The Philadelphia Eagles are in the fight to win the NFC East but that sounds a lot more impressive than it really is. The division has become one that no one really wants to win with Philly and Dallas both at a mediocre 5-4. The Eagles and Patriots are both coming off a bye but Philadelphia went into their bye in good form winning and covering two straight at Buffalo and home against Chicago.
New England is such a high profile team that it’s almost redundant to review their performance to date this season. The Patriots are 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS but are coming off of their first loss of the season as they were bludgeoned 37-20 at Baltimore losing as -3 point road favorites. New England dropped to 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS away from home this season. The Patriots are also in a rare ‘Super Bowl revenge spot’–two years ago the Eagles beat New England 41-33 in Super Bowl LII and if you think that they’ve forgotten about this you don’t know the MO of Bill Belichick.
The fundamental matchup also favors New England. The Patriots might not have played the toughest schedule in the league but their defense is downright nasty. They’ve got the #1 total defense in the NFL holding opponents to 249.3 yards per game. They’ve got the #1 scoring defense in the league allowing just 10.9 PPG which is 3.4 PPG better than the second place San Francisco 49ers. They’ve got the #2 passing defense in football and although they’re just the #11 rushing defense in the NFL they hold opponents to under 100 PPG (99.1 YPG). The Eagles’ offense is nothing special ranking #20 in total offense and #13 in scoring offense.
Betting Bill Belichick off a bye has been a kneejerk NFL betting position for years now and he enters on a 4-1 SU/ATS run after the Patriots’ week off. Philly is 1-2 after regular season byes under Doug Pederson. That’s off a ‘garden variety’ bye. We get Belichick coming off a *loss* after a bye week and against a team that beat him in the Super Bowl. Statement time for a team that is definitely capable of making one.