Virginia vs. Florida State: The Wrong Team Is Favored
Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5) vs. Florida State Seminoles: Total set at 51.5
For the latest line, check the live NCAAF odds for this game.
The first road game for the Virginia Cavaliers this season is down in Tallahassee, Florida, against an FSU squad that is desperate to avoid going 0-2 in the ACC.
Both sides have plenty to prove: Virginia wants to show their 3-1 start wasn’t just because of a soft schedule, and Florida State’s HC Mike Norvell still wants to prove he belongs in that position.
Norvell entered this year on the hot seat, took over offensive play-calling again, and has seen some success. FSU’s 2-2 start includes an average of 32 points per game on offense, and they’ve done it against SMU and Alabama.
Virginia hasn’t played anyone near that level yet, and it makes me question whether the Cavaliers should even be favorites in this spot.
But let’s see what the numbers show.
Virginia vs. Florida State Breakdown
Virginia Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Virginia on Offense
| Points per play | Plays per game | Yards per point | Red Zone TD Scoring % | 3rd Down Conversion % | |
| Last Week | 0.467 | 90 | 13.2 | 80 | 46.67 |
| Season | 0.444 | 77.3 | 12.8 | 77.78 | 35.56 |
Florida State on Defense
| Opp Points per play | Opp Plays per game | Opp Yards per point | Opp Red Zone TD Scoring % | Opponent 3rd Down Conversion % | |
| Last Week | 0.746 | 67 | 11.3 | 100 | 33.33 |
| Season | 0.463 | 67.7 | 15.6 | 50 | 51.16 |
Virginia brings an incredibly explosive, uptempo attack to Tallahassee this week. They ran 90 plays last week, and their season average of 77.3 plays per game ranks 8th nationally. This uptempo approach has paid off, as the Cavaliers currently rank 4th nationally in points per play (0.444), a big reason they are 3-1 at the start of the season.
These improved offensive numbers are because Tony Elliott’s squad has figured out how to finish more drives, with the 77% conversion rate on Red Zone TDs being a major improvement after the squad finished 96th in the country in that category last season.
If Virginia can maintain this lightning-fast tempo, they have the firepower to stress a Florida State defense that ranks 101st in opponent points per play and has frequently struggled to get off the field.
However, the Cavaliers could run into problems if they continue to struggle on 3rd downs. Virginia has been highly inefficient on the “money down,” converting just 35.56% of their third downs, good for 90th in the country.
Now, FSU’s season-long third-down defense ranks 126th nationally, which should help the Cavaliers improve those 3rd-down numbers, but the Seminoles have proven they can rise to the challenge against elite competition, notably holding Alabama to just 4-of-12 on third downs.
That said, SMU went 8-for-12 against FSU too, so it’s far from a lock that Florida State’s defense will come to play on Saturday.
And yet, even with many poor defensive numbers attached to FSU’s statistics this season, they seem to be alright with the “bend, but don’t break” methods they employ. Florida State has only allowed opponents to score touchdowns on half of their red zone trips, which is Top 40 nationally.
Florida State Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Florida State on Offense
| Points per play | Plays per game | Yards per point | Red Zone TD Scoring % | 3rd Down Conversion % | |
| Last Week | 0.537 | 67 | 13.1 | 50 | 53.33 |
| Season | 0.459 | 68.3 | 12.9 | 76.47 | 40.91 |
Virginia on Defense
| Opp Points per play | Opp Plays per game | Opp Yards per point | Opp Red Zone TD Scoring % | Opp 3rd Down Conversion % | |
| Last Week | 0.050 | 60 | 53.3 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Season | 0.269 | 60.7 | 15.6 | 50 | 35.71 |
Virginia’s defense has held opponents to that same 50% Red Zone TD percentage this year, but as with most of the Cavaliers’ stats through four weeks, the question of “Who have they played?” is legitimate.
Florida State’s defensive profile looks shaky on the surface, but they’ve already faced SMU and Alabama and closed as underdogs in both. Virginia has yet to close as anything shorter than a 4.5-point favorite and has played Norfolk State and Delaware in two of the last three weeks.
It goes to show you that although some statistics may show identical numbers, what went into them, especially in college football, isn’t always the same. Based on strength of schedule alone, FSU’s defense may be the far better unit when backed up in the shadow of their own goal line.
Considering Florida State’s offense may already be the best one the Cavaliers have faced this season, this game on Saturday could ultimately expose all of Virginia’s flaws that have been covered up by a soft September schedule.
Florida State enters the game ranking 39th nationally in points per play (0.459) and 56th in third-down conversions (40.91%). And although the Seminoles struggled in the red zone last week against Central Arkansas (50%), their season-long efficiency inside the 20-yard line remains a major strength. Florida State is also a perfect 17-for-17 on scoring drives when they reach the red zone this season, tallying 13 touchdowns and 4 field goals.
So when Florida State gets to the 20-yard line, you can expect points. And with the Seminoles averaging 32 points per game this season and scoring at least 24 in all of them, I do believe it’s more than reasonable to expect FSU to reach those averages once again.
Injury Report
Virginia Cavaliers
- Dillon Newton-Short – WR | Questionable
- Triston Ward – WR | Questionable
- Jason Hammond – DL | Out
Florida State Seminoles
- Ashlynd Barker – S | Probable
- Gavin Markey – TE | Questionable
- Tae’Shaun Gelsey – WR | Questionable
- Samuel Singleton Jr. – RB | Out
Virginia vs. Florida State Best Bet
Best Bet: Florida State +2.5 and ML (+115)
To me, Virginia has one of those classic resumes that look totally fraudulent through the first month, as their national ranking in some statistical categories on both sides of the ball almost has to regress to the mean now that the competition will get much tougher.
I mean, even Virginia’s Week 1 win over NC State is looking worse with each passing week, and the game against the only other established FBS program – West Virginia – ended in an 11-point loss as an 11-point home favorite for the Cavaliers.
And this is a team worthy of laying points on the road?
Yes, Florida State’s program isn’t running as smoothly as it could be right now, and HC Mike Norvell has seemingly been on the hot seat forever now.
But he’s got a good team this year, and as long as QB Ashton Daniels can take care of the football (5 INT), this offense has moved the ball on everyone. I can’t imagine this Virginia defense will be any different.
I think the wrong team is favored here, and Norvell’s extra motivation to keep his job only increases the odds the Seminoles are sharp for this one.
Take the points and put a fractional unit on the ML as well.
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