Two downright awful teams go at it this Sunday in South Florida as the 0-4 SU/ATS Miami Dolphins take on the 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS Washington Redskins. The Redskins have a -78 point differential on the season, the Dolphins have a -137 differential. No other team in the league is within 16 points of either dubious margin. Washington has the #28 total offense in the NFL, Miami has the #31 total offense. Washington has the #26 passing offense, Miami has the #31 passing offense. Redskins are #27 in rushing yards per game, Miami is dead last. Washington has the #30 scoring offense putting up an average of 14.6 PPG, Miami is dead last scoring a pitiful 6.5 PPG.
Miami has the worst total defense in football allowing 472 yards per game, Washington is #28 allowing 407.8 yards per game. Dolphins are #31 in passing defense (296.3 YPG) while Washington is #23 giving up 263.8 yards per game. Miami is dead last at rushing defense (175.8 YPG) while Washington is #28 (144 yards per game). Scoring defense is where both teams are really awful. Washington is #30 in the league allowing 30.2 PPG against. Miami is dead last allowing 10.4 more points per game against (40.8) than the #31 Atlanta Falcons.
There’s a conventional wisdom in sports betting that teams turn in a big effort in their first game under a new head coach. In my view, however, that concept doesn’t apply to teams that are complete dumpster fires like Washington. Bill Callahan is the interim head coach and with little to no chance that he’ll be in the running for the full time replacement gig he’s little more than a caretaker. Owner Dan Snyder is looking for a bigger name to take over his team and no doubt that whomever he hires will want to bring in their own assistants. In a couple of months, Callahan will be in the same boat as former head coach Jay Gruden. Callahan hasn’t been a head coach in the NFL in 15 years. He’s not a bad coach, but even he admits that he’s at the ‘tail end of his career’.
The dynamic is a bit different in Miami where the team was clearly in ‘tank’ mode before the first regular season game. Former Bill Belichick assistant Brian Flores has more time to get things turned around and isn’t under any pressure to do much of anything this season. Even so, no team–and no coach–wants to join the short list of winless NFL teams. This is the Dolphins best chance–and possibly their only legitimate chance–to win a game this season. They’ve had extra preparation time and are coming off a bye week. Washington had a tough home game against New England last weekend and dealt with the coaching upheaval all last week.
There’s not much to like about either team but from a situational standpoint the Dolphins off a bye with two weeks to prepare against a new head coach who hasn’t had time to start to straighten out the mess is too good to pass up. Making it all the better, we’re getting more than a FG.