- As of July 15, 2023 there are six Major League Baseball (MLB) teams that have earned double digit profits for their ‘financial backers’.
- Eight teams have *lost* double digit units for baseball bettors.
- Understanding ‘profit and loss’ in a moneyline sport like baseball is essential to finding out which teams are overvalued and undervalued.
Most sports bettors understand the concept of a pointspread as well as knowing that teams that win a lot of games don’t necessarily perform well ‘against the number’. What is less well understood is that a similar dichotomy exists in a moneyline sport such as Major League Baseball (MLB). The use of the moneyline combined with the myriad of statistics available to the baseball handicapper creates an abundance of profitable betting concepts. Most of these are based on the concept of certain teams being overvalued or undervalued and to understand this you have to keep track of the ‘profit and loss’ during the MLB season.
In baseball, it’s not always the teams at the top of the standings that make money and the teams at the bottom that lose money. Winning teams are frequently overvalued and they’ll just tread water near breakeven or even lose money despite a record well above .500. Bad teams experience the opposite phenomenon—they’re undervalued and since they’re available at higher prices they can make a profit even with sub .500 record. This dynamic is often lost on the ‘recreational’ baseball player but is well known among ‘sharp’ handicappers.
I’ve always considered the use of profit/loss analysis as the fundamental component of baseball handicapping. It is a good way to understand the tendencies of each team as well as determining which teams are ‘overvalued’ or ‘undervalued’. As every experienced handicapper knows ‘finding value’ is the true goal of a successful sports bettor. What’s great about baseball is that this concept applies not only to teams but to starting pitchers. In addition, there are a variety of situational breakdowns we can look at to examine ‘profit and loss’ on a more granular level.
In this article, we’ll look at the Major League Baseball teams that have been the most profitable for bettors through July 15, 2023. In a subsequent article, we’ll look at the biggest money losers in baseball.
MOST PROFITABLE MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL TEAMS
BALTIMORE ORIOLES +21.3 UNITS
The ‘perfect storm’ for moneyline profitability is for a team to have minimal expectations heading into a season and exceed them. The Baltimore Orioles have done that in two years running. In 2021, they were abysmal going 52-100 losing -30 units. Last year, they showed marked improvement finishing over .500 (83-79) and leading the majors in profitability with +27.9 units. This season they’re giving the Tampa Bay Rays all they can handle in the AL East and are playing .611 baseball with a 55-35 record. That’s good for +21.3 units of profit. With the Rays swooning (3-7 L10) the O’s and the Toronto Blue Jays are trying to make up ground. Both teams have won 7 of 10.
ATLANTA BRAVES +19 UNITS
The Atlanta Braves have always been a franchise known for consistency. That’s also true at the betting window where they’re going for their sixth straight profitable season. It’s not like the Braves are sneaking up on anybody with the best record in baseball (61-29) but .678 winning percentage will keep the bankroll flush. We’ll do a deep dive into situational profit/loss in a few days but Atlanta is making money at home, on the road and against both lefthanders and righthanders.
CINCINNATI REDS +18.9 UNITS
The Cincinnati Reds were absolutely worthless last season–for fans *and* bettors. They finished with a record of 62-100 losing -19.8 units for their financial backers. But something funny happens when a team starts to play hard and exert a solid effort day in and day out. The Reds are the biggest reclamation story of the season–even more so than the Orioles. They’re currently tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead (50-42) and have turned a hefty profit. They’ve made a small profit at home but they’ve been exceptional on the road (+14.5 units). Are the Reds for real or are the ‘doing it with mirrors’? Stay tuned….
HONORABLE MENTION: MIAMI MARLINS +15.1 UNITS, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +14.6 UNITS, TAMPA BAY RAYS +11.1 UNITS
