Miss is likely to make this stadium the most hostile environment for a road team we will see in college football all year, and that should be factored into your handicapping.

But it’s not like the early-season results on the field for Kiffin’s new team (LSU) have suggested he made a bad choice to leave, as his team has started the year on fire.

The Tigers have already scored at least 45 points in each game, winning both games by an average of 36 points. That’s juggernaut-type status, and if something similar happens for LSU’s offense in Mississippi on Saturday night, it will be Kiffin who will be leaving the Ole Miss program scorned once again.

LSU vs. Mississippi Breakdown

LSU Offense vs. Mississippi Defense

LSU on Offense

Mississippi on Defense

The 96 points LSU has scored through its first two games rank 7th in the country among teams that have only played FBS-level competition, and it’s thanks to that phenomenal conversion rate on third down. The 57.58% third-down conversion rate LSU owns through two games is 10th in the country, with a majority of the teams ahead of them being ones who have beaten up on FCS competition at least once too.

LSU’s opponents weren’t just FBS by name either, as LSU hung 51 on Clemson in Week 1, and it was just the second time in Dabo Swinney’s 18-year tenure at Clemson that one of his teams had allowed 50+ points—and the first time during a regular-season game.

Kiffin understood the noise around his decision to go to LSU and the lofty expectations that would be thrust upon the program for that decision. He didn’t run from it when facing Clemson in Week 1. He used that high-profile game to make a statement both on the scoreboard and in the media (“imagine if we had “pro” players” in his halftime interview).

It’s hard not to think that this return to Mississippi provides a similar platform for Kiffin to make a statement with his team’s play, and I doubt he holds any bullets back in the attack. I’m sure Kiffin is plenty confident in the plan of attack he draws up as well, knowing that he is facing his old defensive coordinator (Pete Golding) on the other side.

Mississippi’s defense definitely has its work cut out for it this week, and considering it gave up 38 in this building to Louisville in Week 1, it might be a matter of containing LSU’s attack rather than trying to shut it down completely.

The expected hostility in the environment will help in that regard, as communication issues are one of the quickest ways to derail offensive rhythm for offensive-minded teams like LSU. If the hatred towards Kiffin and his new team ends up being next level, we very well may see Mississippi’s defense negate many of the statistical edges these numbers show for LSU’s offense.

Mississippi Offense vs. LSU Defense

Mississippi on Offense

LSU on Defense

Pete Golding would love to count on his defense to keep LSU’s attack at bay and hold them to some point total in the 20s, but he, along with bettors, thanks to a total in the high 50s, is likely thinking that the winner of this game will need to score 30+.

Mississippi has scored 41 points in each of its two wins this year. If the Rebels attack, they should have no problem reaching that mark. But if they come up against the version of this LSU defense that held Clemson to 1-of-13 on third down, it’s going to be tough sledding. But then again, LSU had the entire summer to prepare for what they expected to see from Clemson.

What ultimately decides this game is how the battle between the Ole Miss offense and LSU defense goes, because cases can be made for both sides.

Lane Kiffin’s teams have never been really known as defense-first squads, and with the home-field edge decidedly in favor of Ole Miss because of Kiffin’s involvement, I do believe the Rebels’ attack will have success.

And if LSU’s offense begins this game moving up and down the field scoring points, the Ole Miss offense will have no choice but to be ultra-aggressive and try to win another one of those 41-38-type games, as they did in Week 1.

LSU’s defensive numbers aren’t likely to stay this good-looking for the rest of the season, and what better program to start that regression for that defense than their head coach’s former program?

And putting everything else about this game aside—the circus atmosphere, all of it—the side you believe will win the battle between the Ole Miss offense and LSU defense should be the side you are willing to back.

Injuries and Roster Notes

LSU Tigers

Sam Leavitt – QB | Doubtful

Ole Miss Rebels

Kewan Lacy – Running Back | Probable

Keaton Thomas – Linebacker | Probable

Kam Franklin – Defensive Lineman | Probable

Tommy Kinsler – Offensive Lineman | Probable

Delano Townsend – Offensive Lineman | Probable

Sharif Denson – Safety | Probable

Deuce Alexander – Wide Receiver | Probable

Thankfully, injuries aren’t among the many storylines coming into this high-profile game on Saturday night, or at least that was the case up until Wednesday evening after 99% of this betting preview was written.

LSU starting QB Sam Leavitt appeared on the injury report at that time, shaking up the landscape of this game. Leavitt has finished both games for LSU this year and even did a post-game interview last week showing no signs of injury, so this addition really came out of the blue.

If Leavitt is unable to go, that does change the calculus quite a bit for this one. Kiffin will be forced to turn to sophomore QB FCS transfer Landen Clark with freshman Husan Longstreet behind him. The game plan for LSU to be continually aggressive likely doesn’t change, but turning to inexperienced, younger backups could see the LSU offense commit more mistakes than it has all year.

But with all the hoopla surrounding this game, Leavitt’s addition to the injury report was also met with plenty of skepticism from fans and the media as possible gamesmanship from Kiffin.

A “Doubtful” listing suggests a 25% chance the player will play, according to SEC rules, and I’m still of the belief it would take a lot to keep key players out of a game of this magnitude.

The news forced the point spread to move to LSU -1.5 and the total to drop to 57.5, two numbers that will move again once Leavitt’s status is officially announced.

So at this point, following reports out of LSU’s camp and taking a stance on whether his listing is just gamesmanship or not is how to approach this game from a betting standpoint.

Trends to Be Aware of

• Mississippi was 4-0 to the ‘Over’ last year as an underdog, including 2-0 O/U with Pete Golding as HC (both playoff games)

This is actually a run for the Rebels that extends to 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games as an underdog, and considering it was Kiffin at the helm for most of those, there might not be a need to put a lot of weight on that.

But the 2-0 O/U mark with Golding at the helm in last year’s playoff games is something to weigh to a degree because those were also the last times Ole Miss was put in this role where they were expected to lose. 73 total points in the Georgia win and 58 in the loss to Miami were the eventual tallies, with Ole Miss averaging 33 points themselves in those two games.

Hit that average of 33 again in this one, and the Rebels should have a chance to win, but this trend should serve as more support for those looking at going ‘over’ this total.

• Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally for pace of play

Despite Kiffin being known for his offensive ingenuity and love of playing fast, it’s actually the Ole Miss offense that plays faster this year. Running a play every 22.7 seconds on average is good for 5th-fastest in the country right now for the Rebels, and they aren’t going to deviate from that just because their old coach is back in town.

Deviating from fast-paced offenses is not something Lane Kiffin has ever done, and while his LSU team trails the Rebels in pace of play, the Tigers still check in 9th nationally at 22.9 seconds on average. A virtual dead heat to the naked eye.

LSU vs. Mississippi Best Bet

Best Bet: Over 57.5

Those pace-of-play numbers factored heavily into me landing on this ‘over’ play, as I think there is just too much speed and emotion in this game to not see points.

Now, that’s not to say I’m expecting each offense to “win” its battle against the opposing defense, as using the word “win” suggests to me that one side will play the majority of this game with a one- or two-score lead, and that’s not how I see it. I believe it’s back and forth until the dying seconds.

As much as you want to eliminate variables and unquantifiable factors in your handicapping, the Kiffin saga hanging over this game simply can’t be ignored. Ole Miss supporters want his head on a pike, and he’d love to skewer the hopes and emotions of all of them by coming back to Oxford and leaving with a victory.

That means that plenty of aggression should be on the menu for this one, and both teams already come loaded with Heisman hopefuls at QB.

Both offenses feature dynamic quarterbacks. You know Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss (+1100) would love to hang huge statistical numbers on his former coach, and Sam Leavitt (+3300), if he plays now, is hoping to prove that Kiffin left Chambliss for a better option at the QB position.

I know that the ‘over’ for this game is considered the “public side” for this total, with outlets showing 85%-plus of bets on the high side of this total. However, I think the public gets what they want, as ultimately, emotion, aggression, and plenty of points should all be in the air in Oxford on Saturday night.

Other Betting Considerations for the LSU vs. Mississippi Game

 LSU Team Total Over 30.5

Mississippi Team Total Over 27.5

 Following up a full-game ‘over’ play with other wagers on both team totals sailing over their numbers is pretty self-explanatory.

The reasons behind the full-game over bet— fast pace of play from both sides, offenses that know how to score, and the idea that 30+ points are needed to win—all apply to the team-total logic as well.

If you do believe the winner will have at least 30 points, as I do, only a 30-27 score dooms at least a split on these team totals going over their number.

That’s just too exact and too small a negative range to make me cautious about or scare me off adding these team total bets to the card.

James Murphy

Years of Experience: 24+
Specialties & Areas of Focus: NFL, Betting

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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