- The Trump incited riot at the US Capitol has hurt his standing within the Republican Party and his future electoral chances.
- Trump and several others complicit in the insurrection have seen their odds of winning the 2024 Presidential election drop substantially.
- Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the current favorites to win the White House in 2024 just ahead of Trump’s VP Mike Pence.
The assault on the US Capitol by a mob of pro-Trump rioters in an effort to disrupt the certification of Presidential voting results was unprecedented and shocking. It also might have torpedoed any hope that Donald Trump might have of returning to the White House in 2024. Were there not only 10 days left in his term there’s a good chance he would be impeached or otherwise removed from office. At any rate, his standing within his own party has been irreparably damaged and politicians who aided and abetted his incitement of the rioters like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley are also being marginalized.
While most Republicans in Congress reacted to the riot with appropriate disgust, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley continued to beat the dead horse that started it–the false claim by Trump that the 2020 election was somehow ‘stolen’ despite copious evidence to the contrary. Hawley might have suffered a mortal wound to his own political career in the process. Once seen as a ‘rising star’ in the early days of the Trump presidency he’s now being described as a ‘pariah among Senate Republicans’. Here’s how the Wall Street Journal described the mood of his colleagues:
Now he has become a pariah among Senate Republicans, many of whom blame him for what they see as his role instigating a riot that overwhelmed the Capitol and resulted in the deaths of five people, including a Capitol Police officer.
Hawley has halfheartedly condemned the rioters but continues to flog Trump’s discredited ‘we wuz robbed’ storyline:
“I will never apologize for giving voice to the millions of Missourians and Americans who have concerns about the integrity of our elections. That’s my job, and I will keep doing it.”
To a lesser extent, Ted Cruz has also tarnished his standing within the party though it’s unclear if the riot made it worse or if that damage had already been done. Trump and his son, Donald Trump, Jr. were the big losers from a political perspective. The Trumps have gone from being ‘polarizing’ to being ‘unfit to govern’ within the span of a few weeks. Even the Republicans are clearly happy to be done with Trump, particularly after his constant bellyaching about non-existent conspiracies to deny him an election victory.
Trump’s behavior on Twitter has always been obnoxious but since the elections they’ve been the ravings of a lunatic. Twitter finally had enough after the Capitol riots and gave him the long overdue boot. BetOnline.ag offers these odds on Trump’s prospects of returning to the social media platform anytime soon:
DONALD TRUMP SR. REINSTATED ON TWITTER BEFORE 1/20/21?
NO -4000 YES +1000
Trump Sr. has dropped down the odds board to win the 2024 Presidential Election. In the updated Presidential odds at BetOnline.ag, Trump has dropped to +2500, down from +1200 before the riot. Trump Jr. has dropped from +2500 to +5000. Josh Hawley’s has dropped from +2000 to +4000 and Ted Cruz has gone from +6600 to +12500.
The aforementioned quartet has also seen their odds to win the Republican nomination drop. Trump Sr. is now a +1200 choice to win the nomination, down from +600 pre-riot. Trump Jr. has gone from +1200 to +2500, Hawley from +1000 to +2000 and Cruz from +3300 to +6600.