NFL Football Betting: Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots

by James Murphy in NFL  / November 23, 2019

Tom Brady isn’t particularly happy with the New England Patriots offense at this point but at least he’s going to play. Realistically, that was expected all along though Brady was listed as ‘questionable’ earlier this week with a banged up right elbow. He was a ‘limited participant’ during Friday’s practice but from the sound of it the team never really doubted his availability. Here’s how the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport explained it in a Tweet later in the day on Friday:

The betting community never took the bait though some money has come in on the Cowboys. The Pats opened as a -7 home chalk and is down to -5.5 or -6 though there are a few -6.5 out there as well. Lest we forget, Brady still isn’t happy with the Patriots offense and with good reason. They scored 35 points against the New York Giants on 10/10 and their scoring output has declined every week since. They scored 33 against the Jets on 10/21, 27 against Cleveland on 10/27, 20 in a loss at Baltimore on 11/3 and 17 at Philadelphia last week though they did manage to scrap out the SU/ATS win. Throw in a ton of injuries in the wide receiver corps along with OT Marcus Cannon and RB Damien Harris listed as ‘questionable’ and it could be another tough week for the Pats’ offense.

Dallas dropped to 3-3 after a three game losing streak in late September/early October but worth noting that two of the losses were against Green Bay and New Orleans–teams with a combined record of 16-4 on the year. Even the loss to the Jets isn’t looking as bad in retrospect as it did at the time. Dallas was definitely the beneficiary of an easier schedule over the past month and have won 3 of 4 with victories at home over Philly and at the Giants and Detroit. They’re stepping up in class here but it’s important to keep in mind that the Patriots have played an exceedingly weak schedule this season. Their only win against an opponent with a winning record was versus the Buffalo Bills. Their other 8 victories came against opponents with a combined SU record of 20-50.

New England’s sputtering offense will be hard pressed to trade points with the Dallas Cowboys who are the most productive total offense in the NFL putting up 444.6 yards per game. They’re the #4 scoring offense in the NFL and are pretty solid on defense at #7 in scoring defense allowing 19.7 PPG. They’re also #7 in total defense allowing 322.1 yards per game as well as #7 in passing defense allowing 216.9 YPG. The Cowboys do have to turn around and play the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving Day but this matchup definitely will get priority. New England has a couple of other tough games on deck as they’ll play at Houston and host Kansas City. Just too many points for New England to lay against a solid defense and a potent offense. We’ll also look ‘Under’ due to the Pats offensive issues. They’ve gone ‘Under’ in 7 of 10 this season and 15 of their last 19 regulars season games.

Our Pick
BET DALLAS COWBOYS +6 OVER NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Our Pick
BET DALLAS COWBOYS/NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS OVER 44.5

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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