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NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Line and Total Update

James Murphy
by in NBA on
  • Game 6 of the NBA Finals is set for Tuesday, July 20 at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Start time is 9:05 PM Eastern/6:05 PM Pacific with TV coverage on ABC in the US.
  • The Bucks are one win away from the NBA Championship holding a 3-2 lead in the series.
  • The Milwaukee Bucks are a -5 point favorite in Game 6 with the total at 222 or 222.5.

The Phoenix Suns headed into Game 5 of the NBA Finals having lost two straight games in Milwaukee and desperately needing a ‘bounce back’ performance on their home floor. They didn’t get it. Instead, Milwaukee stole a 123-119 win to put them one game away from the NBA Championship holding a 3-2 lead in the series. With Game 6 now set for Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum on Tuesday, July 20 the Suns are in an extremely tenuous position.

Phoenix wasted another massive performance from Devin Booker who put up 40 points in the loss. Milwaukee held Booker in check in Game 3 as they limited him to 10 points but in the other four games he’s been excellent putting up 27, 31, 42 and 40 points. Chris Paul had 21 points and 11 assists and Phoenix got balanced scoring with all five starters in double figures. It wasn’t enough, however, as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined for 88 points in the victory. It was definitely Phoenix’s game to lose as they did everything ‘right’ from a statistical standpoint even outrebounding Milwaukee and blocking more shots.

Although Phoenix is 0-2 at the Fiserv Forum during this series they were the best road team in the NBA during the regular season with a record of 24-12. Including postseason play, they’re 30-16 SU/25-19-2 ATS away from home for a profit of +4.1 units. Milwaukee is 35-11 YTD at home and have improved to 25-21 ATS. They’re now ‘in the black’ at home with a profit of +1.9 units. This is only the second time that Phoenix has trailed in a series during the playoffs but they’re 1-0 SU/ATS in that spot. Coming off of an upset SU loss as a favorite they’re an impressive 15-4 SU/14-5 ATS YTD.


The line for Game 6 opened at -5 and hasn’t seen any significant movement since. The price is -5 across the board at every major book offshore and in Colorado, Nevada and New Jersey. Sportsbetting.com in Colorado has Milwaukee at -4.5 -122 with the Suns at +4.5 +100.


The total opened at 223 and has seen some slight downward movement with most sportsbooks showing 222 or 222.5. It’s split evenly in Southern Nevada with Circa, Westgate, Wynn and the Mirage at 222 and Stations, South Point, Golden Nugget and Caesars/William Hill at 222.5. Across the US with a focus on New Jersey and Colorado you’re seeing primarily 222 though BetMGM and FoxBet have 222.5. One outlier is BetOnline.ag at 221.5.


Moneyline range is -200 to -220 for Milwaukee with takeback on Phoenix at +170 or +180 most places. BetOnline.ag has Milwaukee -197 with takeback on Phoenix at +172.


Milwaukee is priced in the -370 to -400 range to win the championship with the Suns between +300 and +320.

We’ll update on Monday and take a look at betting patterns along with injury information.

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