Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts – Week 3

Houston Texans (-1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Total set at 42.5

We have a fascinating Week 3 battle as the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts square off in the first of two meetings this year, both looking to avoid a disastrous 0-3 start.

Despite both teams being 0-2, the Houston Texans are listed as the road favorite, creating an interesting dilemma for bettors considering Houston. Statistically, the Texans have edges, especially on defense, but those may not be enough to make them a clear favorite on a neutral field, as the line suggests.

But betting the side isn’t the only way to attack a critical divisional matchup like this. With the total set at 42.5, keeping an eye on live NFL odds can help bettors track any movement as we dive into the numbers and look for statistical edges to exploit.

Houston vs. Indianapolis Breakdown

Houston Offense vs. Indianapolis Defense

Houston Offense

Indianapolis Defense

Looking at this matchup between Houston’s offense and Indy’s defense, I see a battle over who can fix their glaring flaws first. Houston’s season numbers haven’t been great, but last week against Cincinnati was an absolute disaster.

The Texans finished with a miserable -0.239 overall EPA per play and a horrific -0.795 rush EPA. They couldn’t run the ball a lick, scraping together just 60 rushing yards on 18 attempts for a weak 3.3 yards per carry against a Bengals defense that had allowed two rushing TDs and 4.5 yards per carry the week before. Yet against that same defense, Houston’s rush success rate was a microscopic 6.7%.

It wasn’t just last week, either, as Houston ranks 29th in rush success rate this season at just 30.4%. When you can’t run the ball as a team, it’s easy to become completely one-dimensional, and that’s when defenses can pounce.

However, the silver lining for Houston this week is that the Indianapolis defense has been downright bad.

On the season, Indy ranks 30th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed at 0.202. The Colts are also the only team in the entire league allowing a success rate of 50% or higher against both the run (50%) and on dropbacks (51.2%). Even last week, they let the Chiefs cruise to a 53.8% overall success rate in a game Indianapolis arguably should have won. It’s a defense that hasn’t been able to stop a cold yet, and if there was ever a get-right game for Houston’s struggling offense to finally find some breathing room, I think facing this Indy defense is it.

Indianapolis Offense vs. Houston Defense

Indianapolis Offense

Houston Defense

The early-season numbers don’t tell nearly as clear a story when Indy’s offense is on the field, where the matchup is more strength against strength.

Indianapolis brings a much more balanced attack to the table, ranking 19th in dropback success rate and 7th in rush success rate, good enough for 10th in the NFL in overall success rate.

Indy is one of two winless teams, along with Washington, in the top 10 in success rate. On that alone, you’ve got to figure a win is coming if the Colts’ offense keeps putting up these numbers. In fact, they finished 6th in EPA per play in Week 2, and RB Jonathan Taylor already has four rushing touchdowns this season. The offense is the team’s strength, and it must keep producing.

Yet it won’t be easy against this Texans defense, which has struggled in EPA per play allowed (25th) but has held opponents to success rates in the 30s across all three major categories. Houston ranks 3rd in overall defensive success rate through two weeks and 2nd in defensive dropback success rate, continuing to keep opponents behind schedule on down and distance despite not winning games.

Remember, those numbers also came against starting QBs Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, so you can easily argue this may be a slightly easier matchup for the Texans defense, at least at QB.

But neither Buffalo nor Cincinnati runs the ball with the same success as Indy. If Jonathan Taylor finds early running lanes to exploit and the Colts’ playcalling stays balanced, Indy’s offense will be tough to contain at home.

Injuries and Roster Notes

Houston Texans

• Nico Collins – Wide Receiver | Doubtful
• Jadeveon Clowney – Defensive End | Doubtful
• Ed Ingram – Guard | Doubtful
• Jake Hummel – Linebacker | Doubtful
• J. Stewart – Safety | Questionable
• Trent Brown – Tackle | Probable
• Reed Blankenship – Safety | Probable
• Logan Hall – Defensive End | Probable
• Wade Woodaz – Linebacker | Probable

Indianapolis Colts

• Ashton Dulin – Wide Receiver | Out
• Alec Pierce – Wide Receiver | Out
• Charvarius Ward – Cornerback | Questionable
• Grover Stewart – Defensive Tackle | Probable
• Jonathan Taylor – Running Back | Probable
• Keenan Allen – Wide Receiver | Probable
• Ahmad Gardner – Cornerback | Probable
• Matt Goncalves – Guard | Probable
• Laquon Treadwell – Wide Receiver | Probable

Houston vs. Indianapolis Best Bet

Best Bet: Over 42.5

Despite concerns that Houston’s offense could keep struggling if WR Nico Collins can’t play, the Colts’ defense is bad enough that the Texans may not feel his loss. Being the only NFL team to allow success rates of 50% or better against both the run and the pass is about as bad as it gets. Even against a familiar division rival, the Colts likely need weeks to make a significant defensive improvement.

At the same time, Houston’s run-defense numbers are a little misleading given who they’ve faced, and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has been one of the best in the game for several years now.

Taylor continues to drive Indy’s attack, and with a powerful O-line that leads the league in rush success rate, I believe Indy will move the ball on the ground better than anyone has against Houston in a while.

Add in the desperation factor for both sides looking to get that first win, and this is another Week 3 game where I believe aggression on offense will be the story. These two have scored at least 42 points in six of their last seven meetings, and only one has been decided by more than one score.

This Week 3 game should follow a similar script, with the two AFC South rivals trading scores and finishing in the high 40s or low 50s when all is said and done.

James Murphy

Years of Experience: 24+
Specialties & Areas of Focus: NFL, Betting

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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