Mississippi Rebels vs. Texas Longhorns (-3.5): Total set at 53.5
What started as a highly promising campaign, highlighted by a monumental Week 2 win over top-ranked Ohio State, has quickly gone off the rails for Texas. After two straight defeats, criticism of quarterback Arch Manning has reached a fever pitch over subpar performances under center. Once ranked at the top, the frustrated Longhorns enter Week 8 ranked 19th, down 18 spots in just two weeks.
Yet, despite an underwhelming 0-5 run against the spread over their last five games, oddsmakers have installed Texas as a home favorite once again.
The Longhorns welcome a surging Mississippi Rebels squad riding momentum after dominating No. 13 Missouri in a 31-3 blowout last week. The Rebels’ defense was impressive, but make no mistake: this is still a team led by QB Trinidad Chambliss and its offense, as Chambliss remains among the Heisman favorites in the +700 range entering the week.
So, can the Rebels add to the Longhorns’ woes, or will Texas get its 2026 campaign back on track?
Let’s look at what the advanced numbers suggest about this crucial SEC matchup. When reviewing this matchup at Bovada sportsbook, compare the available spread with the Texas -3.5 evaluated here.
Mississippi vs. Texas Breakdown
Mississippi Offense vs. Texas Defense
Mississippi Offense
| Points per play | Plays per game | Yards per point | Red Zone Scoring % | 3rd Down Conversion % | |
| Last Week | 0.419 | 74 | 16.1 | 100 | 64.29 |
| Season | 0.543 | 69 | 11.9 | 100 | 47.22 |
Texas Defense
| Opp Points per play | Opp Plays per game | Opp Yards per point | Opp Red Zone Scoring % | Opponent 3rd Down Conversion % | |
| Last Week | 0.329 | 82 | 11.6 | 100 | 42.11 |
| Season | 0.259 | 68.8 | 15.3 | 81.25 | 32.95 |
Mississippi has a potent scoring unit, ranking 11th nationally in points per play (0.543) and yards per point (11.9). The Rebels’ defining strength is their immaculate execution inside the 20-yard line: they remain one of the few teams in college football with a perfect 100% red-zone scoring rate, converting all 24 trips into 21 touchdowns and three field goals.
Mississippi also presents an efficient drive-extending unit, ranking 25th in the nation by converting 47.22% of their third downs. QB Trinidad Chambliss is the critical piece in sustaining that efficiency against a challenging rival like the Longhorns.
Texas counters with a strong defense that ranks 24th in opponent third-down conversion rate (32.95%). While the Longhorns allowed Florida a 42.11% success rate last week, I view that performance as more of an anomaly.
I say that because, before that outing, the Texas defense strangled opponents on third down, holding Oklahoma to 2-for-13, Tennessee to 4-for-17, and UTSA to 1-for-11, keeping all three under 24%.
Therefore, I believe it’s reasonable to expect Texas to return to form on third down, especially with the motivation of playing a must-win home game to keep any hope of making the CFB playoff alive.
Texas Offense vs. Mississippi Defense
Texas Offense
| Points per play | Plays per game | Yards per point | Red Zone Scoring % | 3rd Down Conversion % | |
| Last Week | 0.436 | 55 | 11.3 | 100 | 20 |
| Season | 0.435 | 69.3 | 12 | 91.3 | 41.67 |
Mississippi Defense
| Opp Points per play | Opp Plays per game | Opp Yards per point | Opp Red Zone Scoring % | Opp 3rd Down Conversion % | |
| Last Week | 0.042 | 72 | 126 | 33.33 | 35.29 |
| Season | 0.333 | 71.7 | 16.4 | 78.26 | 43.96 |
Texas’s offense ranks 45th in points per play (0.435) but remains efficient, ranking 13th in yards per point (12.0). The primary issue stalling this unit is a mediocre 65.2% red-zone touchdown rate, which has directly contributed to a disappointing 0-5 record against the spread (ATS) over their last five games. The Longhorns have settled for six field goals and scored just 15 touchdowns on 23 trips inside the 20-yard line.
While Texas has been perfect in overall red-zone scoring percentage over the last three weeks, it simply isn’t creating enough opportunities, totaling just seven trips against Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Florida combined. The Longhorns cannot afford so few scoring opportunities and cannot settle for field goals against a Mississippi team that maximizes its scoring chances on the other side of the ball.
To change that, Texas will need a massive third-down rebound to sustain drives. Converting just 20% of their opportunities on the money down last week was unacceptable, though their season-long home average remains strong at 50%. Numbers like that suggest a favorable bounce-back opportunity for the Longhorns this week, as they face a Mississippi defense that struggles to get off the field, ranking 105th nationally in opponent third-down conversion rate at 43.96%.
However, the Rebels’ defense enters this matchup after a dominant 31-3 win over Missouri, where they led the nation last week by holding the Tigers to a horrific 126 yards per point.
While that performance boosted their season rank to 43rd in opponent points per play, it also creates a potential sell-high spot after that anomaly, as they still rank 38th in opponent red-zone scoring percentage.
If Texas stays ahead of the chains, it can exploit these third-down weaknesses, keep the chains moving, generate multiple trips inside the 20, and hopefully score touchdowns rather than settle for field goals (or worse) when they get there.
Injury Report
Mississippi Rebels
- Edwin Joseph – S | Out
- Nascar McCoy – DB | Out
- Enoch Wangoy – OL | Out
- Hayden Bradley – TE | Questionable
- MJ Preston – S | Questionable
- Antonio Kite – DB | Probable
- Ladarian Clardy – DB | Probable
Texas Longhorns
- Colin Simmons – EDGE | Out
- Jaydon Chatman – OL | Out
- Trevor Goosby – OG | Out
- Hollywood Smothers – RB | Questionable
- Zion Williams – DL | Questionable
- Kaliq Lockett – WR | Questionable
- Justus Terry – DL | Probable
- Jordan Coleman – OL | Probable
Mississippi vs. Texas Best Bet
Best Bet: Texas -3.5
The betting market and the broader CFB landscape seem to want nothing to do with the Longhorns after two straight losses and five straight losses against the spread. Texas has arguably been overvalued for much of the season, but college football point spreads tend to correct themselves quickly.
When you compare that prevailing perspective with the fact that Mississippi looks like it will end up in that dreaded public underdog role this week, I have to be the contrarian and back Texas.
For one, I don’t believe the Rebels’ perfect red-zone scoring percentage is sustainable as the season goes on, even with a Heisman favorite like Chambliss running the offense. Yes, they’ve been great so far, but the Longhorns’ defense excels at keeping foes out of the end zone, and Texas’s edge in opponent red-zone scoring percentage and opponent third-down conversion rates should drive that regression.
I expect the Longhorns to exploit those defensive advantages to get off the field consistently, hopefully turning those extra possessions into points.
Manning and company still must protect the football, but with the future of their season on the line, I believe this Longhorns offense will show one of its best versions. How could it not?
This Rebels defense is also in line for a major regression after last week’s dominant effort, and it’s still one of the worst defenses in college football on third down.
Add it all up, and I’ve got to lay the points with the home team.
