- Game 5 of the NBA Finals is set for Saturday, July 17 at 9:00 PM Eastern/6:00 PM Pacific with TV coverage on ABC in the US.
- Both teams have swept on their home floor and the series is tied 2-2.
- The Phoenix Suns are a -4 point favorite in Game 5 with the total at 218 or 218.5.
The Phoenix Suns will bounce back from a pair of losses in Milwaukee as the NBA Finals heads back to the desert for Game 5. Each team has won and covered a pair of games on their home floor leaving the series tied at 2-2. Game 6 will be back in Milwaukee on Tuesday, July 20.
The Bucks demonstrated a lot of poise in their Game 4 win. After coasting to a wire to wire victory in Game 3 they trailed 82-76 heading into the fourth quarter of Game 4. Enter Kris Middleton, who scored 10 of his 40 points down the stretch to propel Milwaukee to a 109-103 win after outscoring Phoenix 33-21 in the fourth quarter. Devin Booker had a monster night for Phoenix with 42 points and Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo was a force on both ends of the court finishing with 26 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists.
Phoenix will no doubt be looking forward to returning home where they’ve won and covered five straight over the Bucks. Despite the two Milwaukee wins/covers in this series, the Suns have still held the edge in recent years winning and covering 7 of the last 10 games head to head. 7 of these 10 meetings have gone Over the total including 4 of 5 in Phoenix. Game 4 was the first game of the NBA Finals to stay Under the total and that has resulted in a downward adjustment in the total for Game 5.
The injury situation is the same as before Game 4. The only players listed on the report for either team are done for the year with season ending injuries. Milwaukee starting shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo is out with a torn ligament in his left ankle suffered during Game 3 of the Bucks’ opening round playoff win over Miami. Phoenix is without backup C/PF Dario Saric who is done for the year with a torn ACL suffered in the Suns ‘ Game 1 NBA Finals win. Saric could miss most if not all of the 2021-2022 season.
NBA FINALS GAME 5 SPREAD UPDATE
Phoenix is a -4 point favorite for Game 5 and there are nothing but fours across the board as of this writing. In Las Vegas, Circa, Golden Nugget, Westgate, Wynn, Stations, Caesars/William Hill, Mirage and Treasure Island are all at -4. Money is showing for the Suns and the OV–within the past 10 minutes South Point has moved the line to -4.5. Elsewhere in the US the story is the same with a prevalence of -4 at sportsbooks in the major betting states. In Colorado, William Hill, PointsBet, BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings and FanDuel, Betfred Sports, Elite Sportsbook, BallyBet, Betway, BetMonarch, TwinSpires, SkyUte, BetWildwood, PlayUp, FoxBet, PlayMaverick, TheScoreBet and WynnBET are all at -4. Colorado’s Sportsbetting.com is offering Phoenix -3.5 -114 with Milwaukee at +3.5 -105. SBK/Smarkets in Colorado has multiple spreads with Phoenix -4.5 +106/Milwaukee +4.5 -120, Phoenix -4 -103/Milwaukee +4 -108 and Phoenix -3.5 -112/Milwaukee +3.5 -102. New Jersey’s Tipico and Unibet are all at -4 while Bet365 has just moved to -3.5. BetOnline.ag is at -4.
Phoenix is now 13-7 ATS in the playoffs and have the best home court record against the spread in the NBA going 55-35-2 (61.1%) +16.5 units. The New York Knicks actually have a higher home court ATS winning percentage than Phoenix going 47-28-2 (62.7%) but have won fractionally less on a unit basis than the Suns (+16.2).
NBA FINALS GAME 5 TOTAL UPDATE
Most books are at 218 or 218.5. BetMGM (Colorado/NJ) showing 217.5 is the only outlier as of this writing.
NBA FINALS GAME 5 MONEYLINE UPDATE
Moneyline range is Phoenix -170 to -175 with takeback on Milwaukee between +145 and +155. Twin Spires–who always seems to have a substandard moneyline–is at Phoenix -185/Milwaukee +140.
NBA FINALS SERIES PRICE UPDATE
Phoenix is a -145 series favorite at BetOnline.ag with takeback on Milwaukee at +125.
NBA FINALS GAME 5 BETTING SPLITS UPDATE
VSIN’s betting splits report using numbers from DraftKings is showing strong action on the Suns with 73% of the bets and 84% of the handle on Phoenix. Moneyline has 75% of the handle and 60% of the bets on Phoenix. Total has 74% of bets and 78% of handle on the OV.
