- The Los Angeles Rams will face the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on February 13.
- The Rams opened as a -3.5 or -4 point favorite on Sunday night. As of this writing, just about every sportsbook on the planet is dealing -4.5.
- The total on the game is at 48.5 all across the board after opening as high as 50.
A couple of times every year I get to use the word ‘stasis’. This is one of my favorite words and obviously I try to use it every chance I can. The word has several meanings but the one relevant to this discussion is from the Merriam Webster Dictionary:
a state of static balance or equilibrium
Yep, the consensus side and total price for Super Bowl LVI is a perfect example of stasis. This is usually what happens with the Super Bowl pointspread and total every year. The dynamic is somewhat different than it used to be when the only place that mattered was Nevada but the timing of line movement is basically the same. You’ll get a few big bets at the opening price immediately after it goes up. Sometimes this is ‘sharp’ money but it’s usually at least ‘semi-sharp’ money since the ‘public’ doesn’t worry about getting a good price. This is particularly true for the Super Bowl with so many completely recreational players in the market. After the first 24 or 48 hours the Super Bowl odds settle in and reach an almost universal consensus.
This year they’ve settled in good. As of this writing, the consensus line is Los Angeles -4.5 with the consensus total at 48.5. It’s been heading this way since it was posted on Sunday–here’s a recap of what we said in our first Super Bowl line update for this year:
The opening line for Super Bowl LVI was Los Angeles -4 with a few places in Nevada and elsewhere opening at 3.5. The game was quickly bet up as money came for the favorite. As of this writing (late Monday night) the Rams are a -4.5 favorite at most Nevada sportsbooks with the South Point and Stations showing -4. VSIN reported that the Westgate SuperBook opened the game with the Rams a -3.5 favorite and the total at 51. The total opened at 49, 49.5 or 50 depending on the book and money came for the ‘Under’. In Nevada, most books are now at 48.5 with Wynn and Stations at 49. In Colorado, you can find the game at -4.5 (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars) and -4 (Rivers, PointsBet, FanDuel). The total is at 48.5 just about everywhere in Colorado.
All of the sportsbooks listed above in Nevada and Colorado are now at the consensus price on side and total. All across the screen sportsbooks are dealing -4.5 and 48.5 as far as the eye can see. In Colorado, BetWidwood has the game at -4. In Colorado and Nevada, Circa Sports has the total at 49 OV -103 UN -117. WynnBET and theScore Bet in Colorado both have the game at -4. With these few exceptions, the consensus line prevails. It could stay like this for awhile. As far as the public, the overwhelming majority of betting will take place in the final days–if not final hours–before kickoff. That means the numbers could bounce around a lot prior to the game but until late next week it’ll probably stay where it is or thereabouts.
Another important thing to keep in mind: the pointspread might not be as important as it used to be since the majority of action on the Super Bowl will be on proposition wagers and live betting. This has been true for ‘sharps’ for a number of years now and thanks to the proliferation of sportsbook apps in the US the ‘squares’ are catching up. Of course, if ‘squares’ and ‘sharps’ are both keeping the rubber band on their bankroll for live betting–with the exception of proposition bets–it further erodes the perceived accuracy of the Super Bowl betting line.
If nothing else, this is another validation of the fact that the US recreational betting public is much ‘sharper’ than their predecessors. For much of the Super Bowl era, the line movement pattern was downright reflexive more often than not. The line would open late Sunday after the Conference Championships and money would show for the favorite. The enthusiasm of the wagering public for the ‘chalk’ side varied from year to year but you could at least expect a nominal move in that direction at the very worst. In many years, you’d see a move of several points before the sun came up on Monday morning. Once the ‘public’ had their say, the ‘sharps’ would respond and get down on the other side taking the points. At the risk of over-generalization, you didn’t see much in the way of bet timing by the recreational players until the past decade.