Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Week 3
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Total set at 42.5
The Minnesota Vikings travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3 with a tight point spread (1.5) and a low total (42.5), even though it’s a 2-0 team visiting an 0-2 squad.
Minnesota has ridden Brian Flores’ defensive masterclass to early success this year, punctuated by allowing just three points in Chicago last week. Flores and the Vikings defense lead the league in blitz rate and have had no trouble pressuring opposing QBs.
Losing a prized free-agent starting QB early in Week 1, as the Vikings did with Kyler Murray, could force a team to rely on its defense. All eyes will be on whether Flores stays that aggressive with Murray back.
The 0-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are already desperate for their first win, and QB Baker Mayfield leads the league with a 91.7% completion percentage against the blitz this year (11-for-12). It will be interesting to see how the Vikings defense approaches that matchup as Minnesota tries to put an early nail in the coffin of Tampa’s season.
For bettors weighing the spread and total across NFL betting sites, a few other numbers could shed more light on how this game may play out.
Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay Breakdown
Minnesota Offense vs. Tampa Bay Defense
Minnesota Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.073 | 0.013 | -0.151 | 34.6% | 40% | 29.6% |
| Season | -0.004 | 0.124 | -0.138 | 36.3% | 41.4% | 30.9% |
Tampa Bay on Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.017 | 0.342 | -0.567 | 44.6% | 55.6% | 25% |
| Season | 0.009 | 0.151 | -0.224 | 46.2% | 54.1% | 33.3% |
Looking at these numbers, Minnesota could have an easy road to victory if the Vikings are selective with the ground game, because they are not built to run the football right now.
Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league with a miserable 30.9% rushing success rate on the season, a number that was even worse last week (29.6%) in a rain-soaked, run-heavy environment. Trying to force the run against this Tampa Bay front seven hasn’t worked for either of Tampa’s opponents this season. Cleveland finished last week’s game with a measly 44 yards on 23 carries (1.9 yards/carry).
Instead, the Vikings need to attack Tampa Bay exactly where they are bleeding. The Bucs’ secondary is incredibly vulnerable, ranking 29th in the league in dropback success rate. Last week alone, Tampa allowed a massive 0.342 dropback EPA and a 55.6% dropback success rate. This pass defense is full of holes, and with Murray back for Minnesota, this Vikings attack could be uniquely equipped to exploit them.
WR Justin Jefferson leads a deep, explosive receiving corps that has been waiting to break free. They lost Murray early in Week 1 and had to endure the elements in Week 2, two weeks that were never going to be conducive to putting up big passing stats. A trip to sunny Florida with Murray back could be exactly what they need.
The Vikings’ overall offense ranks 30th with a 36.3% success rate, but that metric is skewed by Murray’s Week 1 concussion.
Still, the Vikings’ offense posted a solid 41.4% dropback success rate in his absence, and his added talent should help Minnesota’s passing stats improve in the coming weeks.
Tampa Bay Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
Tampa Bay Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.199 | -0.309 | 0.015 | 36.9% | 32.6% | 45.5% |
| Season | -0.145 | -0.242 | 0.060 | 43.8% | 42.7% | 46.2% |
Minnesota Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.138 | -0.025 | -0.309 | 31.5% | 31.8% | 31% |
| Season | -0.159 | -0.042 | -0.365 | 34.8% | 36.7% | 31.4% |
Tampa fans hope the Buccaneers’ poor offensive stats so far this year are just a bad two-game sample, but against this Minnesota defense, the numbers paint a grim picture for Tampa Bay.
Baker Mayfield and this offense have been struggling everywhere, ranking a dismal 28th in overall EPA per play. Mayfield’s -0.242 season dropback EPA and turnovers (3 lost fumbles, 1 INT) have been highly problematic. Now he has to run directly into the buzzsaw that is this Vikings defense, which ranks 2nd in overall defensive success rate and leads the league in defensive dropback success rate. That’s not conducive to making any sort of bet on the Bucs this week.
But the ultimate chess match will be Baker vs. the blitz, and how those plays unfold will determine which team walks away with the win.
As I mentioned in the opening, Baker leads the league in completion percentage (91.7%) against the blitz through two weeks. That number will be tested against a Vikings defense with a staggering 79.3% blitz rate. I don’t think either side will shy away from that head-to-head battle when the Bucs have the ball, so it’ll be fascinating to watch.
Can Baker flip the script against the league’s best pass defense? I think he can, partly because he won’t have a choice. He knows the season is basically on the line at 0-2, and Flores will bring the heat no matter what. Both factors should lead to aggression, especially given how weak the Bucs defense has been at keeping points off the scoreboard.
Baker likely figures he needs at least 24 points to bring home that first win of the season, a number none of Minnesota’s foes has yet reached. You won’t do that without going for some big chunk plays against a very aggressive defense, and that fits Mayfield’s character to a T.
Injuries and Roster Notes
Minnesota Vikings
- Brett Thorson – Punter | Out
- Nick Samac – Center | Out
- Aaron Jones Sr. – Running Back | Questionable
- Jake Golday – Linebacker | Questionable
- DeeJay Dallas – Running Back | Questionable
- Jalen Redmond – Defensive Lineman | Questionable
- Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins – Defensive Lineman | Probable
- Brian O’Neill – Tackle | Probable
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Rueben Bain Jr. – Outside Linebacker | Out
- Josiah Trotter – Linebacker | Out
- Anthony Nelson – Outside Linebacker | Questionable
- A’Shawn Robinson – Defensive Lineman | Probable
- Jalen McMillan – Wide Receiver | Probable
- Jacob Parrish – Cornerback | Probable
Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay Best Bet
Best Bet: Over 42.5
The total is the best play here. Tampa Bay and Baker urgently need a win, while Murray’s return is likely to spark the Vikings’ aerial attack, making this a good spot to bet on points.
Mayfield has already been so good against the blitz that I’m not afraid to go up against this Vikings defense, and Baker will impose his will on them at times, too. As long as he protects the football, Tampa should score in the 20s at a minimum in this desperation spot as a slight home underdog in danger of falling to 0-3.
At the same time, nobody is happier to see Murray return under center than the Vikings wide receivers, and they get to welcome him back by facing one of the league’s worst secondaries in terms of dropback success rate. That should play right into Minnesota’s hands, as they aren’t interested in running the ball much anyway.
I expect the football to move up and down the field all afternoon. With a near-pick’em point spread and a total that would let a 24-21 score cash an over ticket, I think expecting points is the best way to bet this game.
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