2019 Tony Award Nominations Betting Odds

by James Murphy in Entertainment  / April 14, 2019

  • The Tony Awards recognize excellence in live Broadway theater.
  • Nominations for the 73rd Tony Awards will be announced on April 30.
  • The 73rd Tony Awards ceremony will be broadcast by CBS on June 9.

The Tony Awards began on April 6, 1947 and despite the growth of countless other forms of visual entertainment continue to be relevant today. The ‘official’ name is the ‘Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre’ but since that doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue so the name was almost immediately shortened to ‘Tony Awards’. The award is named after Broadway actress/director/producer Antoinette Perry who died in 1946. She was also the co-founder of the American Theatre Wing which is essentially the live drama equivalent to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science and the organization that presents these awards. Ms. Perry was reportedly nicknamed ‘Tony’ which makes the shortened version of the award make perfect sense. The ‘Tony’ nickname dates back to the first awards presentation and is credited to Warner Brothers story editor Jacob Wilk. According to history, it was a complete ad-lib he made while giving out one of the inaugural awards and the name stuck.

The first few years the American Theatre Wing gave out useful stuff instead of an award. In the first two years of the Tony Awards the prizes were a scroll, cigarette lighter and articles of jewelry such as 14-carat gold compacts and bracelets for the women, and money clips for the men. The award itself was first used in 1949 and the official Tony Awards website provides this background:

In 1949 the designers’ union, United Scenic Artists, sponsored a contest for a suitable model for the award. The winning entry, a disk-shaped medallion designed by Herman Rosse, depicted the masks of comedy and tragedy on one side and the profile of Antoinette Perry on the other. The medallion was initiated that year at the third annual dinner. It continues to be the official Tony Award.

Since 1967 the medallion has been mounted on a black pedestal with a curved armature. After the ceremony, each award is numbered for tracking purposes and engraved with the winner’s name.

THE TONY AWARDS’ TV VIEWERSHIP UP IN 2018

As the significance of Broadway Theatre has receded somewhat the viewership of the Tony Awards has also declined. In 1974, the Tony Awards had 20,026,000 viewers. That dropped to 9,155,000 but has remained fairly consistent over the past 17 years bringing in between 6 and 8 million viewers per year. The 2016 Awards drew a 1.6 rating with 8.7 million viewers, largely attributed to the curious mainstream popularity of ‘Hamilton’. If that was the case, the absence of ‘Hamilton’ took a toll in the ratings in 2017–the Tony’s dropped to a 0.9 rating and 6 million viewers which is a drop of 44% in the ratings and 31% in total viewers.

CBS has remained committed to the Tony Awards not so much for their mainstream popularity but for the impressive demographics that it attracts. In short–rich and smart. Despite the lower ratings the producers have no trouble selling advertising since the Tony Awards’ demographics are a marketers dream. The CBS broadcast of the 2018 Tony Awards saw a surprising upswing in the ratings:

“The final numbers have the Tonys bringing in a 1.0/4 among adults 18-49 and 6.32 million viewers. Without any of the strong sporting competition of recent years, that’s an 11% demo increase and a 4% uptick in total audience.”

The 6.32 million viewers was a nice improvement from the year before. Some observers credited the improvement to the broad appeal of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child and a performance by Bruce Springsteen but I’m skeptical that ‘The Boss’ can bring in over a quarter million viewers at this stage of his career:

The Tony Awards saw ratings tick upward with a Sunday night show highlighted by a Bruce Springsteen performance and big wins for “Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.”

The 2018 Tonys scored a 1.0 rating in the 18-49 demo, according to Nielsen overnight numbers, up one tenth of a point from last year’s telecast. Hosted by Sara Bareilles and Josh Groban, the show also averaged 6.3 million total viewers, up 5% from last year. Ahead of the telecast, “60 Minutes” drew a 0.7 rating and 7.9 million viewers.

Much has been made of the changing broadcast television landscape with many suggesting that ‘ratings don’t matter any more’. While that might be an oversimplification in the post digital revolution media landscape there is considerable truth to that. If content of any type can aggregate an audience on a wide variety of platforms there’s a good chance it can be monatized. The Tony Awards could be a beneficiary of this trend. The Broadway League sounds happy with the relationship with CBS but at some point in the not too distant future it could be in their best interest to re-think the Tony Awards broadcasting format. Given the demographics, you’d have to think that many in the audience would purchase a pay-per-view version of the broadcast on a streaming platform or even via the Tony Awards website.

Here are the odds for the 2019 Tony Awards nominations in the major categories. Once the nominations are out on April 30, we’ll get to work on the offical SPORTS INSIDER odds to win the Tony Awards in every category:

2019 TONY AWARD NOMINATIONS BETTING ODDS

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST PLAY’

The Ferryman                                          +350
To Kill A Mockingbird +350
Network +500
Hillary and Clinton +750
What the Constitution Means to Me +750
Ink +1000
Choir Boy +1500
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus +2500
The Lifespan of a Fact +2500
American Son +2500
Straight White Men +2500
The Nap +2500
The New One +2500
Bernhardt/Hamlet +2500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST MUSICAL’

The Prom                                              +350
Tootsie +350
Hadestown +500
Ain't Too Proud +500
Be More Chill +500
Beetlejuice +1000
The Cher Show +1500
Gettin' the Band Back Together +2500
King Kong +2500
Pretty Woman +2500
Head Over Heels +2500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL’

Oklahoma                                              No Line
Kiss Me Kate No Line

There are only two eligible musicals in this category. The Tony Award nominating committee has the option of awarding a separate ‘Best Revival of a Musical’ award or including the two musicals in a ‘Best Revival of a Play or Musical’ combined category.

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY’

Burn This                                             +350
All My Sons +350
William Shakespeare's King Lear +500
The Waverly Gallery +500
True West +750
The Boys in the Band +1000
Any Musical Revival +1500
Torch Song +2500

With only two eligible musicals in the ‘Revival’ category the Tony Award nominating committee has the option of awarding a separate ‘Best Revival of a Musical’ award or including the two musicals in a ‘Best Revival of a Play or Musical’ combined category. All bets on ‘Any Musical Revival’ are action regardless of category changes. If the Tony Award nominating committee announces a separate ‘Best Musical Revival’ category the ‘All Musical Revival’ betting interest in this market will be graded as a loss. If there is one combined revival category all wagers on ‘Any Musical Revival’ will be graded as a win if either or both eligible musicals are nominated.

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY’

Paddy Considine/The Ferryman                            +450
Jeff Daniels/To Kill A Mockingbird +450
Bryan Cranston/Network +600
John Lithgow/Hillary and Clinton +600
Nathan Lane/Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus +750
Ethan Hawke/True West +750
Adam Driver/Burn This +1500
Jeremy Pope/Choir Boy +1500
Daniel Radcliffe/The Lifespan of a Fact +1500
Tracy Letts/All My Sons +2500
Johnny Lee Miller/Ink +2500
Michael Ure/Torch Song +2500
Jim Parsons/The Boys in the Band +2500
Lucas Hedges/The Waverly Gallery +5000
Paul Dano/True West +5000
Steven Pasquale/American Son +5000
Daniel Radcliffe/The Lifespan of a Fact +5000
Mike Birbiglia/The New One +5000

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY’

Glenda Jackson/Wm. Shakespeare's King Lear              +300
Laurie Metcalf/Hillary and Clinton +500
Elaine May/The Waverly Gallery +500
Annette Benning/All My Sons +750
Laura Donnelly/The Ferryman +750
Kerry Washington/American Son +950
Heidi Schreck/What the Constitution Means To Me +950
Keri Russell/Burn This +1500
Janet McTeer/Bernhardt/Hamlet +1500
Cherry Jones/The Lifespan of a Fact +1500
Kristine Nielsen/Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus +1500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL’

Santino Fontana/Tootsie                                +250
Will Chase/Kiss Me Kate +350
Damon Daunno/Oklahoma! +350
Alex Brightman/Beetlejuice +750
Brooks Ashmanskas/The Prom +750
Reeve Carney/Hadestown +750
Will Roland/Be More Chill +1500
Derek Baskin/Ain't Too Proud +1500
Eric William Morris/King Kong +1500
Mitchell Jarvis/Gettin' the Band Back Together +2500
Andy Karl/Pretty Woman +2500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL’

Stephanie J. Block/The Cher Show                       +250
Kelli O'Hara/Kiss Me Kate +450
Beth Leavel/The Prom +450
Rebecca Naomi Jones/Oklahoma! +700
Eva Noblezada/Hadestown +700
Sophia Anne Caruso/Beetlejuice +700
Caitlin Kinnunen/The Prom +700
Christiani Pitts/King Kong +1500
Samantha Barks/Pretty Woman +1500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY’

Gbenga Akinnagbe/To Kill A Mockingbird                 +350
Brandon Uranowitz/Burn This +600
Tony Goldwyn/Network +600
Andrew Rannells/The Boys in the Band +750
Tom Glynn-Carney/The Ferryman +750
Robin De Jesus/The Boys in the Band +1500
Gideon Glick/To Kill A Mockingbird +1500
Bertie Carvel/Ink +1500
Benjamin Walker/All My Sons +1500
John Douglas Thompson/Wm. Shakespeare's King Lear +1500
Peter Francis James/Hillary and Clinton +2500
Michael Cera/The Waverly Gallery +2500
Chuck Cooper/Choir Boy +2500
Dylan Baker/Bernhardt/Hamlet +2500
Ben Schnetzer/The Nap +2500
Justin Edwards/The Ferryman +5000
Will Pullen/To Kill A Mockingbird +5000
Matt Bomer/The Boys in the Band +5000
Eugene Lee/American Son +5000
Armie Hammer/Straight White Men +5000
Any Other Actor +1500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY’

Celia Keenan-Bolger/To Kill A Mockingbird              +350
LaTanya Richardson Jackson/To Kill A Mockingbird +350
Fionnula Flanagan/The Ferryman +700
Mercedes Ruehl/Torch Song +700
Jayne Houdyshell/Wm. Shakespeare's King Lear +1500
Julie White/Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus +1500
Tatiana Maslany/Network +1500
Joan Allen/The Waverly Gallery +2500
Dearbhla Molloy/The Ferryman +2500
Ruth Wilson/Wm. Shakespeare's King Lear +2500
Alyssa Bresnahan /Network +2500
Genevieve O'Reilly/The Ferryman +2500
Elizabeth Marvel/Wm. Shakespeare's King Lear +2500
Francesca Carpanini/All My Sons +2500
Alexandra Billings/The Nap +2500
Any Other Actress +1500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL’

Patrick Page/Hadestown                                 +500
Michael McGrath/Tootsie +500
Christopher Sieber/The Prom +500
Corbin Bleu/Kiss Me Kate +750
Will Brill/Oklahoma! +750
Rob McClure/Beetlejuice +750
George Salazar/Be More Chill +2500
Patrick Vaill/Oklahoma! +2500
Ephraim Sykes/Ain't Too Proud +2500
Jarrod Spector/The Cher Show +2500
Andre De Shields/Hadestown +2500
Jeremy Pope/Ain't Too Proud +2500
Michael Potts/The Prom +5000
Andy Grotelueschen/Tootsie +5000
Eric Anderson/Pretty Woman +5000
James Davis/Oklahoma! +5000
Jason Tam/Be More Chill +5000
John Behlmann/Tootsie +5000
Reg Rogers/Tootsie +5000
Jawan M. Jackson/Ain't Too Proud +5000
Any Other Actor +1500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL’

Ali Stroker/Oklahoma!                                  +250
Amber Gray/Hadestown +350
Mary Testa/Oklahoma! +450
Stephanie Hsu/Be More Chill +600
Stephanie Styles/Kiss Me Kate +750
Sarah Stiles/Tootsie +1500
Leslie Kritzer/Beetlejuice +1500
Lilli Cooper/Tootsie +2500
Bonnie Milligan/Head Over Heels +2500
Kerry Butler/Beetlejuice +2500
Angie Schworer/The Prom +5000
Julie Halston/Tootsie +5000
Micaela Diamond/The Cher Show +5000
Peppermint/Head Over Heels +5000
Orfeh/Pretty Woman +5000
Isabelle McCalla/The Prom +5000
Teal Wicks/The Cher Show +5000
Emily Skinner/The Cher Show +5000
Any Other Actress +1500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY’

The Ferryman                                           +250
To Kill A Mockingbird +350
Network +450
All My Sons +600
Hillary and Clinton +750
True West +750
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus +1500
Ink +2500
Burn This +2500
Torch Song +2500
Any Other Play +1500

TO BE NOMINATED FOR ‘BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL’

Oklahoma!                                              +250
Hadestown +350
The Prom +500
Tootsie +500
Kiss Me Kate +750
Be More Chill +1500
Ain't Too Proud +1500
Beetlejuice +2500
Pretty Woman +2500
The Cher Show +2500
King Kong +5000
Head Over Heels +5000
Any Other Actress +2500

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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