Betting Against the Public (Fading the Chalk)
Spend five minutes looking at NFL betting tips, and you’re sure to come across fading the public. The concept of betting against the side with more tickets sounds easy, but it’s a bit more nuanced.
The main reason to fade the chalk isn’t because the public is always wrong, because they’re not. It’s to go against casual bettors’ tendency to overvalue factors like big-market teams, MNF/primetime games, overs, and superstar QBs. Looking at a MNF game with Dak Prescott? Now’s a good time to make that under bet or fade the Cowboys.
You can also potentially identify sharp money—knowledgable bettors who wager big sums—by looking at public tickets and line movement together. Let’s go over an example:
- A public betting percentage site shows 75% of bets on Buffalo -7.
- Sportsbooks move the line to -6.5.
- They’re now encouraging even more public money on the Bills.
This move indicates that bookies are more worried about sharp money on the underdog and want even more action on Buffalo. That said, you can fade the chalk by taking the +6.5 dog.
The Wong Teaser Strategy (Crossing Zero)
Developed by legendary gambler Standard Wong, this classic system focuses on NFL teasers and key numbers. The idea is that you’re teasing selections across common victory margins, especially 3 and 7.
Wong Teaser involves making 2-team bets with 6-point teasers. It works best using favorites with spreads ranging from -7.5 to -8.5, and underdogs ranging from +1.5 to +2.5 points. Here are examples of these lines being teased:
- -7.5 favorite teased down to -1.5 → Your team can now win by less than a field goal.
- +1.5 underdog teased up to +7.5 → Your pick can lose by a touchdown.
In both cases, you’re teasing teams beyond the common 3- and 7-point winning margins. This system is most effective when the odds are below -120 (although not overly common) and the blowout risk is low. You should skip it when teaser odds creep closer to -130 and there’s a massive favorite.
How Injuries to Offensive Linemen Impact Odds
Everybody notices when a star running back misses a game, but what about the men in the trenches opening holes for him? Injured offensive linemen have a hidden impact on NFL pricing that can hurt yards per carry, QB protection, red zone efficiency, and turnover margin.
Even the best NFL betting sites can be slow to adjust for missing linemen because they know most bettors won’t notice. By paying close attention to line injuries, you might find small edges before bookies react.
Super Bowl Futures Trends
Football betting apps let you wager on the future Super Bowl champ not long after the Lombardi Trophy is hoisted in January. This time, and the months to follow, provide opportunities to guess the next champ at favorable odds. Some trends to remember when doing so are:
- Don’t Pick the Preseason Favorite: The preseason darling has only won the Super Bowl three times since 2005. Avoid running with the hype and overspending on favorites.
- Longshots Are Exactly That: You’re also unlikely to find the next SB winner on the bottom of the +30000 futures scrapheap. 10 of the past 11 champs had at least +1200 odds or stronger.
- Make Sure Your Team Has an Elite QB: For every Trent Dilfer who wins a Super Bowl, there’s a long line of Patrick Mahomes and Tom Bradys. In fact, 14 of the past 20 champs have had a quarterback who also won the MVP that season.
- Pay Attention to Late Season Improvement: Some teams gradually shape themselves into contenders through roster changes and overall improvement. For example, the 2021 LA Rams (+1200) were fringe contenders until putting everything together in the last few months.
Betting on NFL Player Props
Many experts point to player props like TD scorers, QB passing yards, and RB rushing yards as some of the most valuable wagers. One reason why is because you have less variables to consider, vs. having to account for entire teams through spreads, moneylines, and totals.
For example, a Sam Darnold over/under 250.5 passing yards prop would involve considering his recent form, the opponent’s pass rush, and the opposing secondary. There’s no worrying about the run game or Darnold’s own defense.
Consider if Jonathan Taylor will find the end zone for another example. Your main focus will be on Indy’s offensive line, the opposing front seven, and how many rushing yards the opponent allows. The Colts’ passing attack (freeing up the run game) and the opposing secondary can still play factors, but they’re not as crucial to placing a winning wager.
Betting limits aren’t very large with player props because bookies don’t want you exploiting obscure props. But we still find these wagers quite worthwhile in the grand scheme.
James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.
