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Super Bowl LIV Outlier Betting Lines

James Murphy
by in NFL on

One of the interesting storylines about Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers has been about the betting odds. More specifically, the discussion has focused on the relatively narrow range of movement on the pointspread along with the heavy action on the ‘Over’. The prices on the side and total have continued to fall into equilibrium to the point that most significant sportsbooks anywhere in the world have very similar prices.

In Southern Nevada, the most influential sportsbooks have the Chiefs as -1 point favorites though a few (Caesars, Mirage, Wynn) have the game at KC -1.5. Outside of the Silver State, the 1.5 price is more common–this is true not only for the major bookmakers elsewhere in the US (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetAmerica), offshore sportsbooks that serve a North American client base as well as the major UK books. Same deal with the total which is most commonly found at 54.5 with quite a few 55 numbers in the market as well. Back in Las Vegas, CG Technologies (the former Cantor Gaming) has moved to 54 after reportedly booking a six figure ‘Under’ wager overnight on Thursday.

We’ll look at the Super Bowl betting market again before kickoff but tonight we’re going to go off the beaten path a bit and feature a few places where you can find outlier lines on both side and total. The first place we’ll go is Northern Nevada where Baldini’s Casino in Sparks is the only sportsbook on ‘the screen’ showing San Francisco as a favorite. Baldini’s is a local operation that has used independent lines and player friendly rules to compete with the corporate conglomerates in the area. Since the San Francisco 49ers usually get plenty of betting support in Northern Nevada they opened the Super Bowl at SF -1 and have maintained that price though they have moved the moneyline around a bit starting at -110 and currently at +105. The total at Baldini’s has taken a more traditional path, opening at 52 and moving up to 54.5. If you’re in the area, Baldini’s is at the ‘corner of Rock and Glendale’.

Staying in Northern Nevada, the Carson Valley Inn in Minden opened the Super Bowl at ‘pick’ and are still showing that price. They’ve moved the moneyline on the game from SF PK -120 to -110 on both sides. They’ve also gone as high as 55 on the total. The Peppermill in Reno also opened the game as a ‘pick’ but quickly fell in line going to KC -1.

Elsewhere in the Western United States, the Chiefs are getting the majority of the betting action. Currently, the Buffalo Thunder Casino near Santa Fe, New Mexico has the highest price I’ve seen on Kansas City. The Chiefs are showing as a -2.5 point favorite there and the total on the game has bounced between 55.5 and 56. It’s a similar story at the Santa Ana Star Casino near Albuquerque where the line is showing KC -2. The total there has also hit 56 and is currently at 55.5 OV -115. You’d think that given their proximity to the Bay Area that the Pacific Northwest would be backing the Niners. That’s not the case–at least not at the Chinook Winds Casino Resort on the Oregon Coast. They opened the Chiefs -1 but are now showing -2 along with a 56 total.

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