Betting Odds Suggest Tom Brady Isn’t Going Anywhere

by James Murphy in NFL  / January 5, 2020

The Tennessee Titans ‘upset win’ over the New England Patriots in the wild card round of the NFL playoffs is nowhere near as monumentally shocking as the mainstream sports media is suggesting. The Patriots have looked vulnerable since the midpoint of the season. They played a laughably weak schedule this year which along with a strong defense is how they were able to finish 12-4. The offense sputtered all season long due primarily to a lack of skill position playmakers. On Saturday, they faced a Tennessee team that had gone 7-3 in their final 10 games and completely turned their season. With veteran QB Ryan Tannehill, punishing rusher Derrick Henry and emerging receiving talent AJ Brown they had the playmaking weapons that the Patriots lacked.

The reality that the Patriots got beat by a pretty solid Tennessee Titans teams hasn’t stopped the mainstream sports media from completely freaking out over New England’s future. Much of the hysteria has focused on a question that has some degree of salience–the future of Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady. Brady will become a free agent in March and has made clear that he’s not planning to retire. Meanwhile, head coach Bill Belichick has largely deflected any question about Brady’s future role in New England.

This will likely be one of the major storylines of the NFL offseason but it could be ‘much ado about nothing’. BetOnline.ag has posted a number of props concerning the future of Brady and the Patriots and their betting odds suggest that in this case at least change isn’t inevitable.

Here’s the BetOnline.ag odds that address a potential Brady retirement as well as the possibility that he might leave via free agency:

WILL TOM BRADY BE ON PATRIOTS ROSTER WEEK 1 OF 2020

YES -200
NO +150

WILL TOM BRADY RETIRE BEFORE 2020 SEASON

YES +600
NO
-1000

The implied probability at -200 is 66.7% which means that the most likely scenario for Brady is a return to the New England Patriots. The odds also suggest that there’s less than a 10% chance that Brady will retire prior to the 2020 NFL season. BetOnline.ag has some other Brady props that we’ll cover in a subsequent article. They’ve also got a Bill Belichick retirement prop on the board but the odds suggest that his retirement is less likely than Brady’s:

WILL BILL BELICHICK RETIRE BEFORE 2020 SEASON

YES +700
NO
-1500

That equates to a 93.8% chance that Belichick will stick around for at least another season.

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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