Second Democratic Primary 2020 Debate Betting Odds

by James Murphy in Politics  / July 29, 2019

  • The second Democratic Primary Debate will be held on July 30 and 31 at the Fox Theatre in Detroit, Michigan.
  • The candidate roster is so large the debate has been split into two nights.
  • The third debate will be held on September 12 and 13 in Houston, Texas.

Could the Democratic Primary Debates be any more cumbersome? There are twenty candidates debating over two nights for the second debate and that doesn’t include several other candidates who *wanted* to be included but didn’t make ‘the cut’.

For those of you scoring at home, the candidates that missed ‘the cut’ are Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam, Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton, and former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel won’t be able to participate in this debate. Two candidates that announced their candidacies within the past month were also out of luck– former Pennsylvania congressman Joe Sestak and philanthropist Tom Steyer. The ‘cut’ criteria is as follows: to be included in the debate a candidate must show at least 1% support in three independent state and national polls as determined by the Democratic National Committee and/or receive at least 65,000 unique donations including at least 200 from 20 different states.

Presumably, the idea is to keep out the ‘marginal candidates’. If so, it’s not working because the stage is full of ‘marginal candidates’. While a number will most likely throw in the towel before the third debate on September 12 and 13 if they don’t they’ll have to meet even more stringent criteria for inclusion:

A candidate will need to either have at least 2 percent support in three qualifying polls, AND provide evidence of at least 130,000 individual donations from a minimum of 400 different donors in at least 20 states.

Here’s the list of candidates scheduled by night:

TUESDAY JULY 30 (NIGHT ONE)

Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Pete Buttigieg
Beto O’Rourke
Amy Klobuchar
John Hickenlooper
Tim Ryan
John Delaney
Marianne Williamson
Steve Bullock

WEDNESDAY, JULY 31 (NIGHT TWO)

Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Andrew Yang
Julián Castro
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Jay Inslee
Michael Bennet
Bill de Blasio

SECOND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY 2020 DEBATE BETTING ODDS

BIGGEST POLLING PERCENTAGE INCREASE FROM SECOND DEBATE?

Kamala Harris(11.8)                                   +350
Pete Buttigieg(5.0) +500
Joe Biden(29.3) +750
Andrew Yang(2.0) +750
Bernie Sanders(15.0) +1000
Elizabeth Warren(14.5) +1000
Beto O'Rourke(2.7) +1500
Steve Bullock(0.7) +1500
Cory Booker(1.7) +1500
Amy Klobuchar(1.3) +2500
Julián Castro(1.0) +2500
Kirsten Gillibrand(0.5) +2500
Marianne Williamson(0.3) +2500
Tulsi Gabbard(1.0) +2500
Michael Bennet(0.3) +5000
John Hickenlooper(0.5) +5000
Tim Ryan(0.3) +5000
John Delaney(0.7) +5000
Bill de Blasio(0.7) +5000

Increase in polling percentage on RCP Poll Average at Real Clear Politics as of 12:01 AM Eastern Time on Friday, August 2 from the same poll on Monday, July 29. Only candidates listed at the above website are eligible for this wager. Number in parenthesis is candidate polling percentage as of Monday, July 29.

BIGGEST POLLING PERCENTAGE DECLINE FROM SECOND DEBATE?

Elizabeth Warren(14.5)                                +350
Bernie Sanders(15.0) +350
Joe Biden(29.3) +500
Kamala Harris(11.8) +500
Pete Buttigieg(5.0) +750
Beto O'Rourke(2.7) +1500
Andrew Yang(2.0) +1500
Amy Klobuchar(1.3) +2500
Julián Castro(1.0) +2500
Tulsi Gabbard(1.0) +2500
Steve Bullock(0.7) +5000
Cory Booker(1.7) +5000
Kirsten Gillibrand(0.5) +5000
Marianne Williamson(0.3) +5000
Michael Bennet(0.3) +5000
John Hickenlooper(0.5) +5000
Tim Ryan(0.3) +5000
John Delaney(0.7) +5000
Bill de Blasio(0.7) +5000

Decrease in polling percentage on RCP Poll Average at Real Clear Politics as of 12:01 AM Eastern Time on Friday, August 2 from the same poll on Monday, July 29. Only candidates listed at the above website are eligible for this wager. Number in parenthesis is candidate polling percentage as of Monday, July 29.

NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES AT OR ABOVE 5% POLLING AFTER SECOND DEBATE?

Over 4.5                                               -130
Under 4.5 +110

RCP Poll Average at Real Clear Politics as of 12:01 AM Eastern Time on Friday, August 2.

NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES TO DROP OUT OF RACE BY AUGUST 15?

Over 5.5                                               -150
Under 5.5 +130

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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