Notre Dame vs. BYU: Why the Over Deserves a Look

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10.5) vs. BYU Cougars: Total set at 46.5

Two unbeaten, Top 10 squads get the College GameDay treatment in Provo, Utah, in Week 7, as Notre Dame and BYU look to stay unblemished.

Both sides enter this matchup with elite defensive numbers across the board, making for an interesting handicap given what’s at stake in this huge game. But those great defensive numbers are why this total has already dropped since the opener, as early bettors expect a defensive battle.

However, context is everything. Notre Dame has played the 63rd-toughest schedule to date, and BYU the 86th, meaning these sparkling metrics haven’t really been tested against elite competition. Now, they each face exactly that in one another.

So, are the Irish worthy of being this big a road favorite at elevation against a program that is 10-0 straight up in its last 10 at home? Or will BYU step up under the bright lights of the national stage and prove their early-season dominance isn’t a fluke?

Let’s explore the strong statistical profiles of these two teams and see what we find.

Notre Dame vs. BYU Breakdown

Notre Dame Offense vs. BYU Defense

Notre Dame Offense

BYU Defense

Notre Dame brings a remarkably potent attack, ranking 2nd in the country in points per play this season at 0.658. Over their last three games, that number has improved to 0.699, the 2nd-best mark in the country over that stretch. Right now, this group is simply clicking on all cylinders, as they also rank 4th nationally in yards per point at 10.4.

Furthermore, the Fighting Irish have scored touchdowns on 70.83% of their red-zone trips, ranking 25th in the nation. They are incredibly consistent at getting into scoring position, reaching the opposing 20-yard line at least four times in five of their six games this season.

However, this BYU defense will test those great offensive numbers.

The Cougars rank 15th nationally in opponent points per play (0.242) and 18th in opponent yards per point (18.1). They excel at managing the game’s flow, using their depth and rotation to keep their defense fresh and rested, imposing their will on the opposing offense. That’s going to be tough to do consistently against Notre Dame, but the likely wild Saturday night atmosphere at home will also work in the defense’s favor.

Yet, I think the ultimate swing factor in this game will be third-down efficiency.

While Notre Dame is incredibly dangerous once they gain traction, they are just 37th in third-down conversion percentage at 44.62%. For a top-two-ranked team, you’d expect it to be a little better, since #1 Georgia ranks 4th in that category and #3 Miami ranks 7th.

At the same time, BYU held Iowa State to just a 15.38% third-down conversion rate last week, which is phenomenal, but I highly doubt they can replicate it against the Irish. And considering their season-long 41st ranking in opponent third-down conversion came against that 86th-ranked strength of schedule, the Cougars’ defense could be more vulnerable than many currently suspect.

So the side that wins more of those third-down battles is the one I believe will cover the number in this game.

BYU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense

BYU Offense

Notre Dame Defense

BYU operates a highly deliberate, ball-control attack. While they don’t trail Notre Dame by much in points per play, ranking 38th nationally at 0.460, they run one of the slowest offenses in the country. The Cougars rank 132nd in plays per game, using a ground-heavy approach to bleed the clock and limit the opposition’s total possessions.

Therefore, I think BYU’s key will be leaning into their excellent third-down conversion rate. They rank 22nd in the country, moving the chains 47.83% of the time. One key to pulling off a huge upset is keeping the favorite’s high-powered offense off the field as much as possible; if the Cougars’ own attack can keep moving the chains, they’ll be well on their way to that result.

Another massive strength for the Cougars is finishing drives. Before last week’s game against Iowa State, they were a perfect 13-for-13, scoring touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. The loss of starting running back LJ Martin, and his lack of nose for the end zone, proved costly, though, as BYU faltered to a 2-for-5 touchdown conversion rate in the red zone against the Cyclones. BYU will gladly take five or more trips inside the 20 against the Irish, but if they bring those same efficiency numbers from the Iowa State game here, those hopes for an upset will take a hit.

It won’t be easy either. The Fighting Irish own a defense that ranks 4th in the country in opponent points per play, largely because it suffocates opponents and limits possessions. Notre Dame ranks 2nd nationally in opponent plays per game, allowing just 55 snaps per game on average. They also sit 12th in opponent yards per point. So Notre Dame’s offense does its part to limit the opposition’s possessions, and the defense keeps any possession brief. You can see why the Irish are currently #2 in the country.

However, like BYU, their third-down defense is middle of the pack, ranked 43rd nationally. And just as I believe BYU’s impressive third-down numbers from a week ago are unsustainable this week, I think the same goes for the Irish’s 18.18% third-down conversion rate against Stanford a week ago.

Furthermore, despite a relatively weaker schedule, the Irish have already given up 25 red-zone trips this season, and opponents have punched in 14 touchdowns on those opportunities. The Irish allowed five red-zone trips in their last true road game against North Carolina, and BYU’s offense has reached the opponent’s 20-yard line at least four times in four of its five games, including all three at home.

If those trends continue, BYU will score at least 20 points.

Injury Report

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• Leonard Moore – CB | Questionable
• Jason Onye – DT | Questionable
• Brauntae Johnson – S | Out
• Chaz Smith – CB | Out
• Christopher Burgess Jr. – DL | Out
• Tiki Hola – DL | Out
• Charles Jagusah – OL | Out
• Chris Terek – OL | Out

BYU Cougars

• LJ Martin – RB | Out
• Isaiah Glasker – LB | Out
• Andrew Gentry – OT | Out
• Canon DeVries – NB | Probable
• Stream Raider Damuni – S | Probable
• Siale Esera – LB | Probable
• Sione Moa – RB | Probable

Notre Dame vs. BYU Best Bet

Best Bet: Over 46.5

To me, the defensive stats from last week and the season as a whole (for both teams) point to inevitable regression for both sides, setting up plenty of opportunity for both offenses. Both defenses held opponents under 20 percent on third down last week, an elite mark that isn’t likely to hold up against these two offenses.

Additionally, BYU’s methodical pace of offense will likely have to speed up if they end up playing much of the game from behind, as the Notre Dame -10 point spread suggests. The Cougars already average 34.6 points per game at their slow pace. Give them extra possessions, even against one of the country’s better defenses, and I think reaching a similar point average is reasonable.

In fact, with Notre Dame’s offense averaging 44 points/game already this year, even if both units finish two touchdowns below their season averages (-14 points), a projected 30-20 Notre Dame win still comfortably clears this total.

I’m still not sold that either defense is anywhere near as good as their statistical profiles currently project, and I expect this game to be 7-10 points higher than the total currently suggests.

Take the over. Consult this list of sports betting sites to compare totals before placing your bet.