- Friday’s racing card at Belmont Park will be headlined by the $750,000 USD Grade 1 New York Stakes for fillies and mares four years old and up.
- The New York Stakes is one of five graded stakes races on the Friday card.
- Saturday brings the huge racing day culminated by the Belmont Stakes.
BELMONT PARK FRIDAY, JUNE 10 2022
FIRST RACE POST TIME 12:50 PM EDT
Maiden Special Weight (MSW) with a $90,000 purse for 3 year olds and up going 1 mile on dirt. Chad Brown trained Artorius is the 2-1 morning line favorite. We’re going to back another Chad Brown trained entry–the #1 horse Exact Estimate. Interesting tidbit from the Equibase PPs for today–the jockey/trainer combination of Brown and jockey Flavian Prat have finished in the money 74% of the time in the previous 12 months. They’re also tops individually–against a field of very capable trainers (including Todd Pletcher) and very capable jocks (including Irad Ortiz, Jr., Luis Saez, etc.) that’s saying something. Exact Estimate turned in a 84 pace rating in his first–and so far only–race. Ended up finishing second in a stretch duel but gave off the vibe that he’s ready to win. Statistically very similar to Brown’s Artorious but at a better price with a more profitable jockey (though Irad Ortiz, Jr. is definitely no slouch). Can’t pass up the combo of class and value that Exact Estimate offers.
BET #1 EXACT ESTIMATE 5-1 TO WIN
Maiden claiming race $45,000 purse for fillies and mares 3 years old and up going 1 1/6 miles on the inner turf track. Regina is the 9-5 morning line favorite. The Chad Brown/Flavian Prat entry goes once again in, this time on the #7 horse Public Service. Not much value backing a winless horse at such a short price even though she finished in the money last time out. This race looks like a pass but you could do worse than backing one of the double digit priced entries.
THIRD RACE–THE 65th RUNNING OF THE BED O’ ROSES STAKES
GRADE 2–$300,000 USD PURSE
This race is named for 1949 2 year old champion filly and 1952 American Champion Older Female Horse Bed O’ Roses. Race was previously run at Jamaica Race Course until 1959. It then moved to Aqueduct until 2010. Seven furlongs on the dirt track. Bella Sofia is the 1-1 morning line favorite out of a small four horse field. The Daily Racing Form reported that 18 older fillies and mares were nominated to this race but we end up with just four horses involved. Bella Sofia looks to be the class of this field has won four of her last six races. She should be able to dictate pace as the only legit speed horse in the field and at this distance she could go wire to wire. Can’t back her at the price.
Allowance race for 3 year olds and up going 6 furlongs on the dirt track. Chad Brown’s Scilly Cay is a 2-1 morning line favorite. $92,000 USD purse. I’m looking at the #2 horse Prisoner who has won three straight, including two since being gelded on May 20, 2021. Claimed by Baker Charlton from Mike Repole’s stable earlier this year with a pair of wins at Aqueduct in his last two races. Scilly Cay might be the best horse statistically but hasn’t raced in a year. Prisoner looks to be every bit the horse as the favorite and the second favorite (Perfect Munnings trained by Todd Pletcher at 7-2) but just doesn’t have the ‘name’ connections. That gives us some value.
BET #2 PRISONER 4-1 TO WIN
Allowance optional claiming with a $94,000 USD purse for fillies and mares 3 years old and up going 7 furlongs on turf. Miss Dracarys at 7-2 is the morning line favorite out of a field of 13 runners. Several ‘sharp’ players I know like the #12 horse Messidor who got a tough trip last time out, bumped and blocked late in the race. Won the last race of her three year old campaign and looked very sharp in the process. At this price, I’ll take a shot.
BET #6 MESSIDOR TO 10-1 TO WIN
Maiden special weight w/ a $75,000 USD purse for NY bred horses 3 years old and up going six furlongs on turf. Yarrow is the 2-1 morning line favorite from a field of 10. I’m backing the #8 horse Bustin Up. Lightly raced, he looked tood in his first career race finishing second on the turf at Aqueduct. Had a tough trip in his only race this year and was a non factor on a 6 furlong race on a sloppy dirt track at Aqueduct on January 1. He now returns to his preferred surface off the layoff and looks worth a shot at the price.
BET #8 BUSTIN UP TO 10-1 TO WIN
Allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and up going 6 furlongs on dirt with a $92,000 USD purse. Chad Brown trained Speaks for Itself is an even money morning line favorite. She won in her maiden race at Aqueduct on April 14 against four other horses. I’m going to take a shot on the #4 horse Mischievous Diane who is making her three year old debut after a decent two year old campaign which saw her finish up 2021 with a win and a pair of second place finishes. Looks to have more speed and consistency than any other horse in the field.
BET #4 MISCHIEVOUS DIANE 6-1 TO WIN
EIGHTH RACE–THE 8th RUNNING OF THE BELMONT GOLD CUP
GRADE 2–$400,000 USD PURSE
Something of an oddball race for a North American track. It is the longest graded stakes race in North America as horses age four years old and up go a distance of two miles on the turf. The race has been dominated by European horses since the beginning. There are just two European horses shipping in this year, one being morning line favorite Outbox at 2-1. I’m going with the other European shipper–a German horse named Loft. Loft will have a replacement jockey aboard as his named jockey–Rene Piecheluk–has never raced in the US was unable to obtain a visa. This is a case where the replacement looks like an upgrade–Andrasch Starke has won the German riding championship six times and has raced all over the world including the US (21 mounts). His considerable experience also suggests that he won’t have a hard time figuring out what to do with a new mount. While the favorite has never raced at this distance (he’s campaigned mostly at 1.5 miles) Loft won the 2 mile Grade 2 (Gruppe 2) Oleander-Rennen last time out. That earned him a fees paid entry into this race. He’s not as experienced as Outbox but not sure that’s an issue here. The Europeans are dominated this race but I’m not sure that the favorite is the best horse in the field. If you want to get creative, you could use Loft on top of some exotics with a few of the double digit odds horses in the field. Outbox has shown a tendency in the past few years to ‘pack it in’ if he doesn’t get the pace or track placement he likes. He’s finished out of the money completely in four of his last six races. Definitely use the #6 Cibolian (10-1) and the #3 British Royalty (12-1) and
BET #1 LOFT TO 4-1 TO WIN
BET #1-#6 EXACTA
BET #1-#3 EXACTA
BET #1-#3/#6 TRIFECTA KEY
NINTH RACE–THE44th RUNNING OF THE TRUE NORTH STAKES
GRADE 2–$300,000 USD PURSE
Named for the winner of the 1945 Fall Highweight handicap. Horses 4 years old and up going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Jackie’s Warrior is the 2-5 favorite winning five of his last six races including both of his 2022 outings. A much better value looks to be the #1 horse Mr. Phil. Since being claimed by Sanford Goldfarb in February he’s won three of four including three straight and is coming off a 101 career best Beyer race. Doesn’t have the ‘brand name’ trainer like Jackie’s Warrior’s Steve Asmussen but the entry of jockey Kendrick Carmouche and trainer Rob Atras have almost identical ‘jockey/trainer’ in the money percentages. Only other horse that is anywhere near the class of the two mentioned above is the Chad Brown trained Sound Money though my take is that he’s overvalued due to the ‘brand name’ jockey/trainer combo with Irad Ortiz, Jr.
BET #1 MR. PHIL 5-1 TO WIN
TENTH RACE–THE 79th RUNNING OF THE NEW YORK STAKES
GRADE 1–$750,000 USD PURSE
For fillies and mares 4 years old and up going 1 1/4 miles on the inner turf track. Trainer Chad Brown has four runners in the event including 6-5 morning line favorite Rougir. Rougir has Flavian Prat aboard in his third career US race. She finished 7th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and in her only outing this year won the G3 Beaugay right here at Belmont Park. Bleeker Street has six wins in six races on turf with three of her four 2022 wins in stakes races. She won the G3 Modesty at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Oaks undercard, and before that she won the G2 Hillborough and G3 Endeavor at Tampa Bay Downs. She is moving up in distance but Brown thinks she can succeed going longer. She looks like the better horse at a better price. If you want to go with a non-Chad Brown trained horse the only legit option is likely Family Way with Tyler Gaffalione aboard at 8-1. She’s coming off a second place in the Grade 3 Bewitch at Keeneland and a win in the Grade 3 Orchid at Gulfstream. Concerned that Bleecker Street will get bet down (particularly with that name in New York) but Family Way becomes an even better value if she goes off at a longer price.
BET #5 BLEEKER STREET 5-2 TO WIN
BET #7 FAMILY WAY 8-1 TO WIN
BET 7-5 EXACTA BOX
ELEVENTH RACE–THE 9th RUNNING OF THE INTERCONTINENTAL STAKES
GRADE 3–$200,000 USD PURSE
The day concludes with a race for older fillies and mares (4 years old and up) going 6 furlongs on turf. Caravel is a 4-1 morning line favorite out of a 13 horse field. The sharp horse players I know prefer the #4 Toby’s Heart and like the value with the #5 Jouster at 12-1. Jouster offers the trainer/jockey combo of Todd Pletcher and Flavian Prat. Prat has finished in the money 61% of the time in the L12 months, the highest percentage of any jockey in the race.