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Updated Democratic Presidential Nomination Odds After Elizabeth Warren Withdrawal

James Murphy by in Politics on
  • Joe Biden has taken control of the race for the Democratic nomination after a dominant performance on ‘Super Tuesday’.
  • Biden will be facing a smaller field of opponents going forward.
  • The Democratic National Convention begins on Monday, July 13 in Milwaukee, WI.

The Democratic Presidential nominee race is down to three candidates. It’ll most likely be down to two candidates before the end of the month. Tulsi Gabbard is well off the pace and isn’t getting any help from the Democratic party machine who is doing everything possible to further marginalize her campaign. This includes keeping her out of the Sunday, March 15 debate. Think you might want to have a non-white woman who is a legit veteran on stage just for appearances? Not the Democratic Party who is happy just to showcase their two old white men Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Although the mainstream media is propping up Sanders by pretending the race is still competitive it is somewhat amazing that the Democratic Party–presumably in the business of winning elections–is playing along.

The reality is that Joe Biden will be the Democratic Party nominee. It’s not that Biden is a great candidate but he is the best candidate at their disposal. That’s because they know that a Sanders nomination is a de facto Donald Trump re-election victory. The best thing that the Democrats can do now is to shut down Sanders as soon as possible. The greater the extent to which they distance the party from Sanders, the better their chances of winning the White House in November. And they need all the help they can get.

Instead, they’ll continue to mollify Sanders presumably due to the fear of alienating his weakening base of support. The best move for the Democrats? Don’t worry about them. The youth vote didn’t even show up for Sanders on Super Tuesday–they’re not going to show up for Biden no matter how much the Democratic party panders to Bernie. Now, maybe a one on one Bernie v. Biden debate has an upside–it potentially allows Biden to further position himself as a moderate. The downside risk is that Biden comes out looking weaker after Sanders shouts insults at him uninterrupted.

The Democrats need to now have a laser like focus on beating Trump. Bernie Sanders would have no problem throwing the Democratic Party under the bus were it to his benefit. The sooner they put an end to the Bernie Sanders show the better their prospects for establishing Biden as a strong candidate. This is crucial if they’re to have a chance at regaining the White House. Continuing to accommodate Sanders hurts the party’s reelection efforts and helps no one except Bernie himself.

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION ODDS AFTER ELIZABETH WARREN WITHDRAWAL

ODDS TO WIN THE 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINATION

Joe Biden                              -900
Bernie Sanders                         +400
Tulsi Gabbard                          +2500
Any Other Candidate                    +5000

ODDS TO WIN THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Donald Trump                           -170
Not Donald Trump                       +150

WILL THERE BE A BROKERED DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION?

Yes                                    +750
No                                     -1500

A brokered convention is defined as needing more than one ballot of the presidential roll call determine the nominee for president.

WILL THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION BE CANCELLED, POSTPONED OR MOVED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS FEARS?

Yes                                    +750
No                                     -1500

WILL BERNIE SANDERS WITHDRAW FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY 12:01 AM EASTERN ON SATURDAY, MARCH 14?

Yes                                    +750
No                                     -1500

WILL TULSI GABBARD WITHDRAW FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY 12:01 AM EASTERN ON SATURDAY, MARCH 14?

Yes                                    -250
No                                     +210

NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AS OF 12:01 AM ON APRIL 1, 2020?

Over 1.5                               -750
Under 1.5                              +600

NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AS OF 12:01 AM ON APRIL 1, 2020?

Over 2.5                               +350
Under 2.5                              -700

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