Ohio State vs. Iowa: Betting on a Hawkeyes Letdown

Ohio State Buckeyes (-14) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: Total set at 45.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes enter this matchup riding an emotional high after they “Michiganed” Michigan, stunning the Wolverines with a game-winning touchdown pass on the final play to steal a 20-19 victory a week ago.

But for as thrilling as that victory was for Iowa, the second half of this brutal two-week schedule gauntlet arrives this Saturday in Iowa City. The heavily favored Ohio State Buckeyes are in town.

Can the Hawkeyes capitalize on last week’s dramatic momentum to pull off an even bigger upset, this time in front of their adoring fans at Kinnick Stadium?

Or will the powerhouse Buckeyes flex their muscles, pull away, and cover this road chalk number against an Iowa program they have historically owned (9-2 SU since 2000)?

Let’s break it down now.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Breakdown

Ohio State Offense vs. Iowa Defense

Ohio State on Offense

Iowa on Defense

Ohio State features a highly efficient, explosive unit that currently ranks 6th in the country in points per play (0.657). The Buckeyes excel at sustaining drives, generating 21 total red-zone trips over the season and reaching the opposing 20-yard line at least four times in every single game. That’s a level of consistency that few college offenses have.

What makes it even worse for Ohio State opponents is that outside of their matchup against Texas (0-for-5 scoring TDs inside the 20), they have been nearly automatic inside the red zone, converting 14 of 16 opportunities into touchdowns. Now, the Iowa defense is more comparable to Texas than Illinois, Kent State, or Ball State – Ohio State’s other opponents – but it’s still going to be a massive test for them to contain QB Julian Sayin and the rest of this Buckeyes attack.

Iowa’s defense should be prepared as well.

The Hawkeyes boast a stout unit that ranks 4th nationally in opponent points per play (0.175) and 3rd in opponent yards per point (25.1). They haven’t allowed a single opponent to score 20 or more points and have allowed just two red-zone TDs all year. A big reason Iowa came back against Michigan last week was that the Hawkeyes’ defense held the Wolverines to just one TD on four trips inside the 20.

But the weapons this Buckeyes team has just aren’t like anything this Iowa team has seen so far, and it’s why they are still two-touchdown home underdogs despite those strong defensive statistics.

For Iowa to have a chance at the upset, its defense will need to carry the load. They rank 13th nationally in third-down defense (29.27% conversion rate allowed), and Ohio State is not as efficient as you’d expect (37th nationally). If the Hawkeyes’ defense can consistently win that third-down battle and get off the field more often than not, maybe we will see an upset on Saturday.

Iowa Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

Iowa on Offense

Ohio State on Defense

Iowa finished a perfect 100% in the red zone against Michigan, though getting there remains tough. The Hawkeyes have been limited to three or fewer red-zone trips in three of their four games this season, and when you have limited opportunities to score, you’d better make the most of them to have a chance.

But a 100% Red-Zone TD percentage on three total trips against Ohio State (21 points) might not be close enough to have a chance if the Buckeyes’ offense has its way. That’s the harsh reality for this Iowa offense right now, as the 39.53% conversion rate on 3rd down (65th) halts much of the momentum this unit tries to build.

And building momentum is extremely tough against this Ohio State defense. You can ask the Texas Longhorns. For most of three quarters, the Buckeyes had QB Arch Manning and Texas contained, only to experience those rough final 15+ minutes.

But that’s been about it for bad news for this Ohio State defense as they sit 6th, just behind Iowa, in opponent points per play (0.181) and 12th in opponent yards per point (22.4).

Furthermore, Texas has been the only team to score a red-zone touchdown against them – all other teams are 0-for-6 – and that could spell disaster for this Hawkeyes squad that struggles to get inside the 20 in the first place.

Injury Report

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Phillip Daniels – OL | Questionable/Doubtful
• Zion Grady – DL | Doubtful
• Jay Timmons – DB | Questionable
• Legend Bey – RB | Questionable
• Bennett Christian – TE | Out

Iowa Hawkeyes

• Tyler Brown – S | Questionable
• LJ Phillips Jr. – Running Back | Probable

Ohio State vs. Iowa Best Bet

Best Bet: Ohio State -14

Compare the latest lines at sports betting sites, including Bovada, before placing your bet. This one feels like the writing’s already on the wall for Iowa. This spot after the big Michigan win screams letdown, and with them already expected to lose by double digits, I think this one gets ugly fast.

Iowa just doesn’t match up offensively to strike fear in Ohio State. Unless the Buckeyes commit multiple turnovers and other costly mistakes, Iowa’s grind-it-out attack just can’t keep pace. And that’s if they can even find success against a stingy Ohio State defense.

This year, it’s been a given that Ohio State gets inside the 20 at least four times per game, and it feels like Iowa’s been lucky to get there twice per contest. Based on those averages alone, the Buckeyes already have a two-score advantage. Even another 2-for-2 afternoon scoring red-zone TDs, like the one they had in Michigan, might not be enough for Iowa to cover this number. That has to be quite the sobering thought.

So give me the more talented Buckeyes squad to roll into Iowa and leave with an easy victory.

The negative situational aspects of this game for Iowa, piled on top of a statistical profile that already suggests a severe uphill battle, will be too much for this home underdog to overcome.

James Murphy

Years of Experience: 24+
Specialties & Areas of Focus: NFL, Betting

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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