Week 5 NFL Best Bet – Arizona Can Tame Detroit
Detroit Lions (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals: Total set at 54.5
The highest total on the NFL Week 5 slate comes from Glendale, Arizona, as the high-flying Detroit Lions roll into town.
Both Detroit and Arizona look to rebound from disappointing defeats a week ago, as each defense allowed 30+ points and neither offense could keep pace. Detroit failed to score 31 points for the first time in 2026, and Arizona’s EPA/play fell off a cliff compared to its season average.
Both offenses should be in line for a bounce-back performance against two defensive units that have done nothing but give up points. Arizona ranks 29th in the NFL, allowing 29.3 points per game, and Detroit ranks 31st, allowing 31.8 points per game.
Those defensive numbers scream “shootout,” but the advanced numbers may offer a clearer betting edge.
Detroit vs. Arizona Breakdown
Detroit Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Detroit Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.152 | 0.246 | -0.144 | 45.1% | 50% | 29.4% |
| Season | 0.144 | 0.274 | -0.093 | 49.6% | 52.2% | 44.9% |
Arizona Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.068 | 0.187 | -0.385 | 33.8% | 44.4% | 20.7% |
| Season | 0.085 | 0.346 | -0.241 | 44.4% | 49.6% | 38% |
Detroit enters this game as one of the league’s most complete offensive units, ranking 5th in EPA per play, Dropback EPA, and Dropback Success Rate. With a ground game that also ranks 7th in Rush Success Rate, the Lions have the 3rd-best offense in overall seasonal Success Rate.
Last week’s 32-26 loss to Carolina was the first time all season the Lions failed to score at least 31 points. Still, QB Jared Goff is playing with tremendous confidence right now. Getting the ball out of his hands quickly to his talented playmakers has propelled this unit all season long.
Arizona’s defense counters with a front seven playing its best football of the year. Last week, the Cardinals allowed a microscopic 20.7% Rush Success Rate—the best mark in the NFL for the week—which propelled them to the 4th-best overall defensive Success Rate (33.8%) of the slate.
However, despite that elite run defense, the Cardinals remain severely compromised through the air, ranking 25th in Dropback Success Rate (49.6%) and a dismal 31st in Dropback EPA this season. I think that glaring weakness plays directly into Detroit’s aerial identity. While Arizona has the discipline up front to slow the Lions’ run game, it lacks the secondary personnel to hold up for four quarters.
Which unit ultimately wins those passing battles in key spots is exactly how I think this game will be decided when Detroit has the ball.
Arizona Offense vs. Detroit Defense
Arizona Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.206 | -0.365 | 0.054 | 45.5% | 43.9% | 48% |
| Season | -0.019 | 0.010 | -0.069 | 46.2% | 46.8% | 45% |
Detroit Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.286 | 0.451 | -0.030 | 49.3% | 52.1% | 44% |
| Season | 0.208 | 0.294 | 0.025 | 49.3% | 53% | 41.5% |
Arizona’s offense had a brutal outing last week, posting an EPA per play of -0.206, the fourth-worst mark in the league. However, there was a silver lining: the Cardinals managed one of their most successful weeks running the football, posting a strong 48% Rush Success Rate. The team still ranks a respectable 11th in the NFL in overall seasonal Success Rate (46.2%), and it hasn’t even put together a complete game in which the run and pass click simultaneously.
Facing a sieve-like Detroit defense could be exactly what this Cardinals unit needs.
The Lions must score 30-plus points out of necessity because their defense cannot stop anyone. Detroit’s opponents average a massive 31.8 points per game, and three of its first four opponents have scored at least 30 points.
Last week, the Lions’ defense was the second-worst unit in the league in EPA per play (0.286), and Detroit enters this matchup sitting dead last at 32nd in that category for the season.
In fact, Detroit ranks in the bottom four of the NFL in five of the six featured statistical categories, with only its 21st-ranked Rush Success Rate sparing it from a clean sweep of futility.
We’ve already seen this Arizona team score 24+ points in three of four games this year, but none of those performances came at home. This should be the spot where Cardinals fans get to see their offense cook at home.
Injuries and Roster Notes
Detroit Lions
- J. Reed – CB | Questionable
- Rock Ya-Sin – CB | Doubtful
- Amik Robertson – CB | Active
- Ben Bartch – G | Questionable
- Brian Branch – S | PUP List
Arizona Cardinals
- Paris Johnson Jr. – OT | Out
- Jayden Williams – OT | Active
- Isaiah Adams – OL | Questionable / Doubtful
- Jon Gaines – OL | Active
- Andrew Wingard – FS | Questionable
- Dadrion Taylor-Demerson – S | Questionable
- Jeremiyah Love – RB | Questionable
Detroit vs. Arizona Best Bet
Best Bet: Arizona +5.5
With a mid-50s point total, both teams should score. Compare the spread across sports betting sites before backing the home underdog.
However, I have zero interest in sweating a late-game score to squeak over a total I believe is quite accurate. Instead, in a matchup I expect to be a high-flying shootout that ultimately comes down to who has the ball last, I want as much of a cushion as I can get by taking the points with the underdog.
Honestly, I believe that backing road favorites with sieve-like, bottom-tier defenses is where bankrolls go to die. Facing this high-octane Detroit offense isn’t intimidating when you realize its defense will give those points right back.
Detroit’s opponents have responded directly to a Lions score with a scoring drive 12 times this season (at least twice by every opponent). Carolina did it four straight times last week, scoring on six consecutive possessions overall.
That is exactly the type of awful defense I want to fade, especially when its team is laying chalk on the road.
Whether this game takes place in Glendale, Detroit, or on the moon, I don’t understand how anyone can confidently lay anything more than a field goal on this Detroit team right now.
Give me the home dog, as Arizona is live for the outright upset as well.
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