‘Survivor: Edge of Extinction’ Episode 3 Betting Odds

by James Murphy in Entertainment  / March 4, 2019

Two episodes of Survivor: Edge of Extinction are in the books and we’ve got two contestants eliminated. Well, not really. The two contestants that were voted out at Tribal Council in the first two episodes aren’t technically ‘eliminated’–they’re on Extinction Island and have a chance to return to the game under as of yet unspecified circumstances. That’s the big twist this season and according to Survivor cognoscenti Extinction Island is a reboot of a concept that was proposed for Survivor Season 30. More about that in a moment….

Here’s how the gimmick works: players that are voted out at Tribal Council have a choice of packing up and heading home or they can go to Extinction Island. Here’s what happens there:

Now I shall sing the second kingdom
there where the soul of man is cleansed,
made worthy to ascend to Heaven.

Here from the dead let poetry rise up,
O sacred Muses, since I am yours.
Here let Calliope arise...

Just kidding. That’s from Canto II of Dante’s Inferno. Actually, that’s pretty much what happens on Extinction Island only instead of ascending into Heaven the contestants hope to find a way back into the competition proper. Here’s how Reality Blurred described it when the season was first announced:

“Instead of Redemption Island’s competitions, eliminated players will have the opportunity to exit the game or go to the Island of Extinction, where they can wait for a future opportunity to return to the game. They’ll all stay there together.”

Part of the gimmick is that players do little more than just wait around and try to survive. None of the contests and hi-jinx the rest of the contestants are enjoying. It’s more Robinson Crusoe and less Gilligan’s Island. Once on Extinction Island the players can tap out at any point by raising a white sail. The island itself is basically a desolate beach. When Reem Daly was voted out in Week 1 her comments upon arrival at Extinction Island were as follows:

“Oh my God, there’s nothing here! What is going on? Holy crap, what is this?”

Much like the late, great Telly Savalas I’m an ‘A Lister’ who obviously expects VIP treatment but that’s a bit hyperbolic for a desolate beach in Fiji. To be fair, I have uttered Reem Daly’s exact words when I find that a hotel I’m staying at doesn’t have 24 hour room service but she might have been over-hyping the desolation just a bit with her comments. Being able to chill on a deserted beach in Fiji doesn’t sound bad at all. The tough part–at least for a Survivor contestant–is the tedium and lack of structure. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once Extinction Island gets a few more inhabitants.

Before we get to the odds for episode 3 of Survivor: Edge of Extinction a quick procedural note. At least for the time being, the players on Extinction Island aren’t being considered for the prop bets below unless specifically noted otherwise. When a contestant gets to return to the ‘main island’ I’ll work them back into the relevant odds. I can’t think of any other way to handle it. There’s plenty of fans that think that the aforementioned Reem Daly will return and unleash her revenge en route to victory but until the show provides some parameters for return there’s no way to price it. She’ll soon have company–Keith Sowell was voted out in Episode 2. In an interview with Hollywood Reporter he said that his game strategy is to ‘base every decision off of God’ which certainly ranks below ‘a good parking spot’ as a reason to invoke intervention from the divine.

Additionally, the denizens of Extinction Island won’t be considered for any of the other props like ‘Will a player cry?’ or ‘Will a player be pixelated due to nudity?’ I will likely revisit this policy at some point should a thriving community develop on Extinction Island which is clearly what the producers are hoping for.

‘SURVIVOR: EDGE OF EXTINCTION’ BETTING ODDS

TO WIN ‘SURVIVOR: EDGE OF EXTINCTION’

David Wright                           +500                            
Eric Hafemann +500
Aubry Bracco +650
Lauren O’Connell +750
Kelley Wentworth +750
Joe Anglim +950
Chris Underwood +950
Victoria Baamonde +1150
Julie Rosenberg +1150
Julia Carter +2000
Ron Clark +2000
Gavin Whitson +2000
Dan Wardog Desilva +3500
Rick Devens +3500
Aurora McCreary +3500
Wendy Diaz +3500

‘SURVIVOR: EDGE OF EXTINCTION’ EPISODE 3 BETTING ODDS

TO BE VOTED OUT AT TRIBAL COUNCIL IN EPISODE 3?

Wendy Diaz                             +250
Lauren O’Connell +500
Rick Devens +750
David Wright +750
Aubry Bracco +1000
Aurora McCreary +1000
Kelley Wentworth +1000
Chris Underwood +2500
Joe Anglim +2500
Eric Hafemann +2500
Victoria Baamonde +2500
Julia Carter +2500
Ron Clark +2500
Gavin Whitson +2500
Dan Wardog Desilva +2500
Julie Rosenberg +2500
No One Voted Out in Episode 3 +2500

WHO WILL WIN IMMUNITY IN EPISODE 3?

Kama Tribe                             -250
Manu Tribe  +210
No One Wins Immunity in Episode 3  +1000

WHO WILL WIN REWARD IN EPISODE 3?

Kama Tribe                             -250
Manu Tribe  +210
No One Wins Reward in Episode 3   +1000

WILL A HIDDEN IDOL BE PLAYED IN EPISODE 3?

Yes                                     +600
No  -750

WILL ANY CONTESTANT QUIT/BE REMOVED FROM ISLAND DUE TO INJURY IN EPISODE 3?

Yes                                     +750
No -1500

WILL ANY CONTESTANT CRY ON CAMERA DURING EPISODE 3?

Yes                                     +600
No -750

WILL THE EPISODE 3 VOTED OUT CASTAWAY ACCEPT THE EXTINCTION OFFER?

Yes                                     -350
No  +300

WILL A CONTESTANT BE ‘PIXELATED’ DUE TO NUDITY IN EPISODE 3?

Yes                                     +210
No  -250

GENDER IDENTITY OF NEXT CONTESTANT PIXELATED DUE TO NUDITY?

Female                                   -350
Male +300

NEXT CONTESTANT TO BE PIXELATED DUE TO NUDITY?

Victoria Baamonde                        +350
Kelley Wentworth +500
Joe Anglim +500
Eric Hafemann +750
Aurora McCreary +750
Lauren O’Connell +1000
Aubry Bracco +1000
Julie Rosenberg +1500
Dan Wardog Desilva +1500
Gavin Whitson +1500
Chris Underwood +2500
Wendy Diaz +2500
David Wright +2500
Rick Devens +5000
Ron Clark +5000
Julia Carter +5000

In the previous three propositions pixelation must be due to accidental or intentional nudity and not due to obscene gestures or any other reason. If there is no pixelation due to nudity this season the previous two propositions will be graded ‘no action’.

EPISODE 3 KEY DEMO (18-49) RATINGS

Over 1.45                                 -150
Under 1.45 +130

EPISODE 3 KEY DEMO (18-49) SHARE

Over 6.5                                 -250
Under 6.5 +210

EPISODE 3 TOTAL VIEWERSHIP

Over 7.05 Million                         -180
Under 7.05 Million +150

The previous three TV ratings propositions will be graded using data reported at TV By The Numbers.

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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