NCAAF Showdown – Texas vs. Oklahoma – Red River Rivalry Pick

Texas Longhorns (-8.5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners: Total Set at 39.5

Fresh off a week of rest, the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners meet for their annual Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl this weekend.

It’s a game featuring two teams that seem to be heading in opposite directions, as No. 1 Texas sits at the top of the polls and has passed every significant test so far (Ohio State, at Tennessee).

Meanwhile, Oklahoma has done nothing but fall in the polls with each passing week this season. A No. 10 preseason ranking slipped to No. 11 in the first week, fell to No. 24 after the loss to Michigan, dropped out of the rankings after a 14-6 win as 21-point favorites vs. New Mexico, and now sits around 50th after Georgia took them behind the woodshed, 41-13.

But when you only score 12.3 points per game, as the Sooners do, it’s hard to win football games.

So, do the Sooners even have a shot here? This program hasn’t scored a touchdown against Texas in this game in either of the past two seasons, and this seemingly broken offense now has to try to take down the No. 1 team in the land?

​From a narrative standpoint, that seems tough. But let’s see what the advanced numbers have to say. Bettors comparing prices and promotions for the matchup can also review BetUS Sportsbook before locking in a wager.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Breakdown

Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

Texas on Offense

Oklahoma on Defense

For Oklahoma to pull off this upset, they’ll have to rely on their defense. It’s been the program’s anchor since HC Brent Venables arrived from Clemson, and it’s seemingly what the Sooners spend all their time practicing, given how awful the offense has been.

But this Sooners defense is far from awful, ranking second in the country in opponent third-down conversion percentage (23.08%) and allowing opponents to convert only 30% of their red-zone visits into touchdowns.

They will have to be at their best again against this highly productive Texas offense, which ranks 12th in the country in yards per point (11.4) and has found ways to move the ball and score when needed all year. QB Arch Manning is learning to play his best football and steady the offense when the stakes are highest, delivering positive results.

Despite converting on only 25% of their third downs vs. Tennessee, Texas still ranks 12th in the country in that category at 50% overall. That’s one out of every two third downs moving the chains, and if the Longhorns do that against this Sooners defense, Oklahoma’s offense has little chance of keeping up.

However, the Longhorns rank a more modest 44th in points per play (0.449) as this offense has stalled out at times because of self-inflicted mistakes and penalties.

The struggles on third down last week may have been a byproduct of Texas playing its first road game. This one may be listed as a home game for the Longhorns, but the neutral venue should split the support 50/50.

If Manning and company make those self-inflicted errors here, the Longhorns will do nothing but leave the door open for the Sooners to shock the world.

Oklahoma Offense vs. Texas Defense

Oklahoma on Offense

Texas on Defense

Oklahoma’s offense has been abysmal all season, and nothing proves that better than the fact that the Sooners scored only 14 points against a New Mexico team they were favored to beat by 21 points. They were a full touchdown short of having a shot at covering the spread.

QB John Mateer and company followed that up by coughing up the ball four times to Georgia the following week. Oh, and their 0.181 points per play vs. Georgia was among the 20 worst marks in the nation for the week. Oklahoma’s most overused player is probably punter Grayson Miller.

You hope the bye week helped Venables and the Sooners coaching staff fix at least some of what ails this offense, but testing it against the No. 1 team in the country may not bring the desired results. This is still a Sooners attack that sits 121st nationally in red-zone touchdown percentage (44.44%). If they cannot execute inside the 20-yard line, generating enough points to stay competitive will be a massive chore.

Meanwhile, the Texas defense may not even let Oklahoma reach the red zone. They’ve held the Sooners to just three field goals total in blowout victories over the last two seasons, and they’re coming off an outing in which they didn’t allow an above-average Tennessee offense to reach the red zone. What chance do Mateer and the Sooners have, right?

However, for all the great defensive rankings the Longhorns own — fifth in opponent yards per play and 14th in opponent yards per point — one of their weaker areas is getting off the field on third down.

The Longhorns rank 33rd in the country in opponent third-down conversion percentage (33.93%), essentially the same as Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate on offense (33.96%). Those percentages suggest a coin-flip scenario on every third down when the Sooners have the ball. If Oklahoma gets lucky more often or executes better than it has all year, it might keep this one closer than the line suggests.

Injury Report

Texas Longhorns

• Jordan Coleman – OL | Doubtful
• Justus Terry – DL | Questionable
• Xavier Filsaime – DB | Questionable
• Nick Townsend – TE | Probable
• Hollywood Smothers – RB | Probable

Oklahoma Sooners

• Tyler Brown – S | Questionable
• Taylor Heim – LB | Doubtful
• Cole Sullivan – LB | Doubtful
• Michael Bogganowski – DB | Doubtful
• Trell Harris – WR | Doubtful
• David Stone – DL | Probable
• Jake Maikkula – OL | Probable
• Kip Lewis – LB | Probable

Texas vs. Oklahoma Best Bet

Best Bet: Oklahoma +7.5

Personally, I believe Oklahoma will find ways to be more successful on offense, even against a strong Texas defense.

For one, I think a bye week almost always benefits a struggling team (Oklahoma) more than a surging team (undefeated, No. 1 Texas), creating an expectation that the Sooners’ offense will be better. The idea that they couldn’t be much worse also creates a nice ‘buy low’ spot on them for this game.

It’s also now or never for John Mateer this season, especially against a hated rival the Sooners haven’t scored a touchdown against since 2023. Lay another egg and get blown out for the third straight season in this game, and everything about the program starts to look ugly to the fanbase.

But let’s not forget Texas is also 0-3 ATS in its last three outings, winning the games but not covering. That suggests this team is still slightly overranked in the markets, and maybe in a heated rivalry game like this, a spread slightly under the touchdown mark is the fairer line. For broader market context, compare the available options across our leading sports betting sites listings.

So give me the points with the Sooners, and I’ll hope we have already seen rock bottom for this offense. With Texas just 42% against the number as a road/neutral favorite in the Sarkisian era, I’ll take my chances that this is too many points for Arch Manning and the Longhorns to cover yet again.

James Murphy

Years of Experience: 24+
Specialties & Areas of Focus: NFL, Betting

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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