The narrative arc of Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium is one that even Hollywood would find a bit too on the nose. We have a rematch of the legendary Super Bowl XLIX, featuring the two hottest teams in the league, both led by first-year head coaches who have orchestrated historic turnarounds. On one side, Mike Macdonald has restored the “Dark Side” defense in Seattle; on the other, Mike Vrabel has returned the Patriots to their gritty, “worst-to-first” roots.
The betting markets have been active, and according to BetOnline, the Seattle Seahawks are currently sitting as 5-point favorites.
The Case for the Seahawks (-5)
Seattle enters Sunday on a nine-game winning streak, looking like the most complete team in football. Their offense, led by the resurrected Sam Darnold, has been surgical. Darnold isn’t just “managing” games; he’s weaponizing the league’s most explosive receiving threat in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the NFL with nearly 1,800 receiving yards this season.
When you pair that aerial attack with Kenneth Walker III’s ability to punish teams between the tackles, Seattle presents a “pick your poison” dilemma. Defensively, the Seahawks are the No. 1 unit in DVOA. They pressure with four, disguise coverages beautifully, and have a secondary led by Devon Witherspoon that can erase a team’s top option. If Seattle scores early and forces New England into a shootout, covering five points becomes a very manageable task.
The Case for the Patriots (+5)
Never count out a Mike Vrabel-led underdog. The Patriots are a staggering 9-0 on the road this year (including neutral sites) and have thrived in the “ugly” games. Their 10-7 AFC Championship win over Denver was a masterclass in situational football.
The x-factor is sophomore QB Drake Maye. While he’s dealing with a shoulder tweak and has been sack-prone in the playoffs, his ceiling is MVP-level. With Stefon Diggs providing a veteran safety valve and a defense that has allowed just 8.6 points per game this postseason, the Patriots have the DNA to keep this within a field goal. They win by shortening the game, lean on Rhamondre Stevenson, and wait for the one mistake Darnold is still prone to making under pressure.
Expert Pick
While the Patriots’ turnaround is the story of the year, this matchup feels like a bridge too far for a young quarterback against this specific defense. Seattle’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing will likely be the undoing of a shaky New England offensive line. Expect Smith-Njigba to find the soft spots in the zone while the Seahawks’ defense creates at least two turnovers.
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks -5
