New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (-7.5): Total set at 43.5
An intense AFC East divisional rivalry takes center stage in Week 6 as the upstart New York Jets travel to Foxboro to take on the surging New England Patriots.
A massive road win in Buffalo two weeks ago sparked a spectacular 45-point offensive explosion last week, as the Patriots easily put away an up-and-coming Las Vegas Raiders team that has shown some of the same early-season qualities as this Jets team.
So, are the Patriots ready to dominate another opponent most analysts believe sits a few tiers below them in the NFL power rankings?
Or will the Jets’ intimate knowledge of New England as a division rival give them the result Las Vegas would have preferred a week ago?
Let’s see what the numbers say.
New York vs. New England Breakdown
New York Offense vs. New England Defense
New York Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.172 | -0.344 | 0.034 | 39.7% | 40.5% | 38.7% |
| Season | -0.025 | 0.056 | -0.143 | 42.5% | 45.8% | 37.7% |
New England Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.034 | 0.050 | -0.231 | 41.7% | 47.6% | 27.8% |
| Season | -0.012 | -0.011 | -0.015 | 41.9% | 43.9% | 38.5% |
New York’s offense operates as a middle-of-the-pack unit, ranking around 20th in the league across major advanced categories. Geno Smith has done what the coaching staff asked, but his completion percentages have dipped to a concerning 53.3% and 56.7% over the last two weeks.
While Smith has protected the football well without throwing a single interception and owns a 104.2 passer rating, he and the offense are stung far too often by negative plays. He has already taken 16 sacks, the third-most in the league. He can also become too reliant on WR Garrett Wilson, as the two connected for 104 of Smith’s 182 total passing yards against the Browns.
However, New York has a clear opportunity to establish its ground game by targeting a glaring weakness in an otherwise solid New England defense. On paper, the Patriots boast strong peripheral numbers, but their season-long rush EPA of -0.015 is the third-worst in the NFL, trailing only the Saints and Colts. Not having RB Breece Hall available for that production likely stings, but the team still has plenty of confidence in backup RB Braelon Allen (4.1 yards per carry).
Furthermore, while New England ranks in the top ten in several situational defensive categories, their raw total EPA per play ranks 16th, about ten spots worse than New York’s. To me, this gap suggests these two teams are much closer in overall caliber than the point spread reflects.
For New York to do what the Raiders couldn’t and at least have a chance to pull off the upset, the Jets must stay balanced and get production from everyone involved. Easier said than done, I know, but if Allen can run the ball effectively and Smith can avoid taking too many sacks, the Jets will be in this one for the full 60 minutes.
New England Offense vs. New York Defense
New England Offense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | 0.366 | 0.696 | -0.185 | 52.8% | 62.2% | 37% |
| Season | 0.045 | 0.185 | -0.172 | 45.2% | 52.5% | 33.8% |
New York Defense
| EPA/play | Dropback EPA | Rush EPA | Success Rate | Dropback SR | Rush SR | |
| Last Week | -0.259 | -0.189 | -0.420 | 26.1% | 27.1% | 23.8% |
| Season | -0.035 | 0.054 | -0.177 | 44.7% | 45.8% | 43% |
New England’s offense is coming off a massive performance, particularly in the passing game. Last week, this unit topped the entire league in total EPA per play, dropback EPA, and dropback success rate, while finishing third in overall success rate. Drake Maye put together a spectacular outing, finishing with a 150.9 passer rating after throwing for 374 yards and four touchdowns on efficient 26-of-34 passing against the Raiders.
This explosive output isn’t an anomaly for the young quarterback either. New England enters the week ranked third in the NFL in season-long dropback success rate at 52.5 percent and hovers around the top ten in several other efficiency categories.
On the flip side, New York’s defense is fresh off a dominant, league-leading performance against Cleveland, where it led the league in dropback and overall success rates. However, poor weather heavily influenced that performance.
Looking at the Jets’ season-long resume, you see a mixed bag. While they rank tied for seventh in total EPA per play, they slip to 18th in dropback EPA and sit 23rd in overall defensive success rate at 44.7 percent. Opponents are still averaging 21 points per game against them. So it’s tough to know what type of performance to expect from the Jets’ defense.
Given how efficiently Maye and this Patriots passing attack are operating, I expect they’ll struggle, but I don’t think they’ll get blown out of the building either.
Injuries and Roster Notes
New York Jets
- Breece Hall – RB | Doubtful
- Adonai Mitchell – WR | Doubtful
- Dylan Parham – OL | Doubtful
- Joseph Ossai – DE | Doubtful
- Kenyon Sadiq – TE | Questionable
- Dane Belton – S | Questionable
- Oma Cooper Jr. – WR | Questionable
- Kiko Mauigoa – LB | Probable
New England Patriots
- Carlton Davis III – CB | Doubtful
- Karon Prunty – CB | Doubtful
- J. Brown – WR | Questionable
- TreVeyon Henderson – RB | Questionable
- Christian Gonzalez – CB | Questionable
- Marcus Jones – CB | Questionable
- Channing Canada – CB | Questionable
- Charles Woods – CB | Questionable
- Will Campbell – OT | Questionable
- Morgan Moses – OT | Questionable
- Marcus Bryant – OT | Questionable
- Kevin Byard III – S | Questionable
- Craig Woodson – S | Questionable
- Dre’Mont Jones – LB | Questionable
- Christian Elliss – LB | Questionable
- Drake Maye – QB | Probable
New York vs. New England Best Bet
Best Bet: NY Jets +7.5
On a macro level, this spot offers a classic opportunity to fade an NFL betting market that still overemphasizes recent results. Yes, the Patriots looked dominant a week ago and played great in their upset win over Buffalo, but teams coming off a 40-point performance this season have gone just 1-3 straight up and against the spread the following week. The Buffalo Bills’ eight-point victory as 7.5-point favorites against the Chargers represents the only cover in that spot.
So when I see the weekly results and 40+ points scored by teams out there, I know value almost always emerges when you go against those teams the next game. Spreads will be inflated by that extra half-point or so because many bettors find it hard to ignore, or even minimize, what they saw last.
Furthermore, an early-season scheduling trend has emerged, and it works in the Jets’ favor.
NFL teams are a modest 3-6-1 against the spread in the week immediately preceding a Thursday Night Football appearance this season. New England faces the same short-week distraction as it looks ahead to a Week 7 road trip to Chicago.
I’m coming into this game expecting Geno Smith and company to get their act together and find plenty of success against a Patriots defense that has surrendered 26 points per game over its last three contests.
But I also expect this defense to show it is just as good as, if not better than, what the Patriots have on the other side.
With the hatred of a division rivalry adding a little extra motivation for the New York side, especially after the Patriots made the Super Bowl last year, I think this game will finish within one score either way. And the Jets are more live on the ML than the current +270 price suggests.
But I’m keeping it simple and just taking the points with the visiting Jets. Compare the spread at top rated sportsbooks before placing your bet.
