The lights at the Dolby Theatre won’t flicker to life for another month, but if you look at the board, the Academy has already made up its mind. In the world of prestige cinema, there is “art,” and then there is the “narrative.” Right now, the narrative for the 98th Academy Awards is a steamroller named Paul Thomas Anderson.
The Heavyweight: One Battle After Another (-600)
At -600, the math tells you that One Battle After Another has an 85% chance of taking home the night’s biggest prize. This isn’t just because the film—a sweeping, satirical epic of 2020s rebellion—is a masterpiece. It’s because the industry has decided it’s “Time.” PTA is the perpetual bridesmaid of the Oscars, and after decades of near-misses, this 13-nomination juggernaut feels like a lifetime achievement award disguised as a Best Picture win.
For a bettor, the value here is non-existent. You’re laying $600 just to see a $100 return. Unless a major scandal breaks or the Producers Guild (PGA) pulls a massive U-turn next week, the chalk is as dry as a desert.
The Record-Breaker: Sinners (+450)
If you’re looking for the “Sharp” play, it’s Ryan Coogler’s +450 vampire-blues epic. Sinners didn’t just break records; it shattered them with 16 nominations—the most for any single film in history.
Usually, 16 nods would make a film a lock, but Sinners is facing the “Genre Hurdle.” The Academy still treats horror and “blood-spurting” musicals with a level of suspicion usually reserved for a used car salesman. However, at +450, you’re getting nearly 5-to-1 on a film that saved the theatrical box office this year. If the “Good White Liberals” (as the critics are calling them) decide they want to reward cultural relevance over PTA’s “overdue” status, this is where the upset happens.
The Longshots: From Shakespeare to Ping-Pong
- Hamnet (+1000): Chloé Zhao’s grieving-mother drama is the emotional anchor of the season. Jessie Buckley is a near-lock for Best Actress, but the film itself feels like it will be “split” out. You take the acting trophy, we take the Picture. No value here.
- Marty Supreme (+2800): Josh Safdie’s ping-pong odyssey is a cult favorite and a box office darling, but it’s too “cool” for the older voting block. It’s a great movie to watch, but a bad movie to bet on.
- Frankenstein (+10000) & Sentimental Value (+10000): These are the lottery tickets. Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein is a technical marvel, and Sentimental Value is the “critic’s choice” international darling. They are here for the appetizers and the technical awards. Don’t light your money on fire.
The Insider’s Verdict: If you’re a professional, you stay away from the -600. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze. Instead, look at the Best Supporting Actor market where Benicio Del Toro is gaining steam, or take a flyer on Sinners (+450) if you think the Academy is finally ready to let a vampire take home the gold.
