Excellent matchup on Monday Night Football this week with some serious postseason implications. The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers have both qualified for the postseason but the NFC North title is still up for grabs. The Packers are currently on top of the divisional table at 11-3 but the Vikings are right behind at 10-4. Also at stake is home field advantage and a first round bye. Suffice to say the stakes are considerable and particularly for the Vikings. Minnesota is 6-0 at US Bank Stadium leaving them as the lone undefeated home team in the NFL. Since the Vikings are just 4-4 away from the Twin Cities clinching home field advantage is virtually mandatory.
Green Bay is no slouch at Lambeau Field either with a 7-1 record but they’re 4-2 away from home. They’ve done a great job of taking care of business with an eye toward the postseason. The Packers are undefeated against divisional foes this year (4-0) and 8-2 against NFC rivals. Worth noting that Minnesota has done well in conference with a 7-3 record against the NFC.
The Packers beat Minnesota at home 21-16 on September 15 but that result is something of an anomaly as the Vikings have gotten the best of Green Bay in recent years. Minnesota has won and covered against Green Bay at home during the last three seasons and in the last eight head to head overall the Vikings are 5-2-1 SU/5-3 ATS. The Vikings have been an excellent favorite in recent years and come in on a 12-5-1 ATS run when laying points.
Packers enter on a three game winning streak but haven’t looked sharp in their most recent outings. They were life and death to beat the lowly Redskins on December 8, winning by 5 as -14 home favorites. They managed to get the cover against the Bears last week but with a 21-13 win were far from dominant. Packers haven’t done well playing indoors and are on a 0-5 SU/ATS run in dome games over the last three seasons. They’ve also been horrible in this pointspread role as an underdog of +3.5 to +9.5 points. In this situation they’re 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS L3 years. As a road dog of +3.5 to +7 they’re on a 1-4 SU/ATS run. Overall as an underdog the Packers are 4-15 SU/7-12 ATS L3 years.
The situation favors the home team and the Vikings have been downright nasty there. Quite a few -4.5 prices in the marketplace so we’ll lay the wood with the Vikings. We’ll also play this game ‘Under’ the total. Packers have stayed ‘Under’ the total in 5 of 6 as their offense has been sputtering since early November. Vikings have gone ‘Under’ in 16 of their last 18 NFC North divisional games.