Key to Betting on Heisman & Futures
Predicting the Heisman Trophy winner is the second most-popular futures bet behind guessing the College Football Playoff champ. It’s actually our favorite futures wager because of the unique strategy behind it. Let ‘s go over two key components to consider with these bets.
Focus on QBs to Maximize Your Time
The best starting point with Heisman Trophy odds is quarterbacks because 16 of the last 20 winners have been signal callers. You might as well focus your research on the position that wins the award 80% of the time.
Look for standout QBs who are on contending teams. Of the post 16 Heisman quarterbacks, only Tim Tebow (2007) and Lamar Jackson (2016) failed to win double-digit games. A stud passer on a top-15 team should be enough to enter the conversation.
Storylines also have a big impact on Heisman Trophy odds. For example, Fernando Mendoza led an Indiana team that hadn’t won a bowl game since 1991 to the national title. Kyler Murray won in 2018, partially on account of making several key plays in rivalry games.
Of course, gaudy numbers also help a quarterback’s case. A strong Heisman QB candidate will typically finish with 3,500–5,000 passing yards and 35–50 passing TDs. Having dual threat abilities like Murray, Jackson, Tebow, and Jayden Daniels also helps impress voters.
Timing Is Everything with Heisman Trophy Odds
The best college football betting sites offer Heisman odds throughout the season. But that doesn’t mean you should sit back, wait, and take these wagers for granted.
The preseason is when you get the best value on candidates. Some players have longshot odds because they haven’t become household names yet. Here are examples of dark horses who defied long preseason Heisman Trophy odds to win:
- Lamar Jackson (2016): 10,000-to-1 odds
- DeVonta Smith (2020): 6,600-to-1
- Fernando Mendoza (2025): 5,500-to-1
- Joe Burrow (2019): 4,000-to-1
- Kyler Murray (2018): 3,000-to-1
You can still find value on candidates as the season rolls along. But odds become more solidified after big wins and narratives start forming. Mendoza was a nice value pick early in Indiana’s season, but that changed after a big October win over Oregon.
Factors to consider when trying to spot future Heisman winners early include:
- Previous year’s stats: Future winners actually begin building their Heisman case with a big season the year before.
- 10 wins or more: A player typically needs at least 10 wins, if not a Power 4 conference championship, to cement their trophy claim.
- Potential for Heisman moments: At least two marquee matchups during the season will give a player the chance to shine on national TV.
- Wow factor: Perfect deep balls, breakaway touchdown runs, and improvisational skills help candidates make highlight reels and stay fresh in voters’ minds.
- Media darlings: Walk-on underdogs, transfer successes, and hyped generational talents get big attention boosts from the media.
Recruiting Class Rankings & Future Success
Recruiting classes not only offer insight into what’s coming from a team that season, but also 1–3 years in the future. They help you spot mispriced teams for both futures and in-season bets before young talent takes off.
Following Recruiting Rankings for Multiple Years
Top recruiting classes rarely have an impact right away. After all, only 2–5% of a Power 4 team’s starting lineup includes true freshmen. Most blue chip prospects make a bigger mark in their sophomore year and become part of the team’s core by their junior season.
Following a school’s recruiting efforts for one offseason won’t make a big difference. Doing so for 2–3 seasons helps you predict future title contenders and early season success before the market catches up.
The blue-chip ratio (BCR) is a good way for you to guess future team success. It measures how much of a school’s roster is made up of 4- and 5-star recruits. Here’s what to expect from BCR figures:
- 50%+ = National title contender
- 35–50% = Playoff spot contender
- 25–35% = Decent bowl team
- Under 25% = Not a serious FBS competitor
Indiana became the first team to win a national title with under a 50% BCR since this ratio started being tracked in 2005. Other than the Hoosiers, every team over the past 20+ years has exceeded the 50% threshold for 4- and 5-star players.
Some programs consistently stay in the elite BCR range and are perennial contenders, such as Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas.
Others bounce in and out of contender status depending on how close they stay to upper BCR percentages. This is where tracking schools through 247Sports and Rivals helps you figure out who will be elite in 2–3 years and who’ll be fighting to stay in the top 25.
Don’t Ignore the Development Factor
Not all good teams have to bring in the nation’s top cornerback or outside linebacker to stay relevant. Some schools excel at developing 2- and 3-star players while remaining strong conference contenders.
Boise State, Iowa, Utah, and Wisconsin have all had long-term successes because they’re good at developing low- and mid-tier recruits. These schools thrive on taking unheralded players at certain positions and turning them into highly productive college players.
The Hawkeyes have become an offensive linemen factory, for example, while the Utes are good at bringing along defensive players.
Of course, you’ll still want to check recruiting efforts for schools like these. Wisconsin typically ranks in the 35th–40th range for recruiting classes. If you notice them slipping to 50th–60th, then a slide is likely incoming within the next couple of years.
Meanwhile, you might suddenly notice a school like BYU landing in the 25th–30th range when they normally bring in 40th-50th classes. You could use this info to make a Big 12 futures bet if the price is right.
