Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Total set at 44.5
The treatment of QB Jalen Hurts’ blood clot and the fallout from his situation have dominated NFL talk this week. As scary as that is for Hurts personally, the Eagles still have 11 games left.
Philadelphia moves forward with QB Tanner McKee under center, and this week they welcome the hated Dallas Cowboys to town for a primetime Monday Night Football showdown.
McKee should get additional help this week, with RB Saquon Barkley expected to return—a huge boost for the offense. Another positive for Philadelphia is that it faces a Cowboys defense that continues to look like one of the league’s worst units for the third straight year.
With the Dallas offense also struggling through a two-game losing streak, let us see what the advanced stats suggest for this NFC East rivalry game. Compare the latest lines for this matchup as you weigh the scoring outlook for this NFC East rivalry.
Dallas vs. Philadelphia Breakdown
Dallas Offense vs. Philadelphia Defense
Dallas Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.097 | -0.103 | -0.074 | 42.9% | 41.9% | 46.7% |
| Season | 0.109 | 0.170 | -0.041 | 48% | 49.6% | 44% |
Philadelphia Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.134 | 0.140 | 0.125 | 44.7% | 42.2% | 48.4% |
| Season | 0.067 | 0.134 | -0.033 | 44.7% | 46% | 42.7% |
Dallas has a potent offense that ranks 6th in expected points added per play and 5th in overall success rate this season. These strong rankings continue despite two consecutive down weeks in which the unit failed to reach 20 points.
Historical trends suggest this two-week slump is highly unusual for the team when QB Dak Prescott is playing. The Cowboys offense avoided back-to-back games with under 20 points for all of 2025, and it happened only twice two years ago, when Prescott was sidelined with an injury.
With Prescott knowing his unit needs to step up, this divisional matchup offers a solid spot to back a major offensive resurgence from the Cowboys.
Philadelphia’s struggling defense also appears ill-equipped to slow down a motivated Dallas attack. The Eagles have failed to live up to seasonal expectations, sitting a mediocre 25th in defensive expected points added per play.
Their struggles are widespread: they rank 24th or worse in five of the six major defensive statistics, with their best mark being 19th in dropback success rate.
A disastrous injury wave has severely depleted their depth, leaving this unit looking nothing like the championship defense from two years ago. Opponents have faced little resistance moving the ball down the field against Philadelphia. Outside of a single performance in London, where they allowed 19 points to Jacksonville, every other opponent has scored at least 20 points against the Eagles.
Dallas easily represents the most explosive and consistent offense the Eagles have faced all year, making a high-scoring output from the visitors very likely.
Philadelphia Offense vs. Dallas Defense
Philadelphia Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.116 | -0.110 | -0.139 | 39.1% | 39.2% | 38.5% |
| Season | -0.111 | -0.060 | -0.210 | 36.6% | 38.3% | 33.3% |
Dallas Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.033 | 0.126 | -0.157 | 38.4% | 42.9% | 29.2% |
| Season | 0.154 | 0.327 | -0.076 | 48.6% | 54.2% | 41.2% |
Losing QB Jalen Hurts for the rest of the season creates a massive obstacle for the Eagles, though the offense struggled to establish consistency even with him under center.
Philadelphia enters this matchup ranked 28th in expected points added per play and 31st in overall success rate, suggesting schematic issues to address alongside its injuries. Fortunately, RB Saquon Barkley is expected to return to the active rotation this week, providing a proven focal point for the game plan.
Backup QB Tanner McKee showed poise in his first start in nine months last week, utilizing limited weapons to guide the offense to a 23rd-place ranking in weekly expected points added per play and 19th in success rate. Those numbers might not sound great, but they’re better than where the Eagles sit in those categories for the season, so there’s reason to be encouraged about this offense.
Heck, with Hurts now gone, it basically erases all expectations bettors (and even the Eagles themselves) had about what the 2026 campaign would look like. With lower outside pressure, we could easily see this offense playing with a loose, aggressive style for these final 11 games. That approach is a great way to attack this vulnerable Dallas defense.
The Cowboys continue to field one of the league’s least effective defensive groups, ranking 31st in expected points added per play, 29th in overall success rate, and dead last in both dropback expected points added and dropback success rate.
While Dallas improved slightly last week by finishing 4th in weekly rush success rate, that performance was heavily skewed by facing the NFL’s worst ground game.
Dallas also climbed to 8th in overall success rate last week. Still, I don’t think any bettor should expect that level of defensive resistance, given this Cowboys defense’s history of futility over the past three years.
But that’s what you get when the front office intentionally uses most of the team’s financial resources to build an elite, high-scoring offense, creating a team built to win shootouts rather than lean on defensive stops.
Injuries and Roster Notes
Dallas Cowboys
- Cobie Durant – CB | Questionable
- DeMarvion Overshown – LB | Questionable
- Ameer Speed – CB | Questionable
- Drew Shelton – OT | Questionable
- Malik Hooker – S | Out
- Jonathan Bullard – DT | Out
- Jalen Thompson – S | Out
- J. Locke – S | Out
- Malik Davis – RB | Out
- Devin Moore – CB | Out
- Matt Hennessy – C | Out
- DJ Rogers – TE | Out
- Princeton Fant – TE | Out
Philadelphia Eagles
- Saquon Barkley – RB | Questionable
- Chance Campbell – LB | Questionable
- Jalen Hurts – QB | Out
- Will Shipley – RB | Out
- Tank Bigsby – RB | Out
- Andre’ Sam – S | Out
- Johnny Wilson – WR | Out
- Zack Baun – LB | Out
- Marquise Brown – WR | Out
- Marcus Epps – DB | Out
Dallas vs. Philadelphia Best Bet
Best Bet: Over 44.5
Cowboys fans remain frustrated as their team rotates through three defensive coordinators in as many years while fielding a highly vulnerable unit. Yet, from a betting perspective, the awful defenses the Cowboys have trotted out since 2024 have turned Dallas into a premier over team.
In 2025, the Cowboys posted a 13-4 over/under record without ever cashing consecutive unders. The year prior, they finished 11-6 over/under despite Dak Prescott missing the final nine games. They hit consecutive unders twice that season, but never more than two in a row, and Prescott did not play in any of those four contests.
Dallas enters this Monday Night Football clash on a rare streak of two consecutive unders, having scored under 20 points in consecutive weeks, and history suggests that won’t last long.
I also have no concerns about QB Tanner McKee and the Philadelphia offense carrying their share of the scoring load to push this game over the total, since the most reliable thing about the Cowboys defense is that it allows points. It’s been that way for three years now.
44.5 is a low number for a Cowboys game, and I’ve got no problem going over it this week.
