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Democratic Presidential Nomination Odds After ‘Super Tuesday’

James Murphy by in Politics on
  • Joe Biden has taken control of the race for the Democratic nomination after a dominant performance on ‘Super Tuesday’.
  • Biden will be facing a smaller field of opponents going forward.
  • The Democratic National Convention begins on Monday, July 13 in Milwaukee, WI.

Well, that happened quickly. After months of far fetched scenarios coming out of the US political media involving brokered conventions, chaotic negotiations and the prospect that Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama or even Oprah entering the fray to save the day it looks as if we’ve got a presumptive challenger for President Donald Trump. With a dominating performance on ‘Super Tuesday’ former VP Joe Biden has shot to the top of the Democratic nomination hit parade. This was inevitable–or at least it was were the Democrats to have any shot of winning the White House in November.

Even when Biden’s campaign was floundering the ‘writing on the wall’ was readily apparent. In a field full of billionaires with money to burn, economic deniers and fringe candidates who probably wouldn’t be recognized by their own constituents Biden was the only actual adult politician of the bunch. This is what I said when I was a guest on the FOX NEWS show What Are The Odds in early December. Host Kristen Soltis Anderson questioned my logic given the moribund state of Biden’s campaign at the time and the surge in popularity of Sanders, Warren and others. I explained that sometimes political experts focus on what might be the more appealing narrative. Oddsmakers, on the other hand, deal in cold, hard reality.

Biden definitely had plenty of help from his friends. Barack Obama has been trying to play both sides of the fence and hasn’t publicly endorsed his VP for some inexplicable reason. Behind the scenes, however, a bit of arm twisting from Obama and other cogs in the ‘Democratic Machine’ helped clear the field for Biden by ‘convincing’ Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg to withdraw from the race after the South Carolina Primary. Buttigieg was definitely the more engaging candidate of the two and in many ways was the surprise of the campaign. A refreshingly intelligent and articulate voice he was a profound contrast to the countless pretenders and geriatric loons in the field. Oddly enough, it wasn’t Buttigieg’s status as the first openly gay candidate that was his undoing as much as it was his tough to pronounce last name. Think about it–name one President or for that matter party Presidential nominee with a tough to pronounce name. Sure, it’s a silly reason for an otherwise sharp and capable guy to not be competitive but never forget that politics is a silly endeavor to begin with.

Biden went into ‘Super Tuesday’ as the only choice for any Democrat who didn’t want to nominate an economic denier like Sanders and Warren or a generally repellent person in Bloomberg. By all appearances, he’s delivered a knockout blow to all three. The salient question now is how long the remaining candidates will stay in the race. Bloomberg has already withdrawn understanding the reality of the situation and that it wasn’t worth spending more money on a losing cause. Sanders and Warren lack the ability to make this type of objective decision. Both are tactically tone deaf shameless self promoters that seriously have nothing better to do than prolong the inevitable.

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION ODDS AFTER SUPER TUESDAY

ODDS TO WIN THE 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINATION

Joe Biden                              -750
Bernie Sanders                         +400
Elizabeth Warren                       +1000
Tulsi Gabbard                          +2000
Any Other Candidate                    +5000

ODDS TO WIN THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Donald Trump                           -170
Not Donald Trump                       +150

WILL THERE BE A BROKERED DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION?

Yes                                    +600
No                                     -750

A brokered convention is defined as needing more than one ballot of the presidential roll call determine the nominee for president.

WILL THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION BE CANCELLED, POSTPONED OR MOVED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS FEARS?

Yes                                    +750
No                                     -1500

WILL ELIZABETH WARREN WITHDRAW FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY 12:01 AM EASTERN ON SATURDAY, MARCH 7?

Yes                                    -150
No                                     +130

WILL BERNIE SANDERS WITHDRAW FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY 12:01 AM EASTERN ON SATURDAY, MARCH 7?

Yes                                    +750
No                                     -1500

WILL TULSI GABBARD WITHDRAW FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY 12:01 AM EASTERN ON SATURDAY, MARCH 7?

Yes                                    +180
No                                     -210

NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AS OF 12:01 AM ON APRIL 1, 2020?

Over 1.5                               -750
Under 1.5                              +600

NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AS OF 12:01 AM ON APRIL 1, 2020?

Over 2.5                               +300
Under 2.5                              -350

NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AS OF 12:01 AM ON APRIL 1, 2020?

Over 2.5                               +750
Under 2.5                              -1500

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