Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (-1.5): Total set at 53
Sunday Night Football this week could bring plenty of fireworks, as a total in the lower 50s suggests we won’t see much defense. Metrics for both Dallas and Green Bay support that expectation, setting up a fascinating prime-time handicap.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys boast a top-five offense overall. However, they are coming off a dismal 16-point home showing in prime time and need a bounce-back. The extra rest should help, but they must square off against a Green Bay defense riding high after forcing five turnovers and dominating the Chicago Bears.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ offense must put up massive numbers because the defense has been torched all year. Dallas ranks dead last in various key pass-defense categories, which is terrible news against a Packers team that just had its own offensive explosion through the air. Jordan Love threw for 367 yards last week, and he will have no problem exploiting a secondary that hasn’t stopped anyone all year.
With two QBs set to move the ball up and down the field, most bettors will expect plenty of points in this matchup.
But let’s see if the rest of the advanced stats for these clubs support that theory.
Dallas vs. Green Bay Breakdown
Dallas Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
Dallas Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.014 | -0.051 | 0.096 | 50.8% | 52.3% | 46.7% |
| Season | 0.158 | 0.246 | -0.036 | 49.2% | 51.8% | 43.6% |
Green Bay Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.311 | -0.433 | -0.033 | 39.1% | 39.6% | 38.1% |
| Season | -0.015 | 0.001 | -0.038 | 44.7% | 46.7% | 42% |
Dallas has one of the league’s most lethal and consistent attacks, entering this week ranked 5th in total EPA per play. This productivity has translated directly to the scoreboard, with the Cowboys averaging 27.6 points per game, the 7th-highest mark in the NFL. Dak Prescott and company have picked up right where they left off last season, comfortably ranking in the top ten in every major advanced passing and success-rate category.
On the other side of the ball, the Green Bay defense is fresh off an absolute field day against Chicago. The Packers finished 5th in the league in weekly EPA per play, stuffing the Bears all afternoon, holding them to a dismal 28.5 percent third-down conversion rate, and forcing five turnovers. However, I think that kind of performance is more likely an anomaly for Green Bay’s defense than something to expect each week.
Even after that dominant showing, Green Bay’s season-long metrics still rank 23rd in total EPA per play and 24th in defensive success rate. Crucially, the quarterbacks they have faced this season aren’t considered a collection of elite passing talent.
The Packers have compiled those numbers against Kyler Murray/Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, Michael Penix Jr., Jalon Daniels, and Tyson Bagent/Case Keenum.
In pure pocket passing, Prescott is in a different power-rating tier than anyone on that list, and he has far superior weapons.
Packers fans need to brace for reality, as last week’s dominant defensive effort looks like an oddity, not the norm.
Green Bay Offense vs. Dallas Defense
Green Bay Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.225 | 0.429 | -0.094 | 44.1% | 50% | 34.8% |
| Season | -0.017 | 0.133 | -0.333 | 39.8% | 42.9% | 33.3% |
Dallas Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.148 | 0.262 | 0.027 | 48.6% | 50% | 47.1% |
| Season | 0.182 | 0.382 | -0.063 | 50.9% | 57.3% | 43.2% |
The Green Bay offense is fresh off an explosive performance, finishing 5th in weekly EPA per play thanks to Jordan Love repeatedly airing it out deep downfield. The Packers’ dropback success rate ranked 4th in the league for the week as Love consistently connected on vertical shots, logging six separate completions of 30 or more yards, four of which eclipsed 42 yards.
I think those same deep shots will be available again this weekend, because this Dallas defense has failed to figure out how to stop the pass all season.
The Cowboys enter this matchup ranked dead last in the NFL in total EPA per play, defensive success rate, dropback EPA, and dropback success rate. The data suggests it doesn’t matter who an opposing team rolls out at quarterback; they’ll find passing success against this unit.
Dallas has already surrendered 10 passing touchdowns while recording zero interceptions all year, as opposing QBs average 8.1 yards per pass attempt.
What makes those last-place rankings even more alarming is that, much like the Packers’ defensive resume, the list of quarterbacks Dallas has faced is far from a murderers’ row. They have earned those bottom-tier stats against Jaxson Dart, a Jayden Daniels-and-Marcus Mariota combination, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, and Jalon Daniels.
Love may not eclipse some of those names in power rankings the way Prescott does vs. the list of QBs to face Green Bay, but I’d argue he’s at least better than most of them.
With Green Bay bringing the league’s worst rushing offense, averaging just 60.4 rushing yards per game, Love and the Packers will happily go with a pass-heavy attack as well.
That’s why I expect Love to have an absolute field day in the pocket.
Injuries and Roster Notes
Dallas Cowboys
- Cobie Durant – CB | Doubtful
- DeMarvion Overshown – LB | Doubtful
- Drew Shelton – T | Doubtful
- Ameer Speed – CB | Doubtful
- Joey Porter Jr. – CB | Questionable
- CeeDee Lamb – WR | Probable
- Tyler Smith – G | Probable
- Tyler Guyton – T | Probable
Green Bay Packers
- Javon Hargrave – DT | Out
- Benjamin St-Juste – CB | Doubtful
- Keisean Nixon – CB | Doubtful
- Skyy Moore – WR | Doubtful
- Jonathan Ford – DT | Doubtful
- Aaron Banks – G | Questionable
- Devonte Wyatt – DT | Questionable
- Evan Williams – S | Questionable
- Lukas Van Ness – EDGE | Probable
Dallas vs. Green Bay Best Bet
Best Bet(s):
Dak Prescott 280+ Passing Yards (+100)
Jordan Love 280+ Passing Yards (+105)
If this game transforms into the expected shootout, both quarterbacks will be heavily incentivized to air it out. Dak Prescott has done nothing but pass this year, clearing his passing-yard total in four straight games, while Jordan Love found rhythm with the deep ball last week, a trend he’s been on for a few weeks.
A higher-scoring, back-and-forth game script will only amplify the need to move the ball quickly to keep pace. And it doesn’t matter which QB ends up playing from behind more often; either one in that role will hunt for chunk plays downfield.
On top of that, this matchup features two of the league’s three worst rushing offenses.
Even though both defenses struggle against the run, these offenses will use any minor rushing success to open deeper passing lanes. Neither really wants to run the ball; they want the football in their quarterbacks’ hands as much as possible.
With elite contested-catch perimeter receivers like CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Christian Watson, who could blame them?
So rather than get involved in a side or a total here and likely sweat a coin flip in the final minutes, I’m sticking to what the QBs do with their arms.
Both are set up for tremendous success in that regard. Check the live NFL odds as you weigh these passing-yard props.
