If you’ve been paying attention you’ve already realized that we’re big on the Buffalo Bills this season. We’ve got them pegged as one of the surprise teams of the season and will be looking to bet them at every possible opportunity until further notice. This opportunity is definitely one of them. Buffalo has already cashed one ticket for us this year in their comeback win over the New York Jets last week and now they step down in class to play the New York Giants.
Giants fans had a brief glimmer of hope last week as they got a nice drive out of Eli Manning and took a 7-0 lead against the Cowboys in Dallas. They were outscored 35-10 from that point. Daniel Jones got a few plays in but it was mostly Eli Manning and the Giants seem determined to keep the veteran as their starter as long as possible. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is seriously underrated and was smart enough last year to figure out what wasn’t working and fix it. The Bills started the season averaging just 10.9 PPG on offense. They retooled everything to leverage the talents of QB Josh Allen and in the second half of their season they put up 22.8 PPG.
The Giants were bad enough last year at 5-11 but they’ll likely end up with a worse record this year. Head coach Pat Shurmur seems completely overwhelmed and his job is compounded by the fact that he doesn’t have much talent to work with. New York has been absolutely horrific at home in recent years. Last season they were 2-6 SU/1-6-1 ATS at MetLife Stadium. Over the past three seasons they’re 4-12 SU/4-11-1 at home and 1-5 SU/ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less. They’re 4-11 SU/4-10-1 ATS in all games with a pointspread between +3 and -3. They’re also on a 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS run in September games. That’s usually a sign that a team has trouble putting it all together at the start of the season and the coaching and personnel changes they’ve suffered won’t make it any easier for the Giants.
Buffalo has the better defense and particularly their secondary which is among the best in the league (as well as among the most underrated). Eli Manning can’t run at this stage of his career meaning he’ll have to throw into the Buffalo secondary to make anything happen on offense. These are two franchises heading in different directions. Note that Bills have gone ‘Under’ in 13 of their last 18 road games.