The ‘public’ has a tendency to write off teams after any injury to a marquee starter. In their ESPN brainwashed minds, the Carolina Panthers and Cam Newton are one and the same. It’s not that the ‘squares’ are looking for spots to bet against Carolina–in most cases, the Panthers are no longer on their radar with their charismatic starting quarterback out of action.
This game gives us a double whammy of betting against ‘public tendencies’. The average recreational bettor doesn’t appreciate the difficulty of winning week after week in the NFL. They know that the NFL emphasizes parity and have heard the old adage about ‘on any given Sunday’ more times than they can count but for some reason it never sinks in. There’s a reason that there have only been 4 teams to go undefeated in the 99 year history of the league–and only one since the schedule expanded to 16 games.
The San Francisco 49ers manage to win one of the ugliest football games seen since…well, since last year’s Super Bowl….as they prevailed over the Washington Redskins 9-0 in monsoon like conditions. Now they turn around and have to host a team that they might just be looking past. San Francisco hosts Carolina on Sunday then heads to Arizona for a divisional game against the Cardinals just 4 days later. They’ve got two more divisional games on deck. Even with an undefeated record they can’t shake the pesky Seattle Seahawks at 5-2 so the upcoming stretch of divisional play is crucial.
They also still have injury issues. Here’s the analysis from our winning play on the Redskins last week:
The 49ers are suffering from a group of injuries that might not be on the radar of the casual fan or recreational bettor but are extremely significant. They’ll play this game without three time Pro Bowl fullback Kyle Juszcyk along with starting tackles in Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. The Juszcyk injury is huge–don’t believe me you can ask San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan who said that without ‘Juice’ the Niners’ offense will “be able to do everything” because “you really can’t replace him”. One reason the aforementioned trio are vital is because they help facilitate the San Francisco rushing attack. A viable rushing attack opens play action passing opportunities for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s still a good quarterback, but his job is that much more difficult if his team can’t run the ball.
These injuries are all the more problematic facing Carolina’s excellent pass rush. The Panthers have dominated San Francisco in head to head play for years and enter on a 17-4 ATS run in the series including a 7-3 SU/9-1 ATS on the Niners’ home field.