Play-In Panic—The Hornets’ Rise and the Lakers’ Fall

The most jarring numbers on the latest BetOnline.ag odds board don’t belong to the favorites, but rather to the teams fighting for their lives in the Play-In Tournament. We are officially living in a bizarro world where the Charlotte Hornets (75/1) have twice the probability of winning the NBA Championship as the Los Angeles Lakers (150/1).

The Charlotte Cinderella Story?

The Hornets are the clear “sharp” darling among the Play-In contenders. With 25/1 odds to win the Eastern Conference, they are being priced as a team that doesn’t just make the playoffs, but one capable of winning a round. Their youth and athleticism make them a terrifying first-round matchup for a high seed, and if you’re looking for a lottery ticket with actual legs, the +7500 on Charlotte is where the value sits.

Legacy Teams in the Cellar

On the flip side, the respect for the NBA’s “Old Guard” has completely vanished. The Lakers and the Philadelphia 76ers are both sitting at a massive 150/1 to win it all. Even more disrespectful? The Golden State Warriors at 400/1 and the Phoenix Suns at 500/1. The books are effectively saying that the era of LeBron, Steph, and KD is over. Unless you believe in a historic, legacy-defining run, these prices are a warning sign to stay far away from the veteran-laden “superteams.”

The Real Longshot Value

If you want a middle-ground play, the Houston Rockets (55/1) and Minnesota Timberwolves (55/1) are interesting flyers. Both have the defensive identity to grind out playoff wins, and a 33/1 ticket on Minnesota to win the West is an enticing hedge against the Thunder/Spurs dominance.

You can track all the real-time shifts as the Play-In Tournament unfolds here.

James Murphy
James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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