‘Captain Marvel’ Movie Betting Odds

by James Murphy in Entertainment  / March 4, 2019

  • ‘Captain Marvel’ is the first Marvel Cinematic Universe film with a female lead.
  • ‘Captain Marvel’ is directed by Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck and stars Brie Larson.
  • ‘Captain Marvel’ opens March 8, 2019.

The big expected blockbuster movie opening this weekend is the latest entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (cool kids refer to it simply as ‘MCU’) entitled Captain Marvel. Brie Larson stars as the eponymously named protagonist along with a cast that includes Jude Law, Annette Benning, Samuel L. Jackson and Clark Gregg. Here’s the plot description at Metacritic:

Set in the 1990s, Marvel Studios’ Captain Marvel is an all-new adventure from a previously unseen period in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe that follows the journey of Carol Danvers as she becomes one of the universe’s most powerful heroes. While a galactic war between two alien races reaches Earth, Danvers finds herself and a small cadre of allies at the center of the maelstrom.

Interestingly, the secret identity of DC Comics diva Supergirl is ‘Linda Danvers’ but it’s doubtful that there’s any relation. Captain Marvel is among other things a film expected to bridge the narrative gap between 2018’s huge blockbuster Avengers: Infinity War and the forthcoming (release date April 26) Avengers: Endgame. This was made all the more obvious by the post credits footage in Avengers: Infinity War that obliquely makes reference to the Captain Marvel film.

Every indication is that Captain Marvel is going to be huge and metrics such as ‘trailer impact’ are all pointing to a movie that audiences will enjoy. The ‘trailer impact’ score is just marginally less than that of Avengers: Endgame. The theater ticketing website Fandango is reporting that presales for Captain Marvel are very strong and rank as the third highest in ‘MCU’ history behind Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther.  The sum total of this and other data suggests a massive domestic opening weekend and assuming that audience like Captain Marvel as much as the pre release metrics indicate that it could make a ton of money. It’s not just a United States phenomenon–the film is tracking very well internationally and could end up being the biggest MCU release ever in China.

Not everyone is thrilled about the prospects of Captain Marvel becoming a huge hit. For some reason, misogynist online trolls are threatened by the fact that Captain Marvel features a female lead. It would seem that their beef would be with Marvel Comics–the Carol Danvers character dates back to the late 1960’s and her status as a superhero dates back to the mid 1970’s as ‘Ms. Marvel’. She was at one point saved by the super hero formerly known as ‘Captain Marvel’ (Dr. Walter Lawson) back ‘in the day’. Although she existed as ‘Ms. Marvel’ for several decades and was known as ‘Warbird’ for a time she adopted the ‘Captain Marvel’ gloss in 2012. I’d explain exactly how it happen but it would take forever for me to write–it involves alternate realities, crossovers, amnesia, power loss and countless other plot devices common to the comics genre. If you’re really interested you can find it online including a fairly exhaustive Wikipedia entry on ‘Carol Danvers’.

Anyway, back to the misogynist trolls….they apparently have their skid-marked BVD’s in a wad over this film and have been doing anything they can to undermine its chances of success. This practice has led to Rotten Tomatoes changing some of their scoring policies just in time for the Captain Marvel release. Here’s an explanation from the comic book thought leaders at The Atlantic:

Captain Marvel hasn’t hit theaters, yet it garnered a dismal audience score of 54 percent—far below the totals for other recent Marvel movies. The poor grade is the result of “review bombing,” a practice that’s also widespread in the highly charged world of video gaming. Different groups organize campaigns to drag down the audience rating for a film (or a game) in response to a particular controversy, sometimes for sexist or racist reasons. Many culture writers noted that Captain Marvel, in particular, was likely being targeted for featuring a female hero. It’s become common to see online backlashes to female-led blockbusters—most notoriously with the 2016 iteration of Ghostbusters, but also with films such as Ocean’s 8 and even projects that never exited development. In the case of Captain Marvel, many online commenters seemed upset by Larson’s forthright remarks in interviews about how she hopes to increase diversity in the blockbuster world.

Worth pointing out that regardless of the ‘online backlash’ to the all female reboots of Ghostbusters and Ocean’s 8 that those films both sucked to the point that they were simply an insult to the legacy of the source material. Maybe the producers rationalized the legitimate and deserved hatred of these films as a ‘sexist backlash’. Captain Marvel is different since the character of Carol Danvers is lifted directly from the Marvel Comics Universe and isn’t a lame reboot that offers nothing other than female leads. Sure, the storyline that got her from her origin to Ms. Marvel to Warbird to Captain Marvel (she was also known as ‘Binary’ for a time. Don’t ask) is convoluted but it’s far from the only inexplicable narrative found in the comics universe. Comic book fans like it that way.

Rotten Tomatoes recently announced policy changes to combat review bombing including not allowing fans to weigh in on films until they’re actually released. This seems only fair that ersatz critics nominally have the chance to see what they’re reviewing but there was some whining by the perpetually offended that this is tantamount to ‘censorship’. If you weren’t already aware you’d be *very* surprised at how common it is to critically savage books, video games, movies, etc. without actually knowing anything about them let alone seeing/reading/playing them.

For the most part, the angry misogynist crowd going after Captain Marvel is a fringe group on the level of ‘flat earth’ zealots. James Woods seems to be angry about something related to this film but he’s fallen into the ranks of the ‘perpetually offended’, Right Wing version. I also read an article suggesting that the film is being ‘set up to fail’ though the rationale for this lost me. The point that a potential audience for a film can be impacted by earlier/subsequent releases or other factors ‘beyond the control’ of producers is a valid one. Were this valid here I’d think that one of the many experts in the film industry in general and box office analysis in particular would have pointed it out.

With all of this in mind, here are the official SPORTS INSIDER betting odds for the Captain Marvel movie.

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ MOVIE BETTING ODDS

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ OPENING WEEKEND DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $155 million(USD)                          -180                            
Under $155 million(USD) +150

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ DOMESTIC TOTAL GROSS BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $455 million(USD)                          -130                            
Under $455 million(USD) +110

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ OPENING WEEKEND OVERSEAS BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $145 million(USD)                          -150                            
Under $145 million(USD) +130

WILL ‘CAPTAIN MARVEL‘ EARN $1 BILLION TOTAL GLOBAL BOX OFFICE REVENUE BY 12/31/19?

Yes                                             +150                            
No -180

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ OPENING WEEKEND CHINA BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $91 million(USD)                           -150                            
Under $91 million(USD)  +130

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ BOX OFFICE REVENUE MATCHUPS

WHICH FILM WILL HAVE A BIGGER DOMESTIC OPENING WEEKEND?

'Wonder Woman' (2017)                            +600                            
'Captain Marvel' (2019) -750

‘Wonder Woman’ opening weekend domestic revenue was $103,251,471 per Box Office Mojo.

WHICH FILM WILL HAVE A BIGGER DOMESTIC OPENING WEEKEND?

'The Hunger Games' (2012)                        +180                            
'Captain Marvel' (2019) -210

‘The Hunger Games’ opening weekend domestic revenue was $152,535,747 per Box Office Mojo.

WHICH FILM WILL HAVE A BIGGER DOMESTIC OPENING WEEKEND?

'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' (2016)      -130                            
'Captain Marvel' (2019)   +110

‘Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice’ opening weekend domestic revenue was $166,007,347 per Box Office Mojo.

WHICH FILM WILL HAVE A BIGGER DOMESTIC OPENING WEEKEND?

'Beauty and the Beast' (2017)                    -250                            
'Captain Marvel' (2019)   +210

‘Beauty and the Beast’ opening weekend domestic revenue was $174,750,616 per Box Office Mojo.

WHICH FILM WILL HAVE A BIGGER DOMESTIC OPENING WEEKEND?

'Shazam' (2019) + $100 million USD               -150                            
'Captain Marvel' (2019)   +130

‘Shazam’ will open nationally on April 6, 2019.

WHICH FILM WILL HAVE A HIGHER DOMESTIC TOTAL GROSS AS OF 12/31/19?

'Wonder Woman' (2017)                            +350                            
'Captain Marvel' (2019) -500

‘Wonder Woman’ total domestic gross revenue is $412,563,408 per Box Office Mojo.

WHICH FILM WILL HAVE A HIGHER DOMESTIC TOTAL GROSS AS OF 12/31/19?

'Avengers: Age of Ultron' (2015)                 +110                            
'Captain Marvel' (2019)   -130

‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ domestic total gross is $459,005,868 per Box Office Mojo.

WHICH FILM WILL HAVE A HIGHER DOMESTIC TOTAL GROSS AS OF 12/31/19?

'The Dark Knight Rises' (2012)                   +150                            
'Captain Marvel' (2019) -180

‘The Dark Knight Rises’ domestic total gross is $448,139,099 per Box Office Mojo.

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ REVIEW SCORE PROPOSITIONS

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ METASCORE AT 12:01 AM PACIFIC TIME ON 3/16/19?

Over 79.5                                         -210                           
Under 79.5 +180

‘Metascore’ as of 12:01 AM Pacific on 3/16/19 as posted at Metacritic.com

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ TOMATOMETER SCORE AT 12:01 AM PACIFIC TIME ON 3/16/19?

Over 84.5                                         -180                           
Under 84.5   +150

‘Tomatometer’ score as of 12:01 AM Pacific on 3/16/19 as posted at RottenTomatoes.com

‘CAPTAIN MARVEL’ AUDIENCE SCORE SCORE AT 12:01 AM PACIFIC TIME ON 3/16/19?

Over 71.5                                          -150                           
Under 71.5 +130

‘Audience Score’ score as of 12:01 AM Pacific on 3/16/19 as posted at RottenTomatoes.com

MOVIE BOX OFFICE 2019 GENERAL PROPOSITIONS

WILL ANY FILM RELEASED IN 2019 BECOME THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST GROSSING WORLDWIDE?

Yes                                                  +350                          
No   -500

Current all-time highest grossing film worldwide is ‘Avatar’ at $2,787,965,087. Data from Box Office Mojo will be used for grading.

WILL ANY FILM RELEASED IN 2019 HAVE WORLDWIDE GROSS REVENUES IN EXCESS OF $1 BILLION USD?

Yes                                                  -2500                          
No   +1250

Data from Box Office Mojo will be used for grading.

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

As seen on